Thursday, February 16, 2012

The Distressed 2012

This is year number four of "The Distressed", which has had mixed results in the past, but is too much fun to not continue the tradition. Here are the rules:
  • 10 stocks, each 1/10th of what I usually invest per month.
  • No .OB's, .PK's., or eminent bankruptcies.
  • Generally speaking, I buy stocks I wouldn't otherwise buy.

Without further ado, I present to you the 2012 edition of "The Distressed":

Acme Packet (APKT, -58% from Apr. 2011): a slightly worse version of F5 Networks.
bebe stores (BEBE, -69% from Jul. 2005): small retailer, growing slowly.
Dendreon (DNDN, -73% from Apr. 2010): one of the choppiest charts in the history of the market. A hope to cure cancer.
Global Sources (GSOL, -82% from Oct. 2007): B2B in China? Yeah!
Hansen Medical (HNSN, -91% from Oct. 2007): a much crappier version of Intuitive Surgical.
MAKO Surgical (MAKO, -13% from Oct. 2011): OK, not very distressed...but a compliment to Hansen.
Rubicon Technology (RBCN, -64% from Jul. 2010): LED's and RFIC's. Decent fundamentals.
Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT, -93% from May 2008): hot stock tip from a friend...doesn't get any better than that.
Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ, -80% from Jun. 2007): in a demographically-promising business, but has been mismanaged for years.
Zipcar (ZIP, -52% from Apr. 2011): steady decline from IPO price. Interesting idea of car sharing vs. ownership (and maintenance).


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 15.07%
Baidu (BIDU) 9.52%
Google (GOOG) 7.50%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 6.47%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 5.56%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.44%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.32%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.42%
Apache (APA) 3.26%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.26%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 3.25%
The Distressed (APKT, BEBE, DNDN, ERTS, ESI, GSOL, HNSN, JSDA, LZB, MAKO, MSI, PCS, RBCN, RVR, SRZ, SVNT, WFC, ZIP) 2.98%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.95%
Intel (INTC) 2.63%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.58%
Blackstone (BX) 2.46%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.42%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.22%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 2.20%
DuPont (DD) 2.11%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.09%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.77%
Under Armour (UA) 1.62%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.62%
Amazon (AMZN) 1.52%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.23%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.18%

Friday, February 3, 2012

Stock Of The Month: AMZN

I wasn't planning on buying this stock this month, but the company just reported "disappointing" earnings - and the market put it on sale...


Amazon (AMZN)

Positives:
$85B market cap: roughly equal to VMware ($40B) + Target ($35B) + Netflix ($7B) + 2% of Apple (iPad and iTunes) ($5B)...plenty of upside here.
Massive revenues ($44B) and growth (44%).
Clean balance sheet ($6B cash, zero debt).

Negatives:
Expensive P/E (99 trailing, 70 forward).
Low margins (2% operating and profit).


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 14.21%
Baidu (BIDU) 9.45%
Google (GOOG) 7.54%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.23%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 5.53%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.72%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.48%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.67%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.44%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 3.21%
Apache (APA) 3.13%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.89%
Blackstone (BX) 2.72%
Intel (INTC) 2.71%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.67%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.41%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.31%
DuPont (DD) 2.27%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 2.25%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.10%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.82%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR, WFC) 1.59%
Under Armour (UA) 1.58%
Amazon (AMZN) 1.58%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.53%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.35%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.24%