Indistinguished Blogger

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2012-01-21T16:24:00.003-05:00

N.Y. Giants (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Baltimore

Outright winners: N.Y. Giants, New England

Last week: 1-3
Playoffs: 4-4
Last week outright: 2-2
Playoffs outright: 5-3

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2012-01-14T15:55:00.002-05:00

New Orleans (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND (-13½) over Denver
BALTIMORE (-7½) over Houston
GREEN BAY (-7½) over N.Y. Giants

Outright winners: New Orleans, New England, Baltimore, Green Bay

Last week: 3-1
Outright: 3-1

NFL Wild Card Picks

2012-01-06T23:11:00.001-05:00

NEW ORLEANS (-10½) over Detroit
HOUSTON (-3½) over Cincinnati
N.Y. GIANTS (-3) over Atlanta
Pittsburgh (-8) over DENVER

Outright winners: New Orleans, Houston, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh

Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 133-116-7

2011 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

2012-01-02T16:16:00.001-05:00

I didn't do a very good job pruning my portfolio like I wanted to.

And it returned (took away?) -4.3% vs. 2.1% for the S&P 500.

2012 has to be better...right?

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2011's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

Netflix (NFLX)
Bought: Jun @ $262.52, Sep @ $136.15
Year-closing price: $69.29 (-74%)
Classic "great product, lousy company". Needs to be bought out (hello, Amazon?).

Jones Soda (JSDA)
Year-opening price: $1.17
Year-closing price: $0.37 (-69%)
Last year's big winner fizzled out.

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $48.74
Year-closing price: $30.18 (-38%)
In it for the dividend, and copper is a solid underlying asset.

Chimera Investment (CIM)
Bought: Jun @ $3.91
Year-closing price: $2.51 (-36%)
Risky real estate play.

MetroPCS (PCS)
Year-opening price: $12.63
Year-closing price: $8.68 (-31%)
Buyout coming soon?

Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $119.23
Year-closing price: $90.58 (-24%)
Still the best-run oil and gas company out there, now for a discount price.

F5 Networks (FFIV)
Year-opening price: $130.16
Year-closing price: $106.12 (-19%)
Mini-Cisco is a long-term growth story.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)
Year-opening price: $10.80
Year-closing price: $9.29 (-14%)
One of these years, the capital losses won't exceed the dividend.

ITT Educational Services (ESI)
Bought: Feb @ $66.01
Year-closing price: $56.89 (-14%)
Still distressed, but has the fundamentals to turn around.

Under Armour (UA)
Bought: Jul @ $80.96
Year-closing price: $71.79 (-11%)
My history with clothes/shoes stocks not so good.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $30.99
Year-closing price: $27.56 (-11%)
Unfortunately, this is the best bank money can buy.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Year-opening price: $17.92
Bought more: Apr @ $17.37
Year-closing price: $15.96 (-11%)
A tough year for real estate's safest play.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
Year-opening price: $126.54
Year-closing price: $113.96 (-10%)
Dividend yield makes year 2011 a wash.

DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $49.88
Year-closing price: $45.78 (-8%)
Taking a breather after a fantastic 2010.

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)
Year-opening price: $20.52
Year-closing price: $18.84 (-8%)
Again, dividend yield makes year 2011 a wash.

American Capital Agency (AGNC)
Bought: Jun @ $30.36, Oct @ $27.34
Year-closing price: $28.08 (-8%)
The "best" of the real estate stocks.

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP)
Year-opening price: $20.14
Year-closing price: $19.07 (-5%)
Sleepy dividend stock.

Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $14.15
Year-closing price: $14.01 (-1%)
Volatile year ends up back where it started.

Tesla Motors (TLSA)
Bought: Aug @ $28.69
Year-closing price: $28.56 (-0%)
My pick for 2012's best stock.

Vodafone (VOD)
Year-opening price: $26.44
Year-closing price: $28.03 (6%)
Verizon Wireless' better half.

Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $593.97
Bought more: Jul @ $597.50
Year-closing price: $645.90 (9%)
Android rolling full-speed ahead.

Ace Financial (ACE)
Year-opening price: $62.25
Year-closing price: $70.12 (13%)
Another pleasantly boring year in reinsurance.

Electronic Arts (EA)
Bought: Feb @ $18.27
Year-closing price: $20.60 (13%)
Beginning to find its footing after a few tough years.

Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $21.03
Year-closing price: $24.25 (15%)
Warren Buffett likes it, and so should you.

White River Capital (RVR)
Bought: Feb @ $17.00
Year-closing price: $20.25 (19%)
Thinly traded, small market cap, mystery stock.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
Bought: Aug @ $70.46
Year-closing price: $84.95 (21%)
Safe dividend.

Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $96.53
Bought more: Mar @ $117.99, Jun @ $127.88, Jul @ $145.00
Year-closing price: $116.47 (21%)
Wild year, but the fundamentals for growth are still there.

Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Year-opening price: $37.30
Year-closing price: $46.29 (24%)
Sleepy tech stock. Should offer a dividend soon.

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $322.56
Year-closing price: $405.00 (26%)
R.I.P. Steve Jobs.

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $76.76
Year-closing price: $100.33 (31%)
The world's cafeteria has another amazing year.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $6.77
Year-closing price: $9.45 (40%)
6% dividend yield is the cherry on top.

La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Bought: Feb @ $8.18
Year-closing price: $11.90 (45%)
A furniture turnaround story?

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $257.75
Bought more: Apr @ $371.50, Jul @ $357.24
Year-closing price: $463.01 (80%)
Sorta called this last year. A good year for the robots.

2011 Stock Recap: The Departed

2012-01-01T12:22:00.009-05:00

One way to sum up my previous year investment-wise would be this: I didn't sell any stocks for a higher price in 2011, than I could have had in 2010. Not one.

Another way would be this: Every year, I mentally project what this "Departed" post will look like...short and sweet. Every year, it turns out to be way too long, with too many tickers of too many stocks that I never should have owned in the first place.

Maybe 2012 will be the year. Then again, I'm already looking forward to selecting this year's new additions to The Distressed.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2011's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

E*Trade (ETFC)
Year-opening price: $16.00
Sold: Jan @ $15.60 (-3%)
Year-closing price: $7.96 (-50%)
Barely made it to 2011; continued its downward spiral.

GigaMedia (GIGM)
Year-opening price: $1.48
Sold: Jan @ $1.40 (-5%)
Year-closing price: $0.83 (-44%)
Chinese penny stock not a smart gamble.

Borders (BGP)
Year-opening price: $0.90
Sold: Jan @ $0.84 (-7%)
Stock-closing price: $0.23 (-74%)
Got out before bankruptcy.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)
Year-opening price: $4.60
Sold: Jan @ $4.24 (-8%)
Year-closing price: $0.20 (-96%)
Solar stock not-so-brilliant.

Citigroup (C)
Year-opening price: $47.30
Sold: May @ $42.30 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $26.76 (-43%)
The worst bank money can buy.

Ford (F)
Year-opening price: $16.79
Sold: Mar @ $14.00 (-17%)
Year-closing price: $10.76 (-36%)
Sold for a nice multi-year profit, but not at the top.

China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NPD)
Bought: Feb @ $4.00
Sold: May @ $3.26 (-19%)
Year-closing price: $1.51 (-62%)
Soon-to-be Chinese penny stock.

Cherokee (CHKE)
Year-opening price: $18.81
Sold: Aug @ $15.00 (-20%)
Year-closing price: $11.67 (-38%)
Declining dividend and stock price a bad combination.

Sketchers (SKX)
Bought: Feb @ $23.43
Sold: May @ $18.35 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $12.12 (-48%)
Follows K-Swiss as another poor footwear stock pick.

China Real Estate Information (CRIC)
Year-opening price: $9.60
Sold: Feb @ $7.30 (-24%)
Year-closing price: $4.05 (-58%)
Another Chinese stock failure.

Motorola Mobility (MMI)
Year-opening price: $30.24
Sold: Aug @ $22.66 (-25%)
Year-closing price: $38.80 (28%)
Wait, is there no negative sign next to that year-closing percentage?? I sold too early (i.e. before Google swooped in).

Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $25.37
Sold: Jun @ $18.60 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $4.29 (-83%)
Declining dividend and stock price an even worse combination.

Cree (CREE)
Year-opening price: $65.89
Sold: Mar @ $48.00 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $22.04 (-67%)
LED business is tough.

American International Group (AIG)
Year-opening price: $57.62
Sold: Feb @ $40.00 (-31%)
Year-closing price: $23.20 (-60%)
Still difficult to valuate this financial house of cards.

Great Northern Iron (GNI)
Year-opening price: $143.00
Sold: Apr @ $95.56 (-33%)
Year-closing price: $110.25 (-23%)
Sold at the bottom.

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $15.45
Sold: Jul @ $9.91 (-36%)
Year-closing price: $7.99 (-48%)
As long-time readers know, was one of my favorite dividend stocks...couldn't ignore the capital losses though.

Nokia (NOK)
Year-opening price: $10.32
Sold: Jun @ $6.52 (-37%)
Year-closing price: $4.82 (-53%)
Hitching their wagon to Microsoft's star not working out so well.

STEC (STEC)
Bought: Feb @ $23.50
Sold: Aug @ $10.58 (-55%)
Year-closing price: $8.59 (-63%)
Not the next SanDisk.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2011-12-31T20:37:00.001-05:00

Dallas (+3) over N.Y. GIANTS
Tennessee (-1½) over HOUSTON
Baltimore (-2) over CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh (-7) over CLEVELAND
NEW ORLEANS (-7½) over Carolina
N.Y. Jets (+3) over MIAMI
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Buffalo
OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego
DENVER (-3) over Kansas City
Seattle (+3) over ARIZONA
Chicago (+1½) over MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay (+10½) over ATLANTA
Detroit (-4) over GREEN BAY
San Francisco (-10½) over ST. LOUIS
Indianapolis (+3½) over JACKSONVILLE
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Washington

Last week: 10-6
Season: 127-107-6

NFL Week 16 Picks

2011-12-22T19:42:00.003-05:00

Houston (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco (-1) over SEATTLE
DETROIT (-2) over San Diego
PITTSBURGH (-13) over St. Louis
CAROLINA (-7½) over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia (+2) over DALLAS
Denver (-2½) over BUFFALO
N.Y. Giants (+3) over N.Y. JETS
BALTIMORE (-12½) over Cleveland
Miami (+9½) over NEW ENGLAND
Arizona (+4) over CINCINNATI
TENNESSEE (-7½) over Jacksonville
WASHINGTON (-7) over Minnesota
Oakland (+2½) over KANSAS CITY
GREEN BAY (-11) over Chicago
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Atlanta

Last week: 6-9-1
Season: 117-101-6

NFL Week 15 Picks

2011-12-15T19:27:00.002-05:00

ATLANTA (-13½) over Jacksonville
Dallas (-7) over TAMPA BAY
Cleveland (+7) over ARIZONA
N.Y. GIANTS (-6½) over Washington
Green Bay (-13½) over KANSAS CITY
New Orleans (-7) over MINNESOTA
CHICAGO (-3½) over Seattle
N.Y. Jets (+2½) over PHILADELPHIA
HOUSTON (-6) over Carolina
Tennessee (-6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati (-6½) over ST. LOUIS
Detroit (-1) over OAKLAND
Baltimore (-2½) over SAN DIEGO
Miami (+1½) over BUFFALO
DENVER (+7½) over New England
Pittsburgh (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 111-92-5

NFL Week 14 Picks

2011-12-08T00:49:00.003-05:00

PITTSBURGH (-14) over Cleveland
DETROIT (-9½) over Minnesota
Buffalo (+7) over SAN DIEGO
DENVER (-3) over Chicago
San Francisco (-4) over ARIZONA
DALLAS (-4) over N.Y. Giants
Atlanta (-3) over CAROLINA
New England (-8) over WASHINGTON
Philadelphia (+3) over MIAMI
New Orleans (-3½) over TENNESSEE
N.Y. JETS (-10½) over Kansas City
Tampa Bay (-2½) over JACKSONVILLE
BALTIMORE (-16½) over Indianapolis
GREEN BAY (-11½) over Oakland
Houston (+3) over CINCINNATI
SEATTLE (-10) over St. Louis

Last week: 10-6
Season: 104-84-4

NFL Week 13 Picks

2011-12-01T19:25:00.003-05:00

Philadelphia (-3) over SEATTLE
N.Y. Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON
Carolina (+2½) over TAMPA BAY
Denver (even) over MINNESOTA
SAN FRANCISCO (-13½) over St. Louis
Dallas (-4½) over ARIZONA
Green Bay (-6½) over N.Y. GIANTS
NEW ENGLAND (-20½) over Indianapolis
CHICAGO (-7) over Kansas City
Oakland (+3½) over MIAMI
PITTSBURGH (-7) over Cincinnati
Baltimore (-6½) over CLEVELAND
HOUSTON (+2) over Atlanta
Tennessee (+1½) over BUFFALO
NEW ORLEANS (-9) over Detroit
San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Last week: 9-7
Season: 94-78-4

NFL Week 12 Picks

2011-11-23T22:45:00.002-05:00

Green Bay (-6) over DETROIT
DALLAS (-7) over Miami
San Francisco (+3½) over BALTIMORE
N.Y. JETS (-9) over Buffalo
Pittsburgh (-10½) over KANSAS CITY
Denver (+5½) over SAN DIEGO
New England (-3½) over PHILADELPHIA
Washington (+3) over SEATTLE
CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland
ATLANTA (-9½) over Minnesota
Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE
Carolina (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Houston (-6½) over JACKSONVILLE
ST. LOUIS (-3) over Arizona
OAKLAND (-3½) over Chicago
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over N.Y. Giants

Last week: 9-5
Season: 85-71-4

NFL Week 11 Picks

2011-11-17T20:28:00.003-05:00

DENVER (+6) over N.Y. Jets
BALTIMORE (-6½) over Cincinnati
Oakland (+1½) over MINNESOTA
DETROIT (-7) over Carolina
GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay
Jacksonville (+1) over CLEVELAND
SAN FRANCISCO (-10½) over Arizona
Seattle (+3) over ST. LOUIS
CHICAGO (-4) over San Diego
N.Y. GIANTS (-6) over Philadelphia
MIAMI (-3) over Buffalo
Dallas (-7) over WASHINGTON
ATLANTA (-6½) over Tennessee
NEW ENGLAND (-15½) over Kansas City

Last week: 10-6
Season: 76-66-4

NFL Week 10 Picks

2011-11-10T18:37:00.003-05:00

Oakland (+7) over SAN DIEGO
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Jacksonville
CAROLINA (-3½) over Tennessee
Washington (+4) over MIAMI
New Orleans (+1) over ATLANTA
Houston (-3½) over TAMPA BAY
St. Louis (+2½) over CLEVELAND
PHILADELPHIA (-13½) over Arizona
Baltimore (-6½) over SEATTLE
SAN FRANCISCO (-3½) over N.Y. Giants
New England (+2½) over N.Y. JETS
DALLAS (-5) over Buffalo
Denver (+3) over KANSAS CITY
Detroit (+2½) over CHICAGO
Pittsburgh (-4½) over CINCINNATI
GREEN BAY (-12½) over Minnesota

Last week: 8-6
Season: 66-60-4

NFL Week 9 Picks

2011-11-05T23:27:00.001-04:00

N.Y. Jets (+2½) over BUFFALO
San Francisco (-4) over WASHINGTON
DALLAS (-11) over Seattle
OAKLAND (-7) over Denver
Cincinnati (+3) over TENNESSEE
St. Louis (+2½) over ARIZONA
N.Y. Giants (+10) over NEW ENGLAND
Green Bay (-5½) over SAN DIEGO
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore
HOUSTON (-10½) over Cleveland
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Tampa Bay
KANSAS CITY (-4) over Miami
Atlanta (-6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
PHILADELPHIA (-7½) over Chicago

Last week: 7-6
Season: 58-54-4

NFL Week 8 Picks

2011-10-29T20:16:00.002-04:00

CAROLINA (-3½) over Minnesota
BALTIMORE (-13) over Arizona
N.Y. GIANTS (-10) over Miami
BUFFALO (-4) over Washington
New Orleans (-13½) over ST. LOUIS
PITTSBURGH (+2½) over New England
SAN FRANCISCO (-9½) over Cleveland
Cincinnati (-1) over SEATTLE
PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas
HOUSTON (-9½) over Jacksonville
DENVER (+2½) over Detroit
TENNESSEE (-9½) over Indianapolis
San Diego (-4) over KANSAS CITY

Last week: 6-7
Season: 51-48-4

NFL Week 7 Picks

2011-10-22T21:21:00.002-04:00

Indianapolis (+14½) over NEW ORLEANS
Green Bay (-9½) over MINNESOTA
DALLAS (-13½) over St. Louis
Pittsburgh (-3½) over ARIZONA
San Diego (-1) over N.Y. JETS
Atlanta (+3½) over DETROIT
Denver (+1) over MIAMI
Houston (+3½) over TENNESSEE
Seattle (+2½) over CLEVELAND
CAROLINA (-1) over Washington
OAKLAND (-3½) over Kansas City
Tampa Bay (+1) over Chicago
Baltimore (-9½) over JACKSONVILLE

Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 45-41-4

NFL Week 6 Picks

2011-10-16T03:06:00.001-04:00

ATLANTA (-4) over Carolina
Indianapolis (+6½) over CINCINNATI
Buffalo (+3½) over N.Y. GIANTS
San Francisco (+4½) over DETROIT
PITTSBURGH (-13) over Jacksonville
NEW ENGLAND (-6½) over Dallas
New Orleans (-6) over TAMPA BAY
CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota
Philadelphia (-2½) over WASHINGTON
GREEN BAY (-14½) over St. Louis
BALTIMORE (-7) over Houston
OAKLAND (-7) over Cleveland
N.Y. JETS (-7½) over Miami

Last week: 6-7
Season: 37-37-3

Stock Of The Month: AGNC

2011-10-13T20:51:00.003-04:00

First off, I bought a little more Netflix (NLFX) last month to get my cost basis down, as CEO Reed Hastings continues his quest to become the most notorious business school case study subject ever...it's down even more since I bought. While I love Netflix the service, I'd advise to follow NFLX the stock at your own peril.

Now on to the proper Stock Of The Month.

This June, I couldn't decide between two REITs, so I decided buy half of both and see if one would do better. Chimera (CIM) was the loser, sinking 29% since. The winner, down only 5%, is:

American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Positives:
Gargantuan 21% dividend yield, at a sustainable 75% payout ratio.
Healthy profit and operating margins (93%).

Negatives:
Low insider (0.04%) and institutional (17.20%) holdings suggest a prevailing lack of confidence.
Usual caveats of a housing/financial stock.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 14.34%
Baidu (BIDU) 10.61%
Google (GOOG) 8.03%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 6.35%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.94%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.94%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.28%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.71%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.61%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.49%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 3.36%
Apache (APA) 3.06%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.73%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.71%
Intel (INTC) 2.69%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.59%
Blackstone (BX) 2.49%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.28%
DuPont (DD) 2.17%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.87%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR, WFC) 1.71%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.67%
Under Armour (UA) 1.64%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.56%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.37%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.31%

NFL Week 5 Picks

2011-10-08T19:10:00.002-04:00

Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO
Green Bay (-5½) over ATLANTA
San Diego (-4) over DENVER
N.Y. Jets (+7½) over NEW ENGLAND
Arizona (+3) over MINNESOTA
N.Y. GIANTS (-10) over Seattle
PITTSBURGH (-3½) over Tennessee
Cincinnati (-1) over JACKSONVILLE
New Orleans (-6½) over CAROLINA
HOUSTON (-5½) over Oakland
Kansas City (+1½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Tampa Bay (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
DETROIT (-5½) over Chicago

Last week: 8-8
Season: 31-30-3

NFL Week 4 Picks

2011-10-01T22:16:00.003-04:00

New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
GREEN BAY (-12½) over Denver
Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Giants (-1½) over ARIZONA
OAKLAND (+6) over New England
PHILADELPHIA (-9½) over San Francisco
Carolina (+6½) over CHICAGO
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Minnesota
Buffalo (-3) over CINCINNATI
Tennessee (-1) over CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE (-4) over N.Y. Jets
ST. LOUIS (+2½) over Washington
Atlanta (-4½) over SEATTLE
Detroit (+2½) over DALLAS
Pittsburgh (+3½) over HOUSTON
TAMPA BAY (-10) over Indianapolis

Last week: 4-11-1
Season: 23-22-3

NFL Week 3 Picks

2011-09-26T12:16:00.000-04:00

New England (-7) over BUFFALO
Arizona (-3) over SEATTLE
Atlanta (+1½) over TAMPA BAY
Baltimore (-5) over ST. LOUIS
Green Bay (-4) over CHICAGO
Houston (+4) over NEW ORLEANS
CAROLINA (-3) over Jacksonville
Detroit (-3) over MINNESOTA
TENNESSEE (-6½) over Denver
CLEVELAND (-1½) over Miami
Pittsburgh (-10½) over INDIANAPOLIS
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over N.Y. Giants
N.Y. Jets (-3) over OAKLAND
CINCINNATI (-2½) over San Francisco
SAN DIEGO (-14½) over Kansas City
Washington (+5½) over DALLAS

Last week: 10-4-2
Season: 19-11-2

NFL Week 2 Picks

2011-09-16T21:12:00.002-04:00

NEW ORLEANS (-6½) over Chicago
Cincinnati (+3½) over DENVER
San Diego (+6½) over NEW ENGLAND
Houston (-3) over MIAMI
Dallas (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO
ATLANTA (+2) over Philadelphia
Tampa Bay (+3) over MINNESOTA
Green Bay (-9½) over CAROLINA
PITTSBURGH (-14) over Seattle
Baltimore (-5½) over TENNESSEE
Arizona (+3½) over WASHINGTON
N.Y. JETS (-8½) over Jacksonville
Oakland (+3) over BUFFALO
DETROIT (-7½) over Kansas City
INDIANAPOLIS (+1½) over Cleveland
N.Y. GIANTS (-6) over St. Louis

Last week: 9-7

NFL Week 1 Picks

2011-09-08T20:40:00.002-04:00

GREEN BAY (-4½) over New Orleans
Detroit (+1½) over TAMPA BAY
Dallas (+6) over N.Y. JETS
SAN DIEGO (-9) over Minnesota
Seattle (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta (-1½) over CHICAGO
KANSAS CITY (-3½) over Buffalo
Tennessee (-1½) over JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati (+6½) over CLEVELAND
Philadelphia (-3½) over ST. LOUIS
HOUSTON (-9) over Indianapolis
ARIZONA (-6½) over Carolina
Pittsburgh (-1½) over BALTIMORE
N.Y. Giants (-1½) over WASHINGTON
Oakland (+3) over DENVER
New England (-7) over MIAMI

Fearless NFL Predictions: Regular Season

2011-09-08T00:17:00.005-04:00

I went through the entire NFL regular season schedule in about 10 minutes, picking the winner for each game. The resulting standings seem close enough to what I might have predicted otherwise...

AFC East

New England 13-3

New York Jets 13-3

Buffalo 4-12

Miami 3-13

AFC North

Pittsburgh 15-1

Baltimore 12-4

Cleveland 8-8

Cincinnati 3-13

AFC South

Houston 13-3

Indianapolis 6-10

Tennessee 5-11

Jacksonville 1-15

AFC West

San Diego 11-5

Oakland 7-9

Kansas City 6-10

Denver 3-13

NFC East

Philadelphia 13-3

Dallas 12-4

New York Giants 11-5

Washington 3-13

NFC North

Green Bay 13-3

Detroit 11-5

Chicago 7-9

Minnesota 3-13

NFC South

Atlanta 14-2

New Orleans 14-2

Tampa Bay 9-7

Carolina 4-12

NFC West

St. Louis 9-7

Arizona 6-10

Seattle 3-13

San Francisco 1-15

Stocks Of The Month: TSLA, KMP

2011-08-03T23:58:00.002-04:00

I was going to have just one stock of the month, but since I seem to enjoy portfolio churn so much, there are two.

Gone is Cherokee (CHKE), due to a declining dividend and stock price; as well as both Motorola Mobility (MMI) and STEC (STEC), due to being insignificant holdings percentage-wise.

In their place are a speculative and a dividend stock respectively...

Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Positives:

Pure play on the long-term trend of automobiles transitioning from gasoline to electric power.

Super-cool cars (they manufacture and sell their own brand) and technology (they supply powertrains for Daimler and Toyota).

Negatives:

Horrible fundamentals across the board (negative earnings, margins, cash flows, etc., etc.)

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)

Positives:

High dividend yield (6.6%) and a nearly 20-year history of increasing dividend payments.

Steady, positive cash flows.

Negatives:

Revenues (+3%) and earnings (-36%) not very good.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 13.09%

Baidu (BIDU) 11.55%

Google (GOOG) 8.20%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.16%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.33%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.60%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.36%

Apache (APA) 3.95%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.67%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.57%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.57%

Blackstone (BX) 2.68%

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.52%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.52%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.46%

Intel (INTC) 2.38%

DuPont (DD) 2.37%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.26%

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.97%

The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR, WFC) 1.83%

American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.76%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.70%

Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.50%

Under Armour (UA) 1.49%

Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.44%

Netflix (NFLX) 1.18%

Farewell To DOM

2011-07-16T01:08:00.003-04:00

I've owned Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) since November 2007. It was my Stock Of The Month just 2 months ago. But in a first half of 2011 that has been mostly foul-ups, bloopers, and blunders, I sold it all on Friday after it hit an all-time low closing price on Thursday. I had set a triggered sell when I last bought it, thinking it would never actually be needed. As DOM sunk lower and lower in recent weeks, I still thought it would bounce back. It didn't - the capital losses were overwhelming the dividend, and I had to admit defeat and move on.

Fortunately, DOM was still around 5.5% of my portfolio, so I had a great opportunity to fill some long-standing orders:

Bought enough Baidu (BIDU) to get back to where I was before, thereby (as best as is possible) undoing my worst stock sale ever;
Bought enough Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) to get back to where I was before as well; and
Used the remainder to buy Google (GOOG). I'd like to say that I got in before their fantastic last-quarter results were announced and the stock jumped 13%, but of course, I didn't.

Those are, as the reader might notice, three non-dividend-paying stocks. I feel that the chance to scratch some items off my to-do list outweighed the need to immediately replace DOM with a similar stock. I do have a few large dividend-paying candidates in mind though, and will be buying them as part of my normal monthly investments going forward.

NFL (Franchise) Quarterback Rankings

2011-07-15T00:25:00.004-04:00

For a while now, I've been thinking about ranking each NFL franchise in all aspects...players, coaches, front office, fanbase, stadium, etc. Then it became obvious: the QB position basically sums up the entire state-of-the-franchise by itself...something like "the quarterback's level of play ultimately determines: the foresight of the front office, the effectiveness of teammates and coaches, the mood of the fanbase, and whether the fancy modern stadium gets built." There are a few exceptions in the following list (SD, STL, OAK, and CIN are clearly too high), but overall the correlation between QB and franchise status is strong.

Tier One - Elite

1. Aaron Rodgers (GB)

2. Tom Brady (NE)

3. Peyton Manning (IND)

4. Drew Brees (NO)

5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

6. Philip Rivers (SD)

7. Michael Vick (PHI)

Tier Two - Presumed Elite

8. Sam Bradford (STL)

9. Josh Freeman (TB)

10. Joe Flacco (BAL)

11. Matt Ryan (ATL)

12. Matthew Stafford (DET)

13. Mark Sanchez (NYJ)

Tier Three - "He's Our Guy"

14. Tony Romo (DAL)

15. Matt Schaub (HOU)

16. Eli Manning (NYG)

17. Jay Cutler (CHI)

18. Matt Cassel (KC)

19. Jason Campbell (OAK)

Tier Four - Hopefuls

20. Andy Dalton (CIN)

21. Tim Tebow (DEN)

22. Jake Locker (TEN)

23. Blaine Gabbert (JAC)

24. Cam Newton (CAR)

25. Colt McCoy (CLE)

26. Colin Kaepernick (SF)

27. Christian Ponder (MIN)

Tier Five - "Suck For Luck"

28. Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF)

29. Chad Henne (MIA)

30. Charlie Whitehurst (SEA)

31. John Skelton (ARI)

32. John Beck (WAS)

Stock Of The Month: UA

2011-07-07T20:02:00.002-04:00

At the halfway point of 2011, things aren't looking so good.

My portfolio is trailing the S&P 500 by nearly 10%. This is due to both owning seemingly good stocks that went terribly wrong, and also buying stocks that had no chance to be good in the first place.

So it's time for a comeback...a "game-two-of-the finals-and-the-opponent's-star-player-held-his-follow-through-a-little-too-long-on-a-corner-three" order of comeback. It's not going to be easy. But I'll try to do it the only way I know how: one stock at a time.

Under Armour (UA)

Positives:

Excellent revenue growth (36%) and earnings growth (69%).

Undervalued market cap ($4B) vs. competitors Adidas ($17B) and Nike ($44B).

Negatives:

Mediocre profit margin (6%), operating margin (10%), ROA (12%) and ROE (16%).

Negative cash flows.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.95%

Baidu (BIDU) 8.94%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.35%

Google (GOOG) 5.82%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 5.75%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.52%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.33%

Apache (APA) 4.23%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.75%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.69%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.68%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.36%

Blackstone (BX) 3.01%

Cherokee (CHKE) 2.86%

DuPont (DD) 2.63%

Intel (INTC) 2.54%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.49%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.49%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.41%

The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, PCS, RVR, STEC, WFC) 2.36%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.15%

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.05%

American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.83%

Under Armour (UA) 1.69%

Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.62%

Netflix (NFLX) 1.33%

The Slow And Steady Mavericks

2011-06-15T00:43:00.001-04:00

While handicapping who would win the NBA Championship way back in April, I ranked the Dallas Mavericks as 7th out of 16. After all, they've been good for so long...but never great. Greatness requires some luck with the bounce of the ping-pong balls, or a high-profile free agent signing or three.

Or so we thought. In their 11th consecutive season of 50+ wins in the regular season, the Mavs finally won their first championship. Their construction by Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson has been so painstaking - over such a long time - it was all too easy to overlook how great they had become.

Let's look at the franchise, just like it was built...piece by piece.

Peja Stojakovic (FA, 2011) may not have played well in the Finals, but he was able to avenge Sacramento's 2002 loss to the Lakers, as a part of the historic 3-pointer barrage in the clinching game 4.
Brian Cardinal and Ian Mahinmi (FA, 2010) are journeymen willing to do the dirty work - drawing charges, hustling after loose balls, taking hard fouls - that every championship team needs.
Tyson Chandler (trade with CHA, 2010) did in fact change the team's postseason DNA; his defensive energy and attitude are essential. He also ended an embarrassing run of overpaid, ineffective centers (Shawn Bradley, Erick Dampier, DeSagana Diop).
Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson (trade with WAS, 2010) were part of the Caron Butler deal, which brought the first overt presence of "toughness" to the Mavs.
Shawn Marion (sign and trade with TOR, 2009) was lost in both Miami and Toronto; his stats were no doubt inflated in Phoenix's open system. This postseason, he was a stunningly effective player in all phases.
Jason Kidd (trade with NJ, 2008) seemed like a desperate knee-jerk reaction to the Pau Gasol trade. Somehow it payed off three seasons later. Kidd brings calm leadership, offensive genius, and a knockdown 3-point shot after years and years of refinement.
Rick Carlisle (2008) isn't merely a scheme runner, or a disciplinarian, or a master motivator. He simply does whatever is necessary to ensure his players are in a position to succeed.
J.J. Barea (FA, 2006) takes and makes shots that swing the momentum of games and series. His effectiveness, at his underwhelming stature, must be demoralizing to the opponent.
Jason Terry (trade with ATL, 2004) is a completely fearless scorer and competitor. He is no sixth man...but he is possibly the most unlikely 2nd option on an NBA champion ever.
Mark Cuban (bought team in 2000) is as passionate about his team, his fans, and his league as any owner in professional sports. His antics may overshadow it, but he's also one of the smartest as well.
Dirk Nowitzki (draft via trade with MIL, 1998) best exemplifies what the Mavericks are all about. He could have remained satisfied with being a perennial all-star and max-contract player. After the Finals loss of 2006, he decided that good wasn't good enough, and worked relentlessly to improve every aspect of his game: his post-up moves; his unguardable fadeaway; his ability to read defenses and make the right decision with the ball. He just completed his finest season at the age of 32 and shows no signs of slowing down. He might be the most efficiently versatile scorer in the history of the game.

What jumps out from the list above is that everyone has been disregarded, and/or outright discarded, at some point(s) in their careers. Individually or collectively, they could have easily given up and decided to try something else. Instead, they stayed the course and continued to slowly and surely work towards their ultimate goal. It is nice to see that their long-term vision has been achieved.

Stocks Of The Month: NFLX, BIDU

2011-06-07T21:35:00.002-04:00

I've been watching this stock for literally hundreds of dollars, but there is still room to grow.

Netflix (NFLX)

Positives:

Huge revenue growth this year (50%), estimated next quarter (52%) and next year (34%).

Good ROA (24%), outstanding ROE (89%).

Relatively small market cap ($14B) vs. competitors DirecTV ($37B), Comcast ($66B), Amazon ($85B).

International expansion underway.

Negatives:

P/E of 78, forward P/E of 40.

Likely some form of "bandwidth usage tax" forthcoming.

The only stock I can see that has better growth and profitability metrics is Baidu (BIDU), whose fundamentals have been covered previously. I have added some more this month, and will continue to accumulate.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.84%

Baidu (BIDU) 8.09%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.40%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.48%

Google (GOOG) 5.89%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.81%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.69%

Apache (APA) 4.20%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.80%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.69%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.42%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.34%

Cherokee (CHKE) 3.25%

Blackstone (BX) 3.01%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.93%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.58%

Intel (INTC) 2.57%

DuPont (DD) 2.53%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.50%

The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, PCS, RVR, STEC, WFC) 2.37%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.18%

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.15%

American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.98%

Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.84%

Netflix (NFLX) 1.28%

The Summer Of (Stock) Discontent

2011-06-01T21:40:00.007-04:00

Sometimes I sell a stock because it has incurred capital losses. Sometimes I sell a stock because the company is in trouble. Sometimes I sell a stock because its dividend is at-risk.

Sometimes I sell a stock because I get tired of looking at it every day.

Or sometimes, all of these things come together in an overwhelming confluence of ineptitude, where I, the chooser of the stock, is left to wonder...what the heck went wrong here? How did I allow this to happen?

Earlier this year, Great Northern Iron (GNI) imploded. Today, I sold both Frontline (FRO) and Nokia (NOK) after they drifted down 37% and 25% respectively from where I bought.

These should have been three pleasantly boring dividend stocks, but turned out to be volatile losers. Let's examine where I went wrong vs. my previously stated investing philosophy.

"My intentions are to own stocks that"...

"are long-term, 'buy-and-hold' investments" - GNI is a trust with an expiration date of 2015, so it can't even pass this most basic of thresholds. FRO and NOK are presumably going to be around longer.
"represent great underlying companies and/or valuable assets" - GNI's underlying asset isn't minerals; it's the dissolving trust. FRO is a fleet of shipping tankers - not good. NOK is a technology portfolio that was cool 10 years ago - even worse.
"have excellence across as many metrics as possible" - here's where things get tricky. GNI has outstanding stats everywhere...profitability, ROA/ROE, revenue growth, earnings growth. Of course, none of that matters; you can probably guess why by now. FRO's stats are, quite frankly, awful. NOK's aren't much better, other than being a cash cow.
"are cheap by valuation" - cheap for a reason, no?
"pay outstanding, stable, well-funded dividends" - the dividends are large, but flawed. GNI's just isn't enough given its shelf life. FRO's is notoriously inconsistent. NOK's is a great bet to be slashed or suspended in the near future.
"promise extraordinary growth" - a big ol' "N/A" here.

The proceeds from the sales of Frontline and Nokia went towards buying shares of American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) and Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM), two REITs with large dividends of their own. I would ordinarily write up some nice things to say about them, but I'm too afraid I'd look like an idiot in a few months.

The proper Stock Of The Month will appear next week.

Fearless NBA Predictions: Finals

2011-05-31T19:46:00.002-04:00

What we learned from the Conference Finals:
Chicago: really needs a second option on offense, and a legitimate starting SG...Carlos Boozer is one of the worst contracts in the NBA...team played hard all year, but couldn't find that "extra gear" for the playoffs...Rose's presence will guarantee that they will contend for a championship for the next 10 years.
Oklahoma City: who is to blame - Westbrook for not deferring to Durant? Brooks for allowing Westbrook to play selfishly? Durant for not being selfish enough and demanding the ball? Probably a combination of all three...if I were coach/GM, I'd start Harden at PG, move Westbrook to SG, and if Durant still isn't getting his looks, I'd trade Westbrook for the best deal available...Durant's presence will guarantee that they will contend for a championship for the next 10 years.

NBA Finals:
(2) Miami vs. (3) Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki will score a ton of points; no one in the league can defend him, not even LeBron James...expect the Heat to guard Nowitzki with single-coverage, and stay at home on the Mavs' many 3-point shooters (Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Peja Stojakovic, J.J. Barea, etc.)...can Dwyane Wade knock down any outside shots?...super-secret fun matchup of the series: Tyson Chandler vs. Joel Anthony...Heat have the best perimeter defenders in the league; if Dallas can consistently make their 3's, they will win...Mavericks have the best interior defense in the league; if Miami can consistently get to the basket, they will win...this promises to be an incredibly entertaining, evenly-matched Finals...my heart says Dallas, my mind says Heat in 6.

Last round: 2-0
Postseason: 10-4

2011 NBA Draft Prospects List

2011-05-22T14:58:00.003-04:00

In my bid to become the Mike Mayock of the NBA (if not the NFL), here are my "top 5" lists for each position. Like Mayock's lists, these are ordered by how successful I believe the prospects' careers will be, not by their projected draft order in June.

Point Guards:

1. Kyrie Irving

2. Brandon Knight

3. Darius Morris

4. Jacob Pullen

5. Nolan Smith

Shooting Guards:

1. Reggie Jackson

2. Kemba Walker

3. Jimmer Fredette

4. Alec Burks

5. Shelvin Mack

Small Forwards:

1. Derrick Williams

2. Kawhi Leonard

3. Tyler Honeycutt

4. Chris Singleton

5. Damian Saunders

Power Forwards:

1. Kenneth Faried

2. Tobias Harris

3. Trey Thompkins

4. Justin Harper

5. JaJuan Johnson

Centers:

1. Enes Kanter

2. Bismack Biyambo

3. Jeremy Tyler

4. Nikola Vucevic

5. Keith Benson

Fearless NBA Predictions: Conference Finals

2011-05-15T17:53:00.002-04:00

What we learned from Round 2:

Atlanta: as I've said before, this team has reached its ceiling. They have found their PG in Teague though
Boston: like San Antonio...if they contend over the next 2-3 years, the Big 3 won't be leading the way
L.A. Lakers: unprepared, unmotivated, old, slow. If this were a fantasy team and/or NBA contracts weren't guaranteed, most of the team would be gone by next year. As it is, I think they are mostly stuck with what they have
Memphis: the league's toughest, gutstiest team, which unfortunately I snoozed on all year. Must resign Gasol at any cost

And most importantly...these playoffs, like every NBA playoffs, are not a fluke - there has been a changing of the guard where the old standbys (Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, Magic) have been replaced by younger, better teams.

Remaining NBA Playoff Teams' W-L Records Vs. Other Remaining Playoff Teams, and Conference Finals Opponent:

Chicago: 6-1 (3-0 vs. MIA)
Dallas: 4-3 (2-1 vs. OKC)
Oklahoma City: 3-4 (1-2 vs. DAL)
Miami: 1-6 (0-3 vs. CHI)

Without further ado, the conference final predictions, and the best player on the floor...

Eastern Conference:
(2) Miami over (1) Chicago in 7 (James)

Western Conference:
(3) Dallas over (4) Oklahoma City in 6 (Nowitzki)

Stock Of The Month: DOM

2011-05-03T21:06:00.004-04:00

As previously mentioned and bought in 2010, 2008, and 2007 - what can I say, DOM is my go-to dividend stock, and the chartist in me says it's easy to know when to buy.

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)

Positives:
7% dividend yield.
As a trust, has a 100% payout ratio and is a pure dividend stock.

Negatives:
Little to no opportunity for capital gains.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.87%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 8.04%
Baidu (BIDU) 7.37%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.96%
Google (GOOG) 5.79%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.44%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.50%
Apache (APA) 4.40%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.77%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.67%
Blackstone (BX) 3.32%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.28%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.27%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.23%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.98%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 2.85%
DuPont (DD) 2.66%
Intel (INTC) 2.59%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.59%
Frontline (FRO) 2.36%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.32%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.24%
Nokia (NOK) 2.02%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.87%

Fearless NBA Predictions: Conference Semifinals

2011-04-30T22:12:00.003-04:00

What we learned from Round 1:

Denver, Indiana, Philadelphia: good young teams in need of a superstar

New Orleans: as long as Paul is on board and healthy, they are a playoff team...probably one more year

New York: needs to learn to play defense, rebound

Orlando: short-term front office decisions to appease team superstar backfire. Haven't we seen this before?

Portland: stuck as a lower-seed playoff team for the foreseeable future

San Antonio: if they contend over the next 2-3 years, the Big 3 won't be leading the way

Remaining NBA Playoff Teams' W-L Records Vs. Other Remaining Playoff Teams, and 2nd Round Opponent:

Chicago: 13-5 (2-1 vs. ATL)

L.A. Lakers: 10-8 (2-1 vs. DAL)

Dallas: 10-8 (1-2 vs. LAL)

Boston: 10-9 (3-1 vs. MIA)

Memphis: 10-10 (3-1 vs. OKC)

Oklahoma City: 8-10 (1-3 vs. MEM)

Miami: 8-11 (1-3 vs. BOS)

Atlanta: 5-13 (1-2 vs. CHI)

Without further ado, the Round 2 predictions, and the best player on the floor...

Eastern Conference:

(1) Chicago over (5) Atlanta in 5 (Rose)

(3) Boston over (2) Miami in 6 (Rondo)

Western Conference:

(2) L.A. Lakers over (3) Dallas in 6 (Bryant)

(4) Oklahoma City over (8) Memphis in 7 (Durant)

NBA Playoff Teams' W-L Records In Games That Mattered

2011-04-27T20:18:00.007-04:00

I couldn't find this elsewhere on the intergoogle, and it took a bit of time to compile on my own, so I thought I'd share. I was looking to see what NBA playoff teams did well in "games that mattered" during the 2010-11 regular season, and if that projected to the playoffs.

NBA Playoff Teams' W-L Records Vs. Other Playoff Teams, and 1st Round Opponent:

Boston: 28-14 (4-0 vs. NYK)
L.A. Lakers: 26-15 (4-0 vs. NOR)
Chicago: 26-14 (3-1 vs. IND)
San Antonio: 25-18 (2-2 vs. MEM)
Oklahoma City: 23-18 (3-1 vs. DEN)
Dallas: 22-20 (2-2 vs. POR)
Miami: 21-20 (3-0 vs. PHI)
Memphis: 21-21 (2-2 vs. SAS)
Denver: 20-21 (1-3 vs. OKC)
Orlando: 20-22 (1-3 vs. ATL)
New Orleans: 20-23 (0-4 vs. LAL)
Portland: 19-24 (2-2 vs. DAL)
New York: 19-24 (0-4 vs. BOS)
Atlanta: 17-25 (3-1 vs. ORL)
Philadelphia: 15-27 (0-3 vs. MIA)
Indiana: 13-29 (1-3 vs. CHI)

Hindsight being 20/20, some things jump out from these stats:

Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Oklahoma City, and Miami figured to be the safest bets to advance.
Orlando, Dallas, and San Antonio appeared to be the upper seeds most likely to struggle.
Memphis was definitely much better than a typical 8th seed. I wouldn't be surprised if they were the best 8th seed in NBA history by these measures.

If these results hold up, I'll do the same thing for the conference semifinals, this time before they start.

Final: 2011 NFL Draft Prospects List

2011-04-26T20:56:00.002-04:00

This is the final, ahem, draft for this year's "Top 5" lists. As before, these are ordered by how successful I believe the prospects' careers will be, not by their projected draft order in April. Number in parentheses are the previous ranks from March 19th and February 27th.

Offensive Tackles:

1. (1, 2) Tyron Smith

2. (2, 1) Anthony Castonzo

3. (3, 3) Derek Sherrod

4. (4, 4) Gabe Carimi

5. (-, -) James Carpenter

Offensive Guards/Centers:

1. (1, 1) Mike Pouncey

2. (2, 2) Rodney Hudson

3. (3, 3) Stefen Wisniewski

4. (4, 4) Danny Watkins

5. (5, 5) John Moffitt

Tight Ends:

1. (1, 1) Kyle Rudolph

2. (2, 2) Lance Kendricks

3. (3, 3) Virgil Green

4. (4, 4) D.J. Williams

5. (5, 5) Julius Thomas

Quarterbacks:

1. (1, 1) Andy Dalton

2. (2, 2) Jake Locker

3. (3, 3) Blaine Gabbert

4. (4, 4) Cam Newton

5. (5, -) Colin Kaepernick

Running Backs:

1. (1, 1) Mark Ingram

2. (2, 2) Mikel Leshoure

3. (3, -) Roy Helu

4. (4, 3) Ryan Williams

5. (5, 5) Daniel Thomas

Wide Receivers:

1. (1, 1) A.J. Green

2. (2, 2) Julio Jones

3. (3, 3) Leonard Hankerson

4. (4, 4) Jonathan Baldwin

5. (5, 5) Titus Young

Defensive Ends:

1. (2, 2) Robert Quinn

2. (1, 1) Da'Quan Bowers

3. (3, 3) Ryan Kerrigan

4. (4, -) Aldon Smith

5. (5, 5) J.J. Watt

Defensive/Nose Tackles:

1. (1, 1) Nick Fairley

2. (2, 2) Marcell Dareus

3. (3, 4) Phil Taylor

4. (4, 3) Stephen Paea

5. (5, -) Corey Liuget

Outside Linebackers:

1. (1, 1) Von Miller

2. (2, -) Brooks Reed

3. (3, 2) Akeem Ayers

4. (4, 4) Dontay Moch

5. (5, -) Sam Acho

Inside Linebackers:

1. (1, 3) Casey Matthews

2. (2, 2) Greg Jones

3. (3, 1) Martez Wilson

4. (4, 3) Colin McCarthy

5. (5, 4) Nate Irving

Cornerbacks:

1. (1, 1) Patrick Peterson

2. (2, 2) Prince Amukamara

3. (3, 3) Davon House

4. (4, 4) Rashad Carmichael

5. (-, -) Brandon Burton

Safeties:

1. (1, 1) Rahim Moore

2. (2, 2) Ahmad Black

3. (5, 5) Aaron Williams

4. (3, 4) Mark Legree

5. (4, 5) Tyler Sash

Fearless NBA Predictions: Playoffs, Round 1

2011-04-16T00:59:00.004-04:00

82 games is a marathon. 16 more wins is a sprint.

For your analytical and reading pleasure, here's the one-line script for each playoff team to win the championship this year...roughly in order from least-likely to most-likely:

Indiana: Score 54 points every quarter

Atlanta: Joe Johnson earns max contract

New Orleans: Paul carries entire team on his back

Memphis: Allen, Battier, Gasol play shutdown defense

New York: Big 3-lite "flip the switch"

Philadelphia: Imitate 2004 Pistons; Holiday=Billups, "basketball collective"

Denver: Team depth, altitude wear out opponents

Portland: Wallace puts everyone else in right place

Orlando: Imitate 1994 Rockets; Howard=Olajuwon, rest of team catches fire from 3 point line

Dallas: Chandler changes team's postseason DNA

San Antonio: Big 3 turn back the clock

Boston: The O'Neals restore ubuntu

Miami: Big 3 "flip the switch"

Oklahoma City: Perkins, Ibaka, Mohammed own paint

Chicago: MVP Rose carries entire team on his back

L.A. Lakers: Gasol, Bynum, Odom own paint

Without further ado, the Round 1 predictions, and the best player on the floor...

Eastern Conference:

(1) Chicago over (8) Indiana in 5 (Rose)

(2) Miami over (7) Philadelphia in 5 (James)

(3) Boston over (6) New York in 5 (Rondo)

(4) Orlando over (5) Atlanta in 5 (Howard)

Western Conference:

(1) San Antonio over (8) Memphis in 6 (Duncan)

(2) L.A. Lakers over (7) New Orleans in 5 (Bryant)

(3) Dallas over (6) Portland in 7 (Nowitzki by a shade over Aldridge)

(4) Oklahoma City over (5) Denver in 6 (Durant)

Stocks Of The Month: NLY, ISRG

2011-04-13T20:28:00.006-04:00

I was able to choose two stocks this month, because one that I had owned has some potentially serious issues. The cliffsnotes story on Great Northern Iron (GNI) is that it is a trust which will dissolve in 2015, and the sum of its projected dividend payments and final payout per share, from the present until that time, is significantly less than the current price of the stock. This is openly disclosed in the trust's 10-K filings, and the increasing knowledge of its circumstances has resulted in some recent large losses. I don't feel too terribly bad for owning the stock, as I sold for a slight capital gain and collected a few dividends along the way. But I do have to double-guess myself when I can wonder aloud why it was behaving strangely.

This month's stocks are ones I already own, and wanted to add more...one a dividend stock, and one a growth stock...

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Positives:

Huge profit and operating margins (86% and 88% respectively).

+11% spread between ROE and ROA.

Positive operating cash flow ($11B).

Trailing P/E of 8, forward P/E of 7.

Whopping 14.4% dividend yield.

Negatives:

Huge debt ($67B)...of course, debt is their business.

Low insider holding (0.44%).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Positives:

Super-cool surgical robots.

Solid revenue (21%) and earnings (56%) growth.

No debt.

Positive cash flow.

Negatives:

Low insider ownership (1.2%).

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.71%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 8.58%

Baidu (BIDU) 7.85%

Google (GOOG) 6.39%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 5.62%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.37%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.52%

Apache (APA) 4.26%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.87%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.80%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.44%

Blackstone (BX) 3.33%

Cherokee (CHKE) 3.18%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.18%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.91%

The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 2.85%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.70%

DuPont (DD) 2.64%

Frontline (FRO) 2.60%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.31%

Intel (INTC) 2.26%

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.26%

Nokia (NOK) 1.94%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.84%

Updated: 2011 NFL Draft Prospects List

2011-03-19T22:13:00.003-04:00

With pro days having started to filter in, it's time to revisit my "Top 5" lists. See the original version here. These are ordered by how successful I believe the prospects' careers will be, not by their projected draft order in April. Number in parentheses is previous rank.

Offensive Tackles:
1. (2) Tyron Smith
2. (1) Anthony Castonzo
3. (3) Derek Sherrod
4. (4) Gabe Carimi
5. (5) Nate Solder

Offensive Guards/Centers:
1. (1) Mike Pouncey
2. (2) Rodney Hudson
3. (3) Stefen Wisniewski
4. (4) Danny Watkins
5. (5) John Moffitt

Tight Ends:
1. (1) Kyle Rudolph
2. (2) Lance Kendricks
3. (3) Virgil Green
4. (4) D.J. Williams
5. (5) Julius Thomas

Quarterbacks:

1. (1) Andy Dalton
2. (2) Jake Locker

3. (3) Blaine Gabbert

4. (4) Cam Newton

5. (-) Colin Kaepernick

Running Backs:

1. (1) Mark Ingram

2. (2) Mikel Leshoure

3. (-) Roy Helu

4. (3) Ryan Williams

5. (5) Daniel Thomas

Wide Receivers:

1. (1) A.J. Green

2. (2) Julio Jones

3. (3) Leonard Hankerson

4. (4) Jonathan Baldwin
5. (5) Titus Young

Defensive Ends:

1. (1) Da'Quan Bowers

2. (2) Robert Quinn

3. (3) Ryan Kerrigan

4. (-) Aldon Smith

5. (5) J.J. Watt

Defensive/Nose Tackles:

1. (1) Nick Fairley

2. (2) Marcell Dareus

3. (4) Phil Taylor

4. (3) Stephen Paea

5. (-) Corey Liuget

Outside Linebackers:

1. (1) Von Miller

2. (-) Brooks Reed

3. (2) Akeem Ayers

4. (4) Dontay Moch

5. (-) Sam Acho

Inside Linebackers:

1. (3) Casey Matthews

2. (2) Greg Jones

3. (1) Martez Wilson

4. (3) Colin McCarthy

5. (4) Nate Irving

Cornerbacks:
1. (1) Patrick Peterson
2. (2) Prince Amukamara
3. (3) Davon House

4. (4) Rashad Carmichael

5. (5) Aaron Williams

Safeties:
1. (1) Rahim Moore
2. (2) Ahmad Black

3. (4) Mark Legree

4. (5) Tyler Sash

5. (3) Robert Sands

Sold F and CREE

2011-03-09T22:24:00.005-05:00

In a running experiment of when and how to sell non-dividend stocks, I've sold two in the last two days, via automated processes: Ford (F) and Cree (CREE), due to both having broken long(er)-term chart trendlines. I am not a chartist - I believe in company fundamentals above all - but there is something appealing about setting a selling point and sticking to it, especially for investments that have no value beyond their trading price.

Here are the charts/trends in detail. First, Ford:

This is an ideal chart, lower-left to upper-right. Ford had plenty of room to run above the trend in 2011, but it is now a $50+ billion company by market cap, which seems like a fair evaluation to me. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have taken all the money I could get my hands on in February 2009 and invested it all in Ford. It's one of my best stock picks ever with a return of 653%.

A not-so-great stock pick was Cree:

The third time was the charm for falling through the floor at $48. There was also a clear floor/ceiling at $60, which of course would have been a better exit point when it crashed through in January 2011. Cree returned -28% from where it was bought in June 2010.

The proceeds from these sales will be used to buy more Baidu (BIDU).

Stock Of The Month: NOK

2011-03-03T21:47:00.004-05:00

I've bought low and sold high in this stock once before...trying to repeat history...

Nokia (NOK)

Positives:
Well-funded ~6% dividend yield.
Low 11 forward P/E.
Plus $10 billion(!) cash-minus-debt on balance sheet.
Essentially a (well-compensated) hardware supplier of Microsoft.

Negatives:
Thin margins and returns on assets/equity.
Slow/shrinking growth.
Best hopes of finishing third in a crowded smartphone field.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.29%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.69%
Google (GOOG) 6.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.45%
Baidu (BIDU) 4.35%
Apache (APA) 4.26%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.19%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, F, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 4.10%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.73%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.55%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.51%
Blackstone (BX) 3.28%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.08%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.07%
Frontline (FRO) 3.01%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.91%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.71%
DuPont (DD) 2.63%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.63%
Intel (INTC) 2.44%
BreitBurn (BBEP) 2.35%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.25%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.13%
Nokia (NOK) 1.88%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.55%
Cree (CREE) 1.03%

2011 NFL Draft Prospects List

2011-02-27T00:34:00.010-05:00

After many hours of watching the NFL Combine, I'm channeling my inner-Mike Mayock and creating top 5 lists by position. Like Mayock's lists, these are ordered by how successful I believe the prospects' careers will be, not by their projected draft order in April.

Offensive Tackles:
1. Anthony Castonzo
2. Tyron Smith
3. Derek Sherrod
4. Gabe Carimi
5. Nate Solder

Offensive Guards/Centers:
1. Mike Pouncey
2. Rodney Hudson
3. Stefen Wisniewski
4. Danny Watkins
5. John Moffitt

Tight Ends:
1. Kyle Rudolph
2. Lance Kendricks
3. Virgil Green
4. D.J. Williams
5. Julius Thomas

Quarterbacks:

1. Andy Dalton
2. Jake Locker

3. Blaine Gabbert

4. Cam Newton

5. Ricky Stanzi

Running Backs:

1. Mark Ingram

2. Mikel Leshoure

3. Ryan Williams

4. DeMarco Murray

5. Daniel Thomas

Wide Receivers:

1. A.J. Green

2. Julio Jones

3. Leonard Hankerson

4. Jonathan Baldwin
5. Titus Young

Defensive Ends:

1. Da'Quan Bowers

2. Robert Quinn

3. Ryan Kerrigan

4. Dontay Moch

5. J.J. Watt

Defensive/Nose Tackles:

1. Nick Fairley

2. Marcell Dareus

3. Stephen Paea

4. Phil Taylor

5. Marvin Austin

Outside Linebackers:

1. Von Miller

2. Akeem Ayers

3. Casey Matthews

4. Justin Houston

5. Mason Foster

Inside Linebackers:

1. Martez Wilson

2. Greg Jones

3. Colin McCarthy

4. Nate Irving

5. Quan Sturdivant

Cornerbacks:
1. Patrick Peterson
2. Prince Amukamara
3. Davon House
4. Rashad Carmichael
5. Aaron Williams

Safeties:
1. Rahim Moore
2. Ahmad Black
3. Robert Sands
4. Mark Legree
5. Tyler Sash

Stocks Of The Month: The Distressed 2011

2011-02-09T00:04:00.002-05:00

In preparation for this year's additions, several stocks had to be purged from the portfolio. Borders (BGP), China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), E*Trade (ETFC), and GigaMedia (GIGM) were all underperformers with poor fundamentals - they won't be missed. Also, I took profits in American International Group (AIG) after a pullback/correction.

With MetroPCS (PCS) being the lone survivor of a particularly horrible batch of picks from last year, I seeked higher-quality candidates this time around. No .OB's or .PK's. No eminent bankruptcies. No poisoned balance sheets. Just some solid yet under-appreciated stocks, primed for a bounceback.

Without further ado, I present to you the 2011 edition of "The Distressed":

Electronic Arts (ERTS, -74% from Mar. 2005): game software maker figures to turn around at some point...or get bought out.

ITT Educational Services (ESI, -51% from Feb. 2009): outstanding profitability and margins.

La-Z-Boy (LZB, -74% from Apr. 2002): furniture business in a long slump.

China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NPD, -81% from Nov. 2007): small ($414M market cap), risky but profitable, yields 6.4%.

White River Capital (RVR, -32% from Feb. 2007): smaller ($64M market cap), thinly traded, yields 5.9%. Subprime(!) auto financier.

Skechers (SKX, -48% from Jun. 2010): footwear maker subject to the most fickle of consumers.

STEC (STEC, -45% from Sep. 2009): data storage is a crowded area, but this could be the next SanDisk.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.31%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 10.61%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 7.16%

Google (GOOG) 6.82%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.35%

Baidu (BIDU) 4.34%

The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, F, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 4.18%

Apache (APA) 4.07%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.56%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.54%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.48%

Blackstone (BX) 3.13%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.11%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.00%

Cherokee (CHKE) 2.96%

Frontline (FRO) 2.96%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.71%

Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.68%

DuPont (DD) 2.62%

Intel (INTC) 2.45%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.34%

BreitBurn (BBEP) 2.31%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.26%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.58%

Cree (CREE) 1.07%

My Current Investing Philosophy

2011-02-05T22:38:00.004-05:00

It's been a few years since I've attempted to state my investing philosophy, which has always been a work in progress/moving target/school of hard knocks type of strategy; my portfolio is what it is at any given moment. It's definitely not my intention to do things on the fly, but the market always has new lessons to learn around every corner.

Excuses aside...my intentions are to own stocks that:

are long-term, "buy-and-hold" investments;
represent great underlying companies and/or valuable assets;
have excellence across as many metrics as possible;
are cheap by valuation; and
pay outstanding, stable, well-funded dividends, or
promise extraordinary growth.

Conversely, my intentions are to avoid stocks that:

are short-term, "day trader" investments;
represent minimal value beyond their stock symbol;
have poor metrics by any measure;
are expensive by valuation; and
pay no or low, unstable, or underfunded dividends, or
promise low or no growth.

Seems fairly simple, doesn't it? And yet, I've bought more lousy stocks, and lost more money owning those lousy stocks, than any so-called investor ever should.

February is traditionally my "distressed" month, when I choose a basket of downtrodden stocks in hopes of some of them bouncing back. The ones that do rebound - for example, Ford (F), Blackstone (BX), and Jones Soda (JSDA) - seem obvious in retrospect; the ones that fail seem obvious as well. I think these "distressed" stock results exemplify (in an amplified way) what my investment philosophy should be. Fundamentals always win; fundamentals always matter.

Starting this month, I will attempt to clear the deck of any past failures (as noted before, I do own too many stocks), and use some additional discretion in the stocks I buy and own.

Super Bowl Pick

2011-02-05T15:27:00.002-05:00

Pittsburgh (+3) over Green Bay

Outright: Steelers 35, Packers 31

Last week: 2-0
Playoffs: 7-3
Last week outright: 2-0
Playoffs outright: 7-3

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2011-01-22T18:41:00.002-05:00

Green Bay (-3½) over CHICAGO
PITTSBURGH (-3½) over N.Y. Jets

Outright winners: Green Bay, Pittsburgh

Last week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3
Last week outright: 3-1
Playoffs outright: 5-3

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2011-01-15T15:38:00.003-05:00

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore
Green Bay (+1½) over ATLANTA
CHICAGO (-10) over Seattle
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over N.Y. Jets

Outright winners: Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Chicago, New England

Last week: 2-2
Outright: 2-2

NFL Wild Card Picks

2011-01-08T16:09:00.003-05:00

New Orleans (-10) over SEATTLE
N.Y. Jets (+2½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore (-3) over KANSAS CITY
PHILADELPHIA (-2½) over Green Bay

Outright winners: New Orleans, N.Y. Jets, Baltimore, Philadelphia

Last week: 6-10
Season record: 128-122-6

2010 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

2011-01-02T17:58:00.005-05:00

36 stocks.

That's probably 16 or so more than I'd like to own, from a portfolio management standpoint; it's very difficult to keep track of all of them.

On the other hand, I do like most of these stocks - and they collectively returned 21.6% vs. 15.1% for the S&P 500 - so it will be difficult to prune...but I will have to try.

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2010's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

GigaMedia (GIGM)
Bought: Feb @ $3.05
Year-closing price: $1.48 (-52%)
Inferior Chinese online gaming company.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)
Bought: Feb @ $7.81
Year-closing price: $4.60 (-41%)
Solar stocks didn't bounce back.

Borders (BGP)
Bought: Feb @ $1.25
Year-closing price: $0.90 (-28%)
Should have sold in April ($3.29 high).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Bought: Jul @ $315.50
Year-closing price: $257.75 (-18%)
This stock looks very, very cheap right now.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)
Bought: Feb @ $11.83
Year-closing price: $10.80 (-9%)
Will hold on to, as long as the dividend is funded.

Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $27.32
Year-closing price: $25.37 (-7%)
Again, all about the dividend safety.

Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $619.98
Year-closing price: $593.97 (-4%)
Will Android take over tablets like it did smartphones?

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP)
Bought: Nov @ $20.70
Year-closing price: $20.14 (-3%)
Dividend stock.

Cree (CREE)
Bought: Jun @ $66.60
Year-closing price: $65.89 (-1%)
Up-and-down year.

China Real Estate Information (CRIC)
Bought: Feb @ $9.49
Year-closing price: $9.60 (1%)
Business, fundamentals seem good; might have been early.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Bought: Jan @ $17.31, Jun @ $17.16
Year-closing price: $17.92 (4%)
Another dividend stock.

Cherokee (CHKE)
Year-opening price: $17.82
Bought more: Sep @ $18.30
Year-closing price: $18.81 (6%)
Yet another dividend stock.

E*Trade (ETFC)
Bought: Feb @ $15.10
Year-closing price: $16.00 (6%)
Volatile stock; ended up doing little.

Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $13.12
Year-closing price: $14.15 (8%)
Relatively quiet year after a crazy 2009.

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $14.29
Bought more: Apr @ $14.29
Year-closing price: $15.45 (8%)
My favorite dividend stock.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $6.00
Year-closing price: $6.77 (13%)
Thinly-traded tech stock flies under the radar.

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)
Bought: Mar @ $17.95
Year-closing price: $20.52 (14%)
Sleepy dividend stock.

Vodafone (VOD)
Year-opening price: $23.09
Year-closing price: $26.44 (15%)
Verizon Wireless' better half.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $26.99
Year-closing price: $30.99 (15%)
Back on solid ground after a few rough years.

Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $103.17
Bought more: Sep @ $98.62
Year-closing price: $119.23 (16%)
The best-run oil and gas company out there.

Motorola (MOT)
Year-opening price: $7.76
Year-closing price: $9.07 (17%)
Rescued by Android.

Intel (INTC)
Bought: Aug @ $17.88
Year-closing price: $21.30 (18%)
Remains a very cheap stock.

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $62.44
Year-closing price: $76.76 (23%)
The finest restaraunter in the world.

Ace Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $50.40
Year-closing price: $62.25 (24%)
A good year for reinsurance.

Baidu (BIDU)
Bought: Jun @ $75.93, Oct @ $101.59
Year-closing price: $96.53 (27%)
The Chinese Google shows no signs of slowing down.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
Bought: Mar @ $90.47
Year-closing price: $126.54 (40%)
This is a dividend stock?

Citigroup (C)
Year-opening price: $3.31
Year-closing price: $4.73 (43%)
Still hard to trust this bank.

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $32.91
Year-closing price: $48.74 (48%)
Copper continues its run.

DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $33.67
Year-closing price: $49.88 (48%)
208-year-old company has amazing year.

F5 Networks (FFIV)
Bought: Aug @ $87.70
Year-closing price: $130.16 (48%)
My best growth-stock pick of 2010.

Great Northern Iron (GNI)
Year-opening price: $94.00
Year-closing price: $143.00 (52%)
This is a dividend stock???

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $210.73
Year-closing price: $322.56 (53%)
iPad, iPhone fuel growth for foreseeable future.

Ford (F)
Year-opening price: $10.00
Year-closing price: $16.79 (68%)
The comeback is complete.

American International Group (AIG)
Year-opening price: $29.98
Year-closing price: $57.62 (92%)
Quite possibly, the biggest bailout-beneficiary.

MetroPCS (PCS)
Bought: Feb @ $6.05
Year-closing price: $12.63 (109%)
Second-tier wireless telecom figures to be bought out soon.

Jones Soda (JSDA)
Year-opening price: $0.43
Year-closing price: $1.19 (177%)
Wouldn't bet on a repeat year in 2011.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2011-01-01T21:17:00.001-05:00

KANSAS CITY (-3½) over Oakland

Miami (+5) over NEW ENGLAND

INDIANAPOLIS (-9½) over Tennessee

HOUSTON (-3) over Jacksonville

Pittsburgh (-5½) over CLEVELAND

BALTIMORE (-9½) over Cincinnati

DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota

N.Y. Giants (-3½) over WASHINGTON

GREEN BAY (-9½) over Chicago

Dallas (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

Buffalo (+1) over N.Y. JETS

ATLANTA (-14½) over Carolina

NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Tampa Bay

St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE

Arizona (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO

San Diego (-3½) over DENVER

Last week: 9-7

Season: 122-112-6

2010 Stock Recap: The Departed

2011-01-01T16:04:00.003-05:00

Another year, another yearly stock review post!

I sold 12 stocks in 2010 after selling just 1 in 2009, so "The Departed" makes its return this year. Having a chance to look back, it's striking not just how poor my selling was, but also that most of these stocks simply should have never been bought in the first place.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2010's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

Biovail (BVF)
Year-opening price: $13.96
Sold: Jun @ $16.53 (18%)
Stock-closing price: $26.35 (89%)
Taken out by Valeant Pharmaceuticals. I sold too early.

Ambac (ABKFQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.60
Sold: Aug @ $0.67 (11%)
Year-closing price: $0.11 (-82%)
Far and away, my best sell of the year.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Year-opening price: $98.63
Sold: Feb @ $100.50 (2%)
Year-closing price: $108.11 (10%)
Once-skipped, extremely lumpy dividend sealed its fate.

Tidewater (TDW)
Year-opening price: $47.95
Sold: Sep @ $43.98 (-8%)
Year-closing price: $53.84 (12%)
Boring stock had a nice fall rally.

Tesoro (TSO)
Year-opening price: $13.55
Sold: Feb @ $11.81 (-13%)
Year-closing price: $18.54 (37%)
Suspended dividend = removed from portfolio. Sold very near year's low.

Motors Liquidation (MTLQQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.47
Sold: Aug @ $0.38 (-18%)
Year-closing price: $0.09 (-81%)
Held on to the ghost of GM for far too long.

PDL BioPharma (PDLI)
Year-opening price: $6.86
Sold: Sep @ $5.16 (-25%)
Year-closing price: $6.23 (-9%)
Determined to be an unstable/at-risk dividend.

Palm (PALM)
Year-opening price: $10.21
Sold/Stock-closing price: $5.70 (-44%)
Rescued by Hewlett-Packard. A low-quality "Distressed" pick.

Blockbuster (BLOAQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.39
Sold: Aug @ $0.17 (-56%)
Year-closing price: $0.16 (-59%)
Another low-quality "Distressed" pick. Going to zero.

Jackson Hewitt (JTX)
Year-opening price: $2.47
Sold: Sep @ $0.98 (-60%)
Year-closing price: $2.17 (-12%)
Made a furious "comeback" right after I sold it.

Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB)
Year-opening price: $1.18
Sold: Aug @ $0.37 (-69%)
Year-closing price: $0.30 (-75%)
Another low-quality "Distressed" pick. Going to zero.

YRC Worldwide (YRCW)
Year-opening price: $21.00
Sold: Oct @ $4.14 (-80%)
Year-closing price: $3.72 (-83%)
The hits just keep on coming, don't they?

NFL Week 16 Picks

2010-12-23T18:57:00.002-05:00

PITTSBURGH (-14) over Carolina
Dallas (-6½) over ARIZONA
Detroit (+3) over MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA (-14) over Minnesota
JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Washington
ST. LOUIS (-2) over San Francisco
TAMPA BAY (-6) over Seattle
New England (-8) over BUFFALO
N.Y. Jets (+1) over CHICAGO
Baltimore (-3) over CLEVELAND
KANSAS CITY (-4½) over Tennessee
Indianapolis (-3) over OAKLAND
DENVER (+3) over Houston
N.Y. Giants (+3) over GREEN BAY
San Diego (-7½) over CINCINNATI
ATLANTA (-2) over New Orleans

Last week: 8-8
Season: 113-105-6

NFL Week 15 Picks

2010-12-16T20:14:00.001-05:00

San Francisco (+9½) over SAN DIEGO
Kansas City (+3) over ST. LOUIS
TENNESSEE (-1) over Houston
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Jacksonville
CAROLINA (-2½) over Arizona
Cleveland (+1) over CINCINNATI
MIAMI (-5) over Buffalo
Philadelphia (+3) over N.Y. GIANTS
DALLAS (-7) over Washington
TAMPA BAY (-4½) over Detroit
New Orleans (+2½) over BALTIMORE
Atlanta (-6) over SEATTLE
PITTSBURGH (-5) over N.Y. Jets
OAKLAND (-7½) over Denver
NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Green Bay
Chicago (-7½) over MINNESOTA

Last week: 7-7-2
Season: 105-97-6

NFL Week 14 Picks

2010-12-09T20:32:00.001-05:00

Indianapolis (-3) over TENNESSEE
New England (-3) over CHICAGO
Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO
JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Oakland
Green Bay (-6½) over DETROIT
Atlanta (-7) over CAROLINA
Tampa Bay (-1) over WASHINGTON
PITTSBURGH (-9) over Cincinnati
St. Louis (+9½) over NEW ORLEANS
Seattle (+5) over SAN FRANCISCO
N.Y. JETS (-5½) over Miami
ARIZONA (+4½) over Denver
Kansas City (+9) over SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia (-3) over DALLAS
N.Y. Giants (-3) over MINNESOTA
Baltimore (-3) over HOUSTON

Last week: 9-7
Season: 98-90-4

NFL Week 13 Picks

2010-12-02T20:19:00.001-05:00

PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Houston
MINNESOTA (-5½) over Buffalo
Cleveland (+5½) over MIAMI
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Denver
Washington (+7) over N.Y. GIANTS
Chicago (-4½) over DETROIT
GREEN BAY (-9) over San Francisco
New Orleans (-6½) over CINCINNATI
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta
SAN DIEGO (-12½) over Oakland
SEATTLE (-4½) over Carolina
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over Dallas
St. Louis (-3) over ARIZONA
Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE
NEW ENGLAND (-3) over N.Y. Jets

Last week: 10-6
Season: 89-83-4

NFL Week 12 Picks

2010-11-25T12:16:00.004-05:00

DETROIT (+6½) over New England
New Orleans (-3½) over DALLAS
N.Y. JETS (-9) over Cincinnati
Minnesota (+1) over WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh (-6½) over BUFFALO
HOUSTON (-6) over Tennessee
Jacksonville (+7) over N.Y. GIANTS
Carolina (-9½) over CLEVELAND
Tampa Bay (+8) over BALTIMORE
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Green Bay (+1½) over ATLANTA
Miami (+3) over OAKLAND
Kansas City (-2½) over SEATTLE
St. Louis (+4) over DENVER
INDIANAPOLIS (-2½) over San Diego
San Francisco (-1) over ARIZONA

Last week: 8-8
Season: 79-77-4

NFL Week 11 Picks

2010-11-18T20:22:00.002-05:00

MIAMI (-1½) over Chicago
PITTSBURGH (-7½) over Oakland
N.Y. JETS (-6½) over Houston
Baltimore (-10½) over CAROLINA
TENNESSEE (-7) over Washington
Detroit (+6½) over DALLAS
Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA
Buffalo (+4½) over CINCINNATI
Cleveland (+2) over JACKSONVILLE
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Arizona
NEW ORLEANS (-11½) over Seattle
ST. LOUIS (+3) over Atlanta
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
Indianapolis (+4) over NEW ENGLAND
N.Y. Giants (+3) over PHILADELPHIA
Denver (+9½) over SAN DIEGO

Last week: 7-7
Season: 71-69-4

NFL Week 10 Picks

2010-11-11T20:10:00.003-05:00

Baltimore (+1) over ATLANTA
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Cincinnati
Houston (+1½) over JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee (-1) over MIAMI
Minnesota (-1) over CHICAGO
Detroit (+3) over BUFFALO
N.Y. Jets (-3) over CLEVELAND
TAMPA BAY (-7) over Carolina
Kansas City (-1) over DENVER
St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA (-3) over Seattle
Dallas (+13½) over N.Y. GIANTS
New England (+4½) over PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON

Last week: 8-4-1
Season: 64-62-4

Stock Of The Month: BBEP

2010-11-10T20:30:00.004-05:00

Yet another oil and natural gas L.P. stock has joined the portfolio...

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP)

Positives:

Generous 7.6% dividend yield.

Low payout ratio (34%) and positive free cash flows ensure stability of future dividends.

Negatives:

Low ROA and ROE (3% and 5% respectively).

Additionally, the plug has been pulled on the YRC Worldwide (YRCW) experiment. I can't say I didn't see it coming, either.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.53%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 10.95%

Google (GOOG) 7.19%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.58%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.33%

Baidu (BIDU) 4.23%

Apache (APA) 4.00%

The Distressed (AIG, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, GIGM, JSDA, MOT, PCS, WFC) 3.93%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.77%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.72%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.72%

Cherokee (CHKE) 3.59%

Frontline (FRO) 3.24%

Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.21%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.14%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.81%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.72%

Blackstone (BX) 2.60%

Intel (INTC) 2.50%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.49%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.43%

DuPont (DD) 2.41%

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.29%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.37%

Cree (CREE) 1.16%

NFL Week 9 Picks

2010-11-06T21:47:00.002-04:00

Chicago (-3) over BUFFALO

HOUSTON (+2½) over San Diego

New Orleans (-6½) over CAROLINA

Arizona (+8) over MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay (+8½) over ATLANTA

N.Y. Jets (-4) over DETROIT

BALTIMORE (-5) over Miami

New England (-4) over CLEVELAND

N.Y. Giants (-7) over SEATTLE

Kansas City (+1) over OAKLAND

Indianapolis (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

GREEN BAY (-7½) over Dallas

Pittsburgh (-4½) over CINCINNATI

Last week: 6-7

Season: 56-58-3

NFL Week 8 Picks

2010-10-30T17:44:00.002-04:00

Denver (+1½) over San Francisco

DALLAS (-6½) over Jacksonville

Washington (+2½) over DETROIT

Green Bay (+6) over N.Y. JETS

ST. LOUIS (-3) over Carolina

Miami (+2) over CINCINNATI

KANSAS CITY (-7½) over Buffalo

Tennessee (+3) over SAN DIEGO

Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA

Seattle (+2½) over OAKLAND

NEW ENGLAND (-5) over Minnesota

Pittsburgh (even) over NEW ORLEANS

INDIANAPOLIS (-5½) over Houston

Last week: 9-5

Season: 50-51-3

NFL Week 7 Picks

2010-10-24T02:01:00.002-04:00

Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI

ATLANTA (-3½) over Cincinnati

KANSAS CITY (-9) over Jacksonville

Philadelphia (+3) over TENNESSEE

Washington (+3) over CHICAGO

Cleveland (+13½) over NEW ORLEANS

BALTIMORE (-13) over Buffalo

CAROLINA (+3) over San Francisco

St. Louis (+3) over TAMPA BAY

Arizona (+6) over SEATTLE

New England (+2½) over SAN DIEGO

DENVER (-8½) over Oakland

GREEN BAY (-2½) over Minnesota

N.Y. Giants (+3) over DALLAS

Last week: 7-6-1

Season: 41-46-3

NFL Week 6 Picks

2010-10-17T00:37:00.001-04:00

San Diego (-8½) over ST. LOUIS

HOUSTON (-4½) over Kansas City

Baltimore (+2½) over NEW ENGLAND

New Orleans (-4) over TAMPA BAY

Atlanta (+3) over PHILADELPHIA

Detroit (+10) over N.Y. GIANTS

CHICAGO (-6) over Seattle

GREEN BAY (-3) over Miami

PITTSBURGH (-13½) over Cleveland

N.Y. Jets (-3) over DENVER

SAN FRANCISCO (-6½) over Oakland

MINNESOTA (-1½) over Dallas

Indianapolis (-3) over WASHINGTON

Tennessee (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Last week: 9-5

Season: 34-40-2

Stock Of The Month: BIDU

2010-10-14T20:41:00.004-04:00

Getting rid of Baidu (BIDU) in January 2008 is undoubtedly the worst sale of my investing career. Taking a 192% profit off the table, it is up some additional 250% since. This trade now stands as my personal Exhibit A of how not to manage a winner.

I'll never be able to get the same cost basis, but at least I can try to build the same position as before. After this month I'm just short of halfway back; perhaps the market will put it "on sale" sometime in the future, just for me...

Baidu (BIDU)

Positives:
The Google of China.
High margins (39% profit, 43% operating), ROA (25%), ROE (45%).
No debt.

Negatives:
Very expensive P/E ratio of 102.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.93%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 10.83%
Google (GOOG) 6.79%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.60%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.61%
The Distressed (AIG, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 4.16%
Apache (APA) 4.07%
Baidu (BIDU) 4.05%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.05%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.97%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.89%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.74%
Frontline (FRO) 3.57%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.16%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.96%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.85%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.83%
Blackstone (BX) 2.79%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.63%
DuPont (DD) 2.59%
Intel (INTC) 2.50%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.06%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.48%
Cree (CREE) 1.30%

NFL Week 5 Picks

2010-10-09T20:40:00.002-04:00

BALTIMORE (-7) over Denver

Jacksonville (+1½) over BUFFALO

INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Kansas City

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND

Tampa Bay (+6½) over CINCINNATI

Chicago (+1½) over CAROLINA

Green Bay (-2½) over WASHINGTON

HOUSTON (-3) over N.Y. Giants

New Orleans (-7) over ARIZONA

San Diego (-6) over OAKLAND

Tennessee (+7) over DALLAS

Philadelphia (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO

N.Y. JETS (-4) over Minnesota

Last week: 6-8

Season: 25-35-2

NFL Week 4 Picks

2010-10-03T00:11:00.002-04:00

TENNESSEE (-6½) over Denver

PITTSBURGH (-2½) over Baltimore

Cincinnati (-3) over CLEVELAND

GREEN BAY (-14) over Detroit

Carolina (+13½) over NEW ORLEANS

ATLANTA (-7) over San Francisco

ST. LOUIS (+1) over Seattle

N.Y. Jets (-5) over BUFFALO

Indianapolis (-7) over JACKSONVILLE

Houston (-3) over OAKLAND

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Arizona

PHILADELPHIA (-5½) over Washington

Chicago (+3½) over N.Y. GIANTS

New England (-1) over MIAMI

Last week: 7-9

Season: 19-27-2

Autumn Cleaning

2010-09-30T22:04:00.002-04:00

I recently took the opportunity to lock in some capital losses for a few underperforming (lousy) stocks. Gone are Tidewater (TDW), PDL BioPharma (PDLI), and Jackson Hewitt (JTX). The proceeds were split between two stocks I already own, that I felt deserved larger slices of my portfolio: Apache (APA) is in the Gulf oil & gas sector like Tidewater, but is far superior in its management and execution; and Cherokee (CHKE) is a high-yielding licensor of intellectual property like PDL, but with a more stable cash flow. As for Jackson Hewitt...I have no peer stock currently, and won't seek one in the future.

NFL Week 3 Picks

2010-09-24T20:39:00.001-04:00

N.Y. GIANTS (-3) over Tennessee

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Buffalo

BALTIMORE (-10½) over Cleveland

Pittsburgh (-2½) over TAMPA BAY

Cincinnati (-3) over CAROLINA

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta

KANSAS CITY (+2½) over San Francisco

Detroit (+10½) over MINNESOTA

HOUSTON (-3) over Dallas

Washington (-3½) over ST. LOUIS

Philadelphia (-3) over JACKSONVILLE

Indianapolis (-5½) over DENVER

San Diego (-5½) over SEATTLE

Oakland (+4) over ARIZONA

N.Y. Jets (+2) over MIAMI

Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO

Last week: 7-9

Season: 12-18-2

NFL Week 2 Picks

2010-09-18T22:28:00.002-04:00

CLEVELAND (-2½) over Kansas City

GREEN BAY (-12½) over Buffalo

Baltimore (-2½) over CINCINNATI

Pittsburgh (+5) over TENNESSEE

Philadelphia (-6½) over DETROIT

DALLAS (-7) over Chicago

Tampa Bay (+3) over CAROLINA

ATLANTA (-6½) over Arizona

MINNESOTA (-5½) over Miami

OAKLAND (-3½) over St. Louis

DENVER (-3) over Seattle

Houston (-2½) over WASHINGTON

Jacksonville (+7) over SAN DIEGO

New England (-3) over N.Y. JETS

INDIANAPOLIS (-5) over N.Y. Giants

New Orleans (-5½) over SAN FRANCISCO

Last week: 5-9-2

NFL Week 1 Picks

2010-09-09T19:56:00.003-04:00

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over Minnesota
Carolina (+6) over N.Y. GIANTS
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
Atlanta (-1½) over PITTSBURGH
Detroit (+6½) over CHICAGO
Cincinnati (+4½) over NEW ENGLAND
Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY
Denver (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis (-2) over HOUSTON
Oakland (+6) over TENNESSEE
Green Bay (-3) over PHILADELPHIA
San Francisco (-3) over SEATTLE
Arizona (-3½) over ST. LOUIS
Dallas (-3½) over WASHINGTON
Baltimore (+2) over N.Y. JETS
San Diego (-4½) over KANSAS CITY

Stock Of The Month: INTC

2010-09-01T20:58:00.003-04:00

This month's stock is one of the most undervalued I've seen in quite a while...some would say it's cheap for a reason.

Intel (INTC)

Positives:

Massive positive free cash flows ($8.6B per year).

$18B cash, just $2B debt.

P/E of just 11, and an outstanding PEG (forecast) of 0.74.

Healthy 3.5% dividend yield.

Negatives:

Lots of recent acquisitions to integrate (Texas Instruments' cable modem business, Infineon's wireless chip segment, and most controversially, the entirety of McAfee and their security software(!)).

"Slowing" of PC sales.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.52%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.66%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.77%

Google (GOOG) 6.74%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.91%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.63%

The Distressed (AIG, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 4.41%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.15%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 4.09%

Frontline (FRO) 4.02%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.15%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.11%

Vodafone (VOD) 3.00%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.96%

Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.92%

Intel (INTC) 2.73%

DuPont (DD) 2.72%

Blackstone (BX) 2.51%

Tidewater (TDW) 2.41%

Apache (APA) 2.32%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.28%

Cherokee (CHKE) 2.04%

Baidu (BIDU) 1.88%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.72%

PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 1.71%

Cree (CREE) 1.50%

The 613 Greatest Albums Of All Time (a.k.a. My CD Collection)

2010-08-22T13:54:00.006-04:00

This is a list of every album I own, ranked best to worst; the non-ranked albums at the bottom are compilations, greatest hits, box sets, singles, or classical.

Enjoy.

1. Nirvana - In Utero (1993)
2. Smashing Pumpkins - Mellon Collie And The Infinite Sadness (1995)
3. Pantera - Far Beyond Driven (1994)
4. Beach Boys - Pet Sounds (1966)
5. Dylan, Bob - Blonde On Blonde (1966)
6. Led Zeppelin - IV (1971)
7. Beatles - Revolver (1966)
8. Beatles - Rubber Soul (1965)
9. Hendrix, Jimi - Electric Ladyland (1968)
10. Pearl Jam - Vitalogy (1994)
11. Dylan, Bob - Highway 61 Revisited (1965)
12. Soundgarden - Superunknown (1994)
13. Jackson, Michael - Thriller (1982)
14. Radiohead - The Bends (1995)
15. Rolling Stones - Exile On Main St. (1972)
16. U2 - Achtung Baby (1991)
17. Smashing Pumpkins - Siamese Dream (1993)
18. R.E.M. - Automatic For The People (1992)
19. Jackson, Michael - Off The Wall (1979)
20. Love - Forever Changes (1967)
21. Nirvana - Nevermind (1991)
22. Nine Inch Nails - The Downward Spiral (1994)
23. Outkast - Speakerboxxx / The Love Below (2003)
24. Led Zeppelin - Houses Of The Holy (1973)
25. Deftones - White Pony (2000)
26. Led Zeppelin - III (1970)
27. Beatles - The White Album (1968)
28. Public Enemy - It Takes A Nation Of Millions To Hold Us Back (1988)
29. Buckley, Jeff - Grace (1994)
30. Pink Floyd - Dark Side Of The Moon (1973)
31. Zombies - Odessey And Oracle (1968)
32. Who - The Who Sell Out (1967)
33. Gabriel, Peter - So (1986)
34. Bowie, David - The Rise And Fall Of Ziggy Stardust And The Spiders From Mars (1972)
35. Springsteen, Bruce - The River (1980)
36. Radiohead - OK Computer (1997)
37. Metallica - ...And Justice For All (1988)
38. Hole - Live Through This (1994)
39. Hendrix, Jimi - Axis: Bold As Love (1967)
40. Guns N' Roses - Use Your Illusion I/II (1991)
41. Led Zeppelin - Physical Graffiti (1975)
42. Smith, Elliott - XO (1998)
43. Rolling Stones - Let It Bleed (1969)
44. Sonic Youth - Dirty (1992)
45. White Stripes - Elephant (2003)
46. Sex Pistols - Nevermind The Bollocks, Here's The Sex Pistols (1977)
47. Faith No More - Angel Dust (1992)
48. De La Soul - De La Soul Is Dead (1991)
49. Outkast - Stankonia (2000)
50. Wilson, Brian - Smile (2004)
51. Rolling Stones - Beggars Banquet (1968)
52. Costello, Elvis - This Years Model (1978)
53. Hendrix, Jimi - Are You Experienced? (1967)
54. Lennon, John - Plastic Ono Band (1970)
55. Bowie, David - The Man Who Sold The World (1970)
56. Prince - Dirty Mind (1980)
57. Cash, Johnny - At Folsom Prison (1968)
58. Rolling Stones - Between The Buttons (UK) (1967)
59. Pavement - Slanted And Enchanted (1992)
60. Eels - Electro-Shock Blues (1998)
61. Springsteen, Bruce - Darkness On The Edge Of Town (1978)
62. Beck - Odelay (1996)
63. Wonder, Stevie - Songs In The Key Of Life (1976)
64. Nirvana - Bleach (1989)
65. Pearl Jam - No Code (1996)
66. Beach Boys - Today! / Summer Days (And Summer Nights!!) (1965)
67. Depeche Mode - Violator (1990)
68. Portishead - Dummy (1994)
69. Dr. Dre - The Chronic (1992)
70. R.E.M. - New Adventures In Hi-Fi (1996)
71. Smashing Pumpkins - Adore (1998)
72. Rage Against The Machine - Evil Empire (1996)
73. U2 - The Joshua Tree (1987)
74. Swervedriver - Mezcal Head (1993)
75. Costello, Elvis - Armed Forces (1979)
76. Jay-Z - The Blueprint (2001)
77. System Of A Down - Toxicity (2001)
78. West, Kanye - The College Dropout (2004)
79. Beastie Boys - Paul's Boutique (1989)
80. Beatles - Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band (1967)
81. Metallica - Master Of Puppets (1986)
82. Radiohead - Kid A (2000)
83. Guns N' Roses - Appetite For Destruction (1987)
84. Eminem - The Marshall Mathers LP (2000)
85. N.W.A. - Straight Outta Compton (1988)
86. Costello, Elvis - My Aim Is True (1977)
87. Lennon, John - Imagine (1971)
88. Smith, Elliott - Either/Or (1997)
89. Stone Temple Pilots - Tiny Music...Songs From The Vatican Gift Shop (1996)
90. Rolling Stones - Sticky Fingers (1971)
91. Alice In Chains - Dirt (1992)
92. Who - Who's Next (1971)
93. Korn - Korn (1994)
94. White Stripes - Get Behind Me Satan (2005)
95. Weezer - Weezer (1994)
96. Foo Fighters - Foo Fighters (1995)
97. Springsteen, Bruce - Born In The U.S.A. (1984)
98. Sonic Youth - Daydream Nation (1988)
99. Phair, Liz - Exile In Guyville (1993)
100. Rolling Stones - Aftermath (UK) (1966)
101. Television - Marquee Moon (1977)
102. White Stripes - De Stijl (2000)
103. Smith, Elliott - Roman Candle (1994)
104. Sonic Youth - A Thousand Leaves (1998)
105. Smith, Elliott - Elliott Smith (1995)
106. Pantera - Vulgar Display Of Power (1992)
107. Flaming Lips - The Soft Bulletin (1999)
108. Clash - London Calling (1979)
109. Mann, Aimee - Bachelor No. 2 (1999)
110. Dylan, Bob - Blood On The Tracks (1975)
111. Velvet Underground - The Velvet Underground & Nico (1967)
112. Cars - The Cars (1978)
113. Love And Rockets - Earth, Sun, Moon (1987)
114. 2pac - All Eyez On Me (1996)
115. Beach Boys - Little Deuce Coupe / All Summer Long (1964)
116. Beach Boys - Surfer Girl / Shut Down Volume 2 (1963)
117. Beach Boys - Surfin' Safari / Surfin' U.S.A. (1962)
118. Captain Beefheart & His Magic Band - Trout Mask Replica (1970)
119. Jay-Z - Reasonable Doubt (1996)
120. Husker Du - Zen Arcade (1984)
121. Sonic Youth - Sister (1987)
122. Roxy Music - Country Life (1974)
123. Wonder, Stevie - Innervisions (1973)
124. Bowie, David - Hunky Dory (1971)
125. Cure - Disintegration (1989)
126. Harvey, PJ - To Bring You My Love (1995)
127. Notorious B.I.G. - Ready To Die (1994)
128. Red Hot Chili Peppers - By The Way (2002)
129. Cure - Faith (1981)
130. Dylan, Bob - Love And Theft (2001)
131. Husker Du - New Day Rising (1985)
132. Weezer - Pinkerton (1996)
133. Wilco - Yankee Hotel Foxtrot (2002)
134. Rage Against The Machine - The Battle Of Los Angeles (1999)
135. Megadeth - Rust In Peace (1990)
136. Sonic Youth - Washing Machine (1995)
137. Led Zeppelin - Presence (1976)
138. Oasis - (What's The Story) Morning Glory? (1995)
139. De La Soul - 3 Feet High And Rising (1989)
140. Stone Temple Pilots - Purple (1994)
141. Pink Floyd - Wish You Were Here (1975)
142. Led Zeppelin - II (1969)
143. My Bloody Valentine - Loveless (1991)
144. West, Kanye - Late Registration (2005)
145. Flaming Lips - Yoshimi Battles The Pink Robots (2002)
146. Wonder, Stevie - Talking Book (1972)
147. Led Zeppelin - I (1969)
148. Nirvana - MTV Unplugged In New York (1994)
149. Smith, Elliott - Figure 8 (2000)
150. Springsteen, Bruce - Born To Run (1975)
151. Husker Du - Candy Apple Grey (1986)
152. Catherine Wheel - Chrome (1993)
153. Who - Quadrophenia (1973)
154. Wonder, Stevie - Music Of My Mind (1972)
155. Cure - Pornography (1982)
156. Metallica - Kill 'Em All (1983)
157. Jay-Z - Vol. 3...Life And Times Of S. Carter (1999)
158. Simon, Paul - There Goes Rhymin' Simon (1973)
159. Public Enemy - Fear Of A Black Planet (1990)
160. Springsteen, Bruce - Nebraska (1982)
161. Buckley, Jeff - Sketches For My Sweetheart The Drunk (1998)
162. Jane's Addiction - Nothing's Shocking (1988)
163. Team Sleep - Team Sleep (2005)
164. Jane's Addiction - Ritual De Lo Hibitual (1990)
165. Snoop Doggy Dogg - Doggystyle (1993)
166. Oasis - Definitely Maybe (1994)
167. Drake, Nick - Pink Moon (1972)
168. Limp Bizkit - Significant Other (1999)
169. Morissette, Alanis - Jagged Little Pill (1995)
170. Beck - Mellow Gold (1994)
171. Smashing Pumpkins - Gish (1991)
172. Nine Inch Nails - The Fragile (1999)
173. Anthrax - Sound Of White Noise (1993)
174. Tool - Lateralus (2001)
175. Pavement - Crooked Rain, Crooked Rain (1994)
176. Black Sabbath - Paranoid (1970)
177. Hum - You'd Prefer An Astronaut (1995)
178. Deftones - Around The Fur (1997)
179. Beastie Boys - Licensed To Ill (1986)
180. Morphine - The Night (2000)
181. Beatles - Abbey Road (1969)
182. Smashing Pumpkins - Pisces Iscariot (1994)
183. Hole - Celebrity Skin (1998)
184. Queens Of The Stone Age - Era Vulgaris (2007)
185. Gabriel, Peter - Passion (1989)
186. Beck - Sea Change (2002)
187. Beatles - Magical Mystery Tour (1967)
188. Limp Bizkit - Three Dollar Bill, Y'all (1997)
189. Mann, Aimee - The Forgotten Arm (2005)
190. My Bloody Valentine - Isn't Anything (1988)
191. Sonic Youth - Sonic Nurse (2004)
192. Pearl Jam - Binaural (2000)
193. Jay-Z - The Black Album (2003)
194. Afghan Whigs - Gentlemen (1993)
195. Bjork - Post (1995)
196. Garbage - Garbage (1995)
197. White Stripes - The White Stripes (1999)
198. Harvey, PJ - Stories From The City, Stories From The Sea (2000)
199. Beatles - A Hard Day's Night (1964)
200. Rolling Stones - Some Girls (1978)
201. Cars - Candy-O (1979)
202. Tool - Undertow (1992)
203. Apple, Fiona - Tidal (1996)
204. R.E.M. - Out Of Time (1991)
205. Pink Floyd - The Wall (1979)
206. No Doubt - Return Of Saturn (2000)
207. Beck - Mutations (1998)
208. Outkast - Aquemini (1998)
209. Grateful Dead - American Beauty (1970)
210. King, Carole - Tapestry (1971)
211. Drake, Nick - Five Leaves Left (1969)
212. Lynn, Loretta - Van Lear Rose (2004)
213. Outkast - Atliens (1996)
214. Soundgarden - Badmotorfinger (1991)
215. Hill, Lauryn - MTV Unplugged 2.0 (2002)
216. Queens Of The Stone Age - Lullabies To Paralyze (2005)
217. Pearl Jam - Riot Act (2002)
218. Hum - Downward Is Heavenward (1998)
219. Beastie Boys - Ill Communication (1994)
220. Eels - Blinking Lights And Other Revelations (2005)
221. Green Day - American Idiot (2004)
222. Metallica - Ride The Lightning (1984)
223. Limp Bizkit - The Unquestionable Truth (Part 1) (2005)
224. Pantera - The Great Southern Trendkill (1996)
225. Soundgarden - Down On The Upside (1996)
226. Local H - Pack Up The Cats (1998)
227. Tool - Aenima (1996)
228. Pearl Jam - Yield (1998)
229. Beck - Midnite Vultures (1999)
230. Bjork - Debut (1993)
231. Deftones - Adrenaline (1995)
232. Cohen, Leonard - Songs Of Leonard Cohen (1967)
233. Amos, Tori - Little Earthquakes (1991)
234. Dream Syndicate - The Days Of Wine And Roses (1982)
235. Sunny Day Real Estate - Diary (1994)
236. Guns N' Roses - Chinese Democracy (2008)
237. Fugees - The Score (1996)
238. Dylan, Bob - Time Out Of Mind (1997)
239. Deftones - Diamond Eyes (2010)
240. Beatles - Help! (1965)
241. Breeders - Pod (1990)
242. Mazzy Star - So Tonight That I Might See (1993)
243. Tears For Fears - Songs From The Big Chair (1985)
244. Arcade Fire - Neon Bible (2007)
245. Mann, Aimee - Lost In Space (2002)
246. Radiohead - In Rainbows (2007)
247. Big Boi - Sir Lucious Left Foot...The Son Of Chico Dusty (2010)
248. Cure - The Cure (2004)
249. Beck - One Foot In The Grave (1994)
250. Catherine Wheel - Ferment (1992)
251. Apple, Fiona - Extraordinary Machine (2005)
252. Keys, Alicia - The Diary Of Alicia Keys (2003)
253. Guided By Voices - Alien Lanes (1995)
254. Rentals - Return Of The Rentals (1995)
255. Blink-182 - Blink-182 (2003)
256. Pixies - Surfer Rosa (1988)
257. Aaliyah - Aaliyah (2001)
258. Strokes - Is This It (2001)
259. Rage Against The Machine - Rage Against The Machine (1992)
260. Stone Temple Pilots - No. 4 (1999)
261. Faith No More - The Real Thing (1989)
262. Offspring - Smash (1994)
263. Alice In Chains - Sap (1992)
264. Beatles - Please Please Me (1963)
265. Beatles - With The Beatles (1963)
266. Rancid - …And Out Come The Wolves (1995)
267. Urge Overkill - Saturation (1993)
268. Hole - Pretty On The Inside (1991)
269. Rancid - Let's Go (1994)
270. Blink-182 - Enema Of The State (1999)
271. Def Leppard - Hysteria (1987)
272. Amos, Tori - From The Choirgirl Hotel (1998)
273. Queens Of The Stone Age - Songs For The Deaf (2002)
274. Deftones - B-Sides & Rarities (2005)
275. Pearl Jam - Vs. (1993)
276. Swervedriver - Raise (1991)
277. Foo Fighters - There Is Nothing Left To Lose (1999)
278. Flaming Lips - Transmissions From The Satellite Heart (1993)
279. Ocasek, Ric - Troublizing (1997)
280. Sonic Youth - Murray Street (2002)
281. Harvey, PJ - Rid Of Me (1993)
282. Rentals - Seven More Minutes (1999)
283. Nirvana - Incesticide (1992)
284. Led Zeppelin - Coda (1982)
285. Black Crowes - The Southern Harmony And Musical Companion (1992)
286. Guided By Voices - Bee Thousand (1994)
287. Sugar - Copper Blue (1992)
288. Queens Of The Stone Age - Queens Of The Stone Age (1998)
289. Red Hot Chili Peppers - Californication (1999)
290. Keys, Alicia - As I Am (2007)
291. Marilyn Manson - Mechanical Animals (1998)
292. Blur - The Great Escape (1995)
293. Helium - The Magic City (1997)
294. Ministry - Psalm 69 (1992)
295. Sonic Youth - Evol (1986)
296. Flaming Lips - Clouds Taste Metallic (1995)
297. Replacements - Let It Be (1984)
298. Plant, Robert | Krauss, Alison - Raising Sand (2007)
299. Bjork - Homogenic (1997)
300. Amos, Tori - To Venus And Back (1999)
301. Beatles - Beatles For Sale (1964)
302. Hendrix, Jimi - First Rays Of The New Rising Sun (1997)
303. Jay-Z - Vol. 2...Hard Knock Life (1998)
304. Slayer - Divine Intervention (1994)
305. Sugar - File Under: Easy Listening (1994)
306. Public Enemy - Apocalypse 91...The Enemy Strikes Black (1991)
307. De La Soul - Buhloone Mindstate (1993)
308. Apple, Fiona - When The Pawn... (1999)
309. Prince - 1999 (1982)
310. Ride - Nowhere (1990)
311. Cat Power - The Greatest (2006)
312. TLC - Crazysexycool (1994)
313. Replacements - Tim (1985)
314. Metallica - Death Magnetic (2008)
315. DMX - It's Dark And Hell Is Hot (1998)
316. Urge Overkill - Exit The Dragon (1995)
317. Megadeth - Peace Sells...But Who's Buying? (1986)
318. Sonic Youth - The Eternal (2009)
319. Rolling Stones - Flowers (1967)
320. Helium - The Dirt Of Luck (1995)
321. Portishead - Portishead (1997)
322. Oasis - The Masterplan (1998)
323. Cash, Johnny - American Recordings (1994)
324. Blur - Blur (1997)
325. Jay-Z - American Gangster (2007)
326. Hum - Electra 2000 (1993)
327. Mellencamp, John - The Lonesome Jubilee (1987)
328. Red Hot Chili Peppers - Blood Sugar Sex Magik (1991)
329. Stone Temple Pilots - Core (1992)
330. Beatles - Let It Be (1970)
331. Def Leppard - Pyromania (1983)
332. System Of A Down - Mezmerize (2005)
333. Morphine - Yes (1995)
334. Red Hot Chili Peppers - Stadium Arcadium (2006)
335. Placebo - Black Market Music (2001)
336. Hill, Lauryn - The Miseducation Of Lauryn Hill (1998)
337. Sonic Youth - Rather Ripped (2006)
338. System Of A Down - Hypnotize (2005)
339. Zwan - Mary Star Of The Sea (2003)
340. White Stripes - White Blood Cells (2001)
341. Pink - Try This (2003)
342. Catherine Wheel - Like Cats And Dogs (1996)
343. Pink - M!ssundaztood (2001)
344. Pearl Jam - Ten (1991)
345. Black Flag - Damaged (1981)
346. Amos, Tori - Under The Pink (1994)
347. Jackson, Michael - Bad (1987)
348. Tool - 10,000 Days (2006)
349. AC/DC - Highway To Hell (1979)
350. Hendrix, Jimi - South Saturn Delta (1997)
351. Bon Jovi - Slippery When Wet (1986)
352. Pearl Jam - Lost Dogs (2003)
353. Ben Folds Five - Whatever And Ever Amen (1997)
354. Gorillaz - Demon Days (2005)
355. Helmet - Meantime (1992)
356. Wonder, Stevie - Fulfillingness' First Finale (1974)
357. Slint - Spiderland (1991)
358. Beach Boys - Sunflower / Surf's Up (1971)
359. Deftones - Deftones (2003)
360. Gorillaz - Gorillaz (2001)
361. Limp Bizkit - Chocolate Starfish And The Hot Dog Flavored Water (2000)
362. Young, Neil - Mirror Ball (1995)
363. Soundgarden - Louder Than Love (1989)
364. Alice In Chains - Alice In Chains (1995)
365. Gnarls Barkley - St. Elsewhere (2006)
366. Catherine Wheel - Adam And Eve (1997)
367. Dylan, Bob - Modern Times (2006)
368. Breeders - Last Splash (1993)
369. Pink - I'm Not Dead (2006)
370. Deftones - Saturday Night Wrist (2006)
371. Local H - As Good As Dead (1996)
372. Everclear - Sparkle And Fade (1995)
373. Nine Inch Nails - Pretty Hate Machine (1989)
374. N.E.R.D - In Search Of... (2002)
375. Smith, Elliott - From A Basement On The Hill (2004)
376. Metallica - St. Anger (2003)
377. Guided By Voices - Isolation Drills (2001)
378. Anthrax - Stomp 442 (1995)
379. Afghan Whigs - Black Love (1996)
380. Oasis - Be Here Now (1997)
381. Foo Fighters - The Colour And The Shape (1997)
382. Gorillaz - Plastic Beach (2010)
383. Beck - The Information (2006)
384. Soundgarden - Ultramega OK (1988)
385. Nine Inch Nails - With Teeth (2005)
386. Bush - Sixteen Stone (1994)
387. Anthrax - The Greater Of Two Evils (2004)
388. Everclear - World Of Noise (1993)
389. Audioslave - Out Of Exile (2005)
390. Local H - Whatever Happened To P.J. Soles? (2004)
391. Black Crowes - Amorica (1994)
392. Placebo - Placebo (1996)
393. Korn - Follow The Leader (1998)
394. System Of A Down - Steal This Album! (2002)
395. Chevelle - Point #1 (1999)
396. Smashing Pumpkins - Machina II/Friends And Enemies Of Modern Music (2000)
397. Yorke, Thom - The Eraser (2006)
398. Elastica - Elastica (1995)
399. Screaming Trees - Dust (1996)
400. Pixies - Doolittle (1989)
401. Police - Synchronicity (1983)
402. Cornell, Chris - Euphoria Morning (1999)
403. Alice In Chains - Jar Of Flies (1994)
404. Sepultura - Roots (1996)
405. Audioslave - Audioslave (2002)
406. System Of A Down - System Of A Down (1998)
407. L7 - The Beauty Process: Triple Platinum (1997)
408. Smashing Pumpkins - Machina/The Machines Of God (2000)
409. Pantera - Cowboys From Hell (1990)
410. Radiohead - Amnesiac (2001)
411. Radiohead - Hail To The Thief (2003)
412. White Zombie - Astro-Creep: 2000 (1995)
413. Garbage - Bleed Like Me (2005)
414. Placebo - Without You I'm Nothing (1998)
415. Amos, Tori - Boys For Pele (1996)
416. Korn - Life Is Peachy (1996)
417. Petty, Tom - Wildflowers (1994)
418. DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince - He's The DJ, I'm The Rapper (1988)
419. Ben Folds Five - The Unauthorized Biography Of Reinhold Messner (1999)
420. Darkness - Permission To Land (2003)
421. Weiland, Scott - 12 Bar Blues (1998)
422. Blur - Parklife (1994)
423. R.E.M. - Green (1988)
424. Anthrax - We've Come For You All (2003)
425. Sonic Youth - Goo (1990)
426. Kasabian - Kasabian (2004)
427. Megadeth - Countdown To Extinction (1992)
428. L.L. Cool J - Mama Said Knock You Out (1990)
429. Beastie Boys - Check Your Head (1992)
430. Sepultura - Chaos A. D. (1993)
431. DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince - Rock The House (1988)
432. Garbage - Version 2. 0 (1998)
433. Ludacris - Word Of Mouf (2001)
434. Led Zeppelin - In Through The Out Door (1979)
435. Amon Amarth - With Oden On Our Side (2006)
436. Coldplay - A Rush Of Blood To The Head (2002)
437. Metallica - Metallica (1991)
438. Killers - Hot Fuss (2004)
439. Radiohead - Airbag/How Am I Driving? (1998)
440. A Perfect Circle - Mer De Noms (2000)
441. Van Halen - Van Halen (1978)
442. Black Sabbath - Master Of Reality (1971)
443. Bush - Razorblade Suitcase (1996)
444. Days Of The New - Days Of The New (1997)
445. Kid Rock - Devil Without A Cause (1998)
446. Linkin Park - Hybrid Theory (2000)
447. Live - Throwing Copper (1994)
448. Hatfield, Juliana - Only Everything (1995)
449. Nine Black Alps - Everything Is (2006)
450. Sponge - Wax Ecstatic (1996)
451. Megadeth - So Far, So Good...So What! (1988)
452. Red Hot Chili Peppers - One Hot Minute (1995)
453. Veruca Salt - American Thighs (1994)
454. Jackson, Michael - Dangerous (1991)
455. Hole - My Body, The Hand Grenade (1997)
456. My Chemical Romance - Three Cheers For Sweet Revenge (2004)
457. Jackson, Michael - Invincible (2001)
458. White Zombie - La Sexorcisto: Devil Music Vol. 1 (1992)
459. D Generation - No Lunch (1996)
460. Dandelion - I Think I'm Gonna Be Sick (1993)
461. Anthrax - Volume 8: The Threat Is Real (1998)
462. Beck - Guero (2005)
463. Beastie Boys - Hello Nasty (1998)
464. Garbage - Beautifulgarbage (2001)
465. Nine Inch Nails - Broken (1992)
466. Branch, Michelle - The Spirit Room (2001)
467. Down - Down II - A Bustle In Your Hedgerow... (2002)
468. Cranberries - Everybody Else Is Doing It, So Why Can't We? (1993)
469. Linkin Park - Meteora (2003)
470. Kyuss - Welcome To Sky Valley (1994)
471. Van Halen - Van Halen II (1979)
472. Screaming Trees - Uncle Anesthesia (1991)
473. Placebo - Sleeping With Ghosts (2003)
474. Fountains Of Wayne - Fountains Of Wayne (1996)
475. 10,000 Maniacs - Our Time In Eden (1992)
476. Mann, Aimee - Whatever (1993)
477. Aerosmith - Toys In The Attic (1975)
478. R.E.M. - Fables Of The Reconstruction (1985)
479. 7 Year Bitch - Viva Zapata! (1993)
480. Raconteurs - Broken Boy Soldiers (2006)
481. Drive-By Truckers - Decoration Day (2003)
482. Live - Secret Samadhi (1997)
483. Jay-Z - The Dynasty Roc La Familia (2000)
484. Sonic Youth - Confusion Is Sex/Kill Yr. Idols (1983)
485. Portishead - Third (2008)
486. INXS - Kick (1987)
487. Toadies - Rubberneck (1994)
488. Cinderella - Night Songs (1986)
489. Placebo - Meds (2006)
490. Black, Frank - Frank Black (1993)
491. Brickell, Edie - Ghost Of A Dog (1990)
492. Ice Cube - Amerikkka's Most Wanted (1990)
493. Metallica - Garage Inc. (1998)
494. Def Leppard - High 'N' Dry (1981)
495. Stabbing Westward - Darkest Days (1998)
496. Counting Crows - August And Everything After (1993)
497. Poison - Look What The Cat Dragged In (1986)
498. L7 - Hungry For Stink (1994)
499. Hatfield, Juliana - Become What You Are (1993)
500. Mann, Aimee - I'm With Stupid (1995)
501. Queens Of The Stone Age - Rated R (2000)
502. Sugarcubes - Stick Around For Joy (1992)
503. Blind Melon - Blind Melon (1992)
504. U2 - How To Dismantle An Atomic Bomb (2004)
505. Poison - Open Up And Say...Ahh! (1988)
506. Silversun Pickups - Carnavas (2006)
507. Walkmen - The Walkmen (2001)
508. Lil Jon & The East Side Boyz - Kings Of Crunk (2002)
509. Jones, Norah - Feels Like Home (2004)
510. Beck - Modern Guilt (2008)
511. Springsteen, Bruce - Tunnel Of Love (1987)
512. Van Halen - 1984 (1984)
513. Blink-182 - Cheshire Cat (1994)
514. Presidents Of The United States Of America - The Presidents Of The United States Of America (1995)
515. Sonic Youth - Bad Moon Rising (1985)
516. Audioslave - Revelations (2006)
517. Jane's Addiction - Strays (2003)
518. Stone Temple Pilots - Stone Temple Pilots (2010)
519. 7 Year Bitch - Gato Negro (1996)
520. That Dog - Retreat From The Sun (1997)
521. Madonna - Bedtime Stories (1994)
522. Black, Frank - Teenager Of The Year (1994)
523. Mad Season - Mad Season (1995)
524. Smashing Pumpkins - American Gothic (2008)
525. Temple Of The Dog - Temple Of The Dog (1991)
526. Guns N' Roses - G N' R Lies (1988)
527. Verve - Urban Hymns (1997)
528. Springsteen, Bruce - We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions - American Land Edition (2006)
529. Nine Black Alps - Nine Black Alps (2005)
530. Keys, Alicia - Songs In A Minor (2001)
531. RZA - RZA As Bobby Digital In Stereo (1998)
532. Nada Surf - High/Low (1996)
533. Helmet - Betty (1994)
534. Bubba Sparxxx - Deliverance (2003)
535. Kravitz, Lenny - Are You Gonna Go My Way (1993)
536. Wreckers - Stand Still, Look Pretty (2006)
537. Smashing Pumpkins - Zeitgeist (2007)
538. Radiohead - Pablo Honey (1993)
539. Rage Against The Machine - Renegades (2000)
540. Sepultura - Arise (1991)
541. Adams, Bryan - Reckless (1984)
542. Nine Inch Nails - Year Zero (2007)
543. Rasputina - Thanks For The Ether (1996)
544. Cranberries - No Need To Argue (1994)
545. Alice In Chains - Facelift (1990)
546. Silverchair - Freak Show (1997)
547. Brickell, Edie - Shooting Rubberbands At The Stars (1988)
548. West, Kanye - Graduation (2007)
549. A Perfect Circle - Thirteenth Step (2003)
550. Bush - Golden State (2001)
551. Guns N' Roses - "The Spaghetti Incident?" (1993)
552. Jones, Norah - Come Away With Me (2002)
553. Morissette, Alanis - Supposed Former Infatuation Junkie (1998)
554. White Stripes - Icky Thump (2007)
555. Jewel - 0304 (2003)
556. Bloc Party - Silent Alarm (2005)
557. Harper, Ben - Fight For Your Mind (1995)
558. Sweet, Matthew - Girlfriend (1992)
559. Fountains Of Wayne - Utopia Parkway (1999)
560. Nine Inch Nails - The Slip (2008)
561. Clap Your Hands Say Yeah - Clap Your Hands Say Yeah (2005)
562. Aguilera, Christina - Back To Basics (2006)
563. Sponge - Rotting Pinata (1994)
564. Corgan, Billy - The Future Embrace (2005)
565. Franz Ferdinand - Franz Ferdinand (2004)
566. Rollins Band - Weight (1994)
567. Doughty, Mike - Haughty Melodic (2005)
568. Love, Courtney - America's Sweetheart (2004)
569. Stone Roses - Second Coming (1994)
570. No Doubt - Tragic Kingdom (1995)
571. Candlebox - Candlebox (1993)
572. Outkast - Idlewild (2006)
573. Megadeth - Youthanasia (1994)
574. Sharp, Matt - Matt Sharp (2004)
575. At The Drive-In - Relationship Of Command (2000)
576. Blink-182 - Dude Ranch (1997)
577. Belly - Star (1993)
578. N.E.R.D - Fly Or Die (2004)
579. Prodigy - The Fat Of The Land (1997)
580. Eleven - Eleven (1993)
581. Foo Fighters - One By One (2002)
582. Bon Jovi - New Jersey (1988)
583. Pantera - Reinventing The Steel (2000)
584. Branch, Michelle - Hotel Paper (2003)
585. Morissette, Alanis - Under Rug Swept (2002)
586. Jewel - Pieces Of You (1994)
587. Springsteen, Bruce - The Rising (2002)
588. Wolfmother - Wolfmother (2006)
589. Velvet Revolver - Contraband (2004)
590. Blink-182 - Take Off Your Pants And Jacket (2001)
591. Ludacris - The Red Light District (2004)
592. Eels - Shootenanny! (2003)
593. Fountains Of Wayne - Welcome Interstate Managers (2003)
594. Stabbing Westward - Wither Blister Burn + Peel (1996)
595. Fireball Ministry - Their Rock Is Not Our Rock (2005)
596. Bush - The Science Of Things (1999)
597. Stone Temple Pilots - Shangri - La Dee Da (2001)
598. Marilyn Manson - Antichrist Superstar (1996)
599. Interpol - Turn On The Bright Lights (2002)
600. Fountains Of Wayne - Traffic And Weather (2007)
601. Pantera - Power Metal (1988)
602. Johnson, Jack - On And On (2003)
603. TLC - Fanmail (1999)
604. Nappy Roots - Watermelon, Chicken, And Gritz (2002)
605. Metallica - Load (1996)
606. Dr. Dre - 2001 (1999)
607. Metallica - Reload (1997)
608. Jackson, Michael - History (1995)
609. Soulfly - Soulfly (1998)
610. Hole - Nobody's Daughter (2010)
611. Jewel - Spirit (1998)
612. Spank Rock - Spank Rock And Benny Blanco Are…Bangers & Cash (2007)
613. West, Kanye - 808s & Heartbreak (2008)
-----------------------------------------------
311 - Greatest Hits '93-'03 (2004)
Abdul, Paula - Greatest Hits (2000)
Aerosmith - Big Ones (1994)
Beach Boys - Endless Summer (1974)
Beatles - 1962-1966 (1973)
Beethoven, Ludwig Van - Symphony No. 9; "Fidelio" Overture (1991)
Berlioz, Hector - Symphonie Fantastique; La Damnation De Faust (1972)
Blondie - The Best Of Blondie (1981)
Carpenters - The Singles 1969-1973 (1973)
Cars - Anthology: Just What I Needed (1995)
Cash, Johnny - The Sun Years (1990)
Cream - The Very Best Of Cream (1995)
Creedence Clearwater Revival - Chronicle: 20 Greatest Hits (1991)
Cure - Staring At The Sea: The Singles (1986)
Duran Duran - Decade (1989)
Eminem - Curtain Call - The Hits (2005)
Foo Fighters - This Is A Call (1995)
Foo Fighters - Big Me (1996)
Genesis - Turn It On Again - The Hits: The Tour Edition (2007)
Green Day - International Superhits! (2001)
Henley, Don - Actual Miles: Henley's Greatest Hits (1995)
Idol, Billy - The Very Best Of Billy Idol (2008)
Jackson, Janet - Design Of A Decade 1986/1996 (1995)
Jett, Joan - Fit To Be Tied: Great Hits (1997)
Lennon, John - Lennon Legend (1997)
Madonna - The Immaculate Collection (1990)
Madonna - Something To Remember (1995)
Mozart, Wolfgang Amadeus - Symphonies Nos. 35-41 (1966)
Mozart, Wolfgang Amadeus - Le Nozze Di Figaro (1999)
Nine Inch Nails - Further Down The Spiral (1995)
Nirvana - Oh, The Guilt (1993)
Nirvana - Singles Box (1995)
Nirvana - Nirvana (2002)
Nirvana - With The Lights Out (2004)
Pearl Jam - Merkinball (1995)
Petty, Tom - Greatest Hits (1993)
Police - Every Breath You Take: The Classics (1995)
Prince - The Hits 1 (1993)
Prince - The Hits 2 (1993)
Queen - Classic Queen (1992)
Queen - Greatest Hits (1992)
R.E.M. - Eponymous (1988)
Simon, Paul - Negotiations And Love Songs 1971-1986 (1988)
Smashing Pumpkins - Lull (1991)
Smashing Pumpkins - The Aeroplane Flies High (1996)
Smashing Pumpkins - Ava Adore (1998)
Smashing Pumpkins - Greatest Hits (2001)
Smith, Elliott - New Moon (2007)
Steve Miller Band - Greatest Hits 1974-78 (1990)
Tchaikovsky, Peter Ilyich - Nutcracker Suite; Serenade For Strings (1982)
TLC - Now & Forever - The Hits (2003)
U2 - The Best Of 1980-1990 (1998)
Various Artists - Batman & Robin Soundtrack (1997)
Various Artists - Crow Soundtrack (1994)
Various Artists - Crow: City Of Angels Soundtrack (1996)
Various Artists - DGC Rarities Vol. 1 (1994)
Various Artists - End Of Days Soundtrack (1999)
Various Artists - Last Action Hero Soundtrack (1993)
Various Artists - No Alternative (1993)
Various Artists - O Brother, Where Art Thou? Soundtrack (2000)
Various Artists - Singles Soundtrack (1992)
Various Artists - Sub Pop 200 (1988)
Various Artists - The Beavis And Butt-Head Experience (1993)

Quick Stock Update

2010-08-18T21:30:00.002-04:00

I recently sold Blockbuster (BLOKA.PK), Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB), and Motors Liquidation (MTLQQ.PK), all for having .XX in their ticker symbol (someday, I will learn to sell immediately/avoid stocks when they transition to Over-the-counter Bulletin board or PinK sheets). I also sold Ambac (ABK) for wondering out loud whether its stock was worthless.

All four stocks were sold at a significant percentage loss, but relatively insignificant monetary loss (but not so insignificant that I wouldn't bother to lock in those losses ASAP). Such is just part of the fun of owning a bucket of stocks that could only be called "The Distressed".

I will use the proceeds from these sales towards a newer, healthier, better stock in September.

Stocks Of The Month: FFIV, YRCW

2010-08-04T22:21:00.004-04:00

For this month, I've added a new high-flying non-dividend paying stock, and bought a little more of a distressed (and dangerous) transport stock.

F5 Networks (FFIV)

Positives:

Solid quarterly earnings (46%) and profit (78%) growth.

No debt.

Positive cash flows.

Possibly the next Cisco Systems, or a takeover candidate.

Negatives:

Somewhat expensive P/E ratio of 55.

Low insider ownership (0.5%).

YRC Worldwide (YRCW)

Positives:

Business headed towards profitability, after narrowing loss in latest quarter.

Negatives:

Probably one more lousy quarter away from bankruptcy.

Horrible fundamentals.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.68%

Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.35%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 7.31%

Google (GOOG) 7.16%

The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BGP, BLOKA.PK, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNMA.OB, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 5.41%

Ace Limited (ACE) 4.71%

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 4.52%

Frontline (FRO) 4.46%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.43%

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.07%

Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.24%

American Software (AMSWA) 3.01%

Vodafone (VOD) 2.86%

Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.75%

McDonald's (MCD) 2.71%

Blackstone (BX) 2.68%

DuPont (DD) 2.65%

Tidewater (TDW) 2.41%

Apache (APA) 2.37%

F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.18%

Cherokee (CHKE) 2.14%

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.03%

Cree (CREE) 1.94%

Baidu (BIDU) 1.92%

PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 1.91%

Open Letter To Dan Gilbert

2010-07-09T19:33:00.002-04:00

Dear Mr. Gilbert,

A few hours after LeBron James announced his plans to leave your team for Miami, you shared several unflattering characterizations of your former employee...

"narcissistic"
"cowardly"
"shameful"
"selfish"
"disloyal"
"heartless"
"callous"

...in an open letter that was shockingly amateurish and inappropriate for an owner, even one in mourning.

As a free agent, LeBron James had the right to choose who he plays with, and who he plays for. The city of Cleveland was fortunate enough to have him for the last seven years, and under your ownership for the last five years. He took a moribund franchise and carried it to unprecedented heights.

But basketball is a team game, and all superstars must have a supporting cast in order to win championships. For your reference, these are the teams that you have assembled for LeBron:

2005-06: Larry Hughes, Eric Snow, Flip Murray, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Donyell Marshall, Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao

2006-07: Hughes, Ilgauskas, Sasha Pavlovic, Gooden, Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Snow

2007-08: Delonte West, Ilgauskas, Wally Szczerbiak, Gibson, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Varejao

2008-09: Mo Williams*, West, Varejao, Ilgauskas, Smith, Wallace, Gibson

2009-10: Williams, Antawn Jamison, Anthony Parker, West, Varejao, Shaquille O'Neal, Jamario Moon

That lone asterisk next to Mo Williams' name represents the one NBA All-Star you were able to acquire to play alongside LeBron. The rest are big names that were either well past their prime or put up empty numbers for lousy teams, or fringe players in roles well beyond their talents. James Worthy, Scottie Pippen, David Robinson, Pau Gasol...those names are not.

In lieu of constructing a championship-worthy roster, you could have had the foresight to clear cap space in anticipation of LeBron's wishes, like Micky Arison and Pat Riley so brilliantly had done, but you failed in this regard as well.

The bitterness, resentment, and anger you feel is understandable, but misdirected. You have only yourself to blame for wasting so many prime seasons of one of the greatest players of all time. Furthermore, your poor behavior and lack of accountability ensure that your franchise would be extremely unlikely to have someone of his talent willing to play for your team ever again.

I personally guarantee that the Cleveland Cavaliers will never win an NBA championship under your ownership.

You can take it to the bank. Sleep well, Dan.

Sincerely,

J

Stocks Of The Month: BIDU, CREE, ISRG

2010-07-07T22:23:00.006-04:00

First, some housekeeping: Palm (PALM) was bought out by Hewlett-Packard, and I sold Biovail (BVF) after they announced a merger with Valeant...freeing up some additional cash for 3 high-flying non-dividend paying(!) stocks, 2 of which I've previously owned.

Baidu (BIDU)

Positives:
The Google of China.
High margins (36%), ROA (23%), ROE (42%).
No debt.

Negatives:
Very expensive P/E ratio of 96.

Cree (CREE)

Positives:
Designer and manufacturer of LEDs and LED-related hardware.
Excellent revenue (79%) and earnings (1012%!) growth.
$1B in cash, no debt.
Positive cash flow.

Negatives:
Somewhat expensive P/E ratio of 60.
Low ROA (5%) and ROE (7%).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Positives:
Super-cool surgical robots.
Excellent revenue (74%) and earnings (204%) growth.
No debt.
Positive cash flow.

Negatives:
Low insider ownership (1.3%).

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.82%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.51%
Google (GOOG) 7.10%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.60%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.08%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.03%
The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BGP, BLOKA.PK, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNM, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 4.78%
Frontline (FRO) 4.73%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 4.64%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.41%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.50%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.02%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.01%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.90%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.88%
Tidewater (TDW) 2.53%
Blackstone (BX) 2.48%
DuPont (DD) 2.46%
Apache (APA) 2.35%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.18%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.08%
Cree (CREE) 1.94%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 1.87%
Baidu (BIDU) 1.79%

Stock Of The Month: NLY

2010-06-13T16:34:00.003-04:00

June's SOTM is the same as January's SOTM.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Positives:
Huge profit and operating margins (91% and 93% respectively).
+18% spread between ROE and ROA.
Positive operating cash flow ($11B).
Trailing P/E of 5, forward P/E of 6.
Whopping 14.9% dividend yield.

Negatives:
Huge debt ($55B)...of course, debt is their business.
Low insider holding (0.63%).

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.25%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.80%
Google (GOOG) 7.51%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 7.07%
The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BBI, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNM, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PALM, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 5.72%
Frontline (FRO) 5.54%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 5.08%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.84%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.83%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.36%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.67%
American Software 3.53%
Biovail (BVF) 2.90%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.90%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.81%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.67%
Blackstone (BX) 2.67%
DuPont (DD) 2.56%
Tidewater (TDW) 2.55%
Apache (APA) 2.47%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.22%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 1.70%

Fearless NBA Predictions: Finals

2010-06-02T23:42:00.003-04:00

What we learned from the Conference Finals:
Orlando: unless Dwight Howard gets serious/develops a mean streak, the Magic cannot win a championship...Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter are paid like franchise players but clearly aren't, and Orlando is stuck with them both for at least another year.
Phoenix: went as far as their talent could take them...they are probably better off long-term if they let Amar'e Stoudemire walk this summer.

NBA Finals:
(4) Boston vs. (1) L.A. Lakers: Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett are the best players on the floor...the champions of the past two seasons, with each team clearly improved since...Rondo vs. Derek Fisher is the largest mismatch on the floor...Ray Allen can't guard Kobe Bryant 1-on-1, but he will have plenty of help...Ron Artest is destined to do something stupid under the pressure of the Finals...Paul Pierce will be guarded closely regardless...this series will be decided in the paint...Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace, and Glen Davis will outwork and out-tough Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom...when the Celtics "flip the switch" defensively, the results will be very similar to 2008. Celtics in 6.

Last round: 2-0
Postseason: 10-4

Stock Of The Month: DOM

2010-05-22T22:58:00.003-04:00

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)

Positives:
9% dividend yield.
As a trust, has a 100% payout ratio and is a pure dividend stock.

Negatives:
Little to no opportunity for capital gains.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.53%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.55%
Google (GOOG) 7.76%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 7.69%
The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BBI, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNM, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PALM, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 5.91%
Frontline (FRO) 5.12%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.05%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 4.53%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.46%
American Software 4.00%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.84%
Biovail (BVF) 3.25%
McDonald's (MCD) 3.03%
Blackstone (BX) 2.99%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.85%
Tidewater (TDW) 2.83%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.64%
DuPont (DD) 2.63%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.55%
Apache (APA) 2.53%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 2.14%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 1.86%

Fearless NBA Predictions: Conference Finals

2010-05-16T13:50:00.003-04:00

What we learned from Round 2:
Atlanta: when an above-average talent team that has no leadership knows that its multi-year (e.g. the Hawks' Mike Woodson/Joe Johnson era) run is about to end, it ends poorly.
Cleveland: a complete failure of superstar, team, coaching staff, and fans when placed under playoff pressure.
San Antonio: the Spurs' championship window is closing fast; the Tim Duncan/Gregg Popovich era will unwind for 2 more seasons, then the rebuilding begins.
Utah: Deron Williams is a superstar, who needs a lot more help.

And most of all - we learned that one player cannot carry a team to a championship alone. That should be completely obvious when the greatest player of all time (Jordan) needed a top-50 player (Pippen) to win it all...and therefore, I must immediately amend a previous post:

List Of NBA Superstars, And Their Indispensable Sidekicks, That Can Lead Their Team To A Championship

Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili.
Kevin Garnett/Rajon Rondo.
Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol.

On to the questions, and the picks:

1. Which team has "the best players on the floor"?
2. Which team has the more successful recent playoff history?
3. Which team plays better defense?

Eastern Conference:
(4) Boston vs. (2) Orlando: Kevin Garnett/Rajon Rondo...last two Finals representatives from the East, but Boston appears to have recaptured their championship mojo...Dwight Howard commands the paint; Garnett commands the floor. Celtics in 6.

Western Conference:
(3) Phoenix vs. (1) L.A. Lakers: Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol...Lakers are the defending champs, while the Suns are just happy to be here...Los Angeles will dominate the paint and boards. Lakers in 5.

Last round: 2-2
Postseason: 8-4

Fearless NBA Predictions: Conference Semifinals

2010-05-01T19:38:00.003-04:00

(Note: I skipped over the first round...where I would have picked the higher seeds in all matchups, and would have gone 6-2)

What we learned from Round 1:
Chicago: still on the right track, could really use Dwyane Wade this summer
Charlotte: probably headed back to the lottery next year
Milwaukee: the feel-good story of the year. A top-4 team next year in the East
Miami: If Wade leaves, there's nothing left
Oklahoma City: got their feet wet; will contend for the championship next year
Dallas: perpetual underachievers in the postseason
Portland: gutsy season, but not sure if they'll ever contend in the West
Denver: tough ending. Get well George Karl

The 3 simple questions method will continue from last year...even though they didn't exactly prove themselves to be effective:

1. Which team has "the best player(s) on the floor"?
2. Which team has the more successful recent playoff history?
3. Which team plays better defense?

Eastern Conference:
(4) Boston vs. (1) Cleveland: LeBron James...both teams have Finals experience, but the Celtics are just plain old...Boston plays defense in spurts; Cleveland plays for 48 minutes. Cavs in 5.

(3) Atlanta vs. (2) Orlando: Dwight Howard...Orlando has Finals experience, while Atlanta is looking at their last chance to get past the 2nd round...the more Howard stays on the floor, the greater advantage to Orlando's defense. Magic in 6.

Western Conference:
(5) Utah vs. (1) L.A. Lakers: Kobe Bryant...Lakers are the defending champs, waiting to "flip the switch"...significant edge to Utah in defense. This will be a rugged series. Lakers in 7.

(7) San Antonio vs. (3) Phoenix: Manu Ginobili...Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich and Co. have seen and done it all before...Spurs half-court style is built to win in the postseason. Spurs in 6.

Stocks Of The Month: BPT, HGT, PSEC

2010-03-03T20:44:00.003-05:00

First, while I was sleeping...Tesoro (TSO) suspended its dividend indefinitely, and Terra Nitrogen (TNH) failed to pay its dividend for the current quarter...shame on them. Therefore both stocks have been sold, allowing for 3 new stocks for March.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)

Positives:
Massive 16% and 9.3% dividend yields respectively.

Negatives:
100% payout ratio (due to being trusts) equals lumpy dividends.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)

Positives:
13.9% dividend yield.
6+ year history of increased dividends.
Low forward P/E of 9.

Negatives:
Private equity / venture capital / risky financial company...buyer beware.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 10.66%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 10.21%
Google (GOOG) 8.84%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 5.90%
The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BBI, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNM, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PALM, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 5.83%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.03%
Frontline (FRO) 4.54%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 4.50%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 4.43%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 4.36%
American Software 3.89%
Blackstone (BX) 3.79%
Biovail (BVF) 3.30%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.21%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.06%
Tidewater (TDW) 2.97%
Apache (APA) 2.95%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.80%
DuPont (DD) 2.46%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 2.43%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.30%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.19%

Stocks Of The Month: The Distressed 2010

2010-02-13T15:49:00.006-05:00

I have to admit...I've been looking forward to this for a while.

Last February, I made the completely liberating decision to buy crappy stocks and not care if they lose money. Pleasantly/well timed to the market recovery, 7 of those 10 stocks are in the black one year later.

So I will repeat the selection progress from last year: 10 more lousy stocks, each 1/10th of what I usually invest per month. And 10 more snarky comments for each wretched stock.

Without further ado, I present to you the 10 newest members of "The Distressed" (percentages are from 52-week high):

Ambac Financial (ABK, -71%): bond insurer which somewhat famously imploded in the fall of 2008.
Blockbuster (BBI, -76%): just like Netflix, but with way more overhead and debt.
Borders (BGP, -73%): old-fashioned, old-media retailer very near to bankruptcy.
China Real Estate Information (CRIC, -45%): irresistible intersection of the twin bubbles of China and real estate.
Energy Conversion Devices (ENER, -74%): beat-down solar cell and nickel battery company.
E*Trade (ETFC, -49%): nearly wiped out by mortgage business. Minus points for annoying talking baby commercials.
GigaMedia (GIGM, -61%): the worst of many Chinese online gaming stocks.
Jackson Hewitt (JTX, -81%): completely inferior competitor to the larger, healthier HR Block.
Palm (PALM, -45%): largely invented the smartphone, only to get trampled by everyone else.
MetroPCS (PCS, -69%): second-tier mobile provider. Bonus points for "Tech & Talk" commercials.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Southern Copper (PCU) 10.92%
Apple (AAPL) 10.67%
Google (GOOG) 9.03%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 6.82%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.46%
The Distressed (ABK, AIG, BBI, BGP, C, CRIC, ENER, ETFC, F, FNM, GIGM, JSDA, JTX, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, PALM, PCS, WFC, YRCW) 5.76%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.07%
Tesoro (TSO) 4.90%
Frontline (FRO) 4.55%
American Software 4.02%
Blackstone (BX) 3.66%
Biovail (BVF) 3.24%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.11%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.05%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.03%
Apache (APA) 2.97%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.90%
DuPont (DD) 2.42%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 2.40%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.35%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.19%

Super Bowl Pick

2010-02-07T11:59:00.002-05:00

Indianapolis (-4.5) over New Orleans

Outright: Colts 41, Saints 31

Last week: 2-0
Playoffs: 4 -6
Last week outright: 1-1
Playoffs outright: 4-6

Stock Of The Month: NLY

2010-01-31T15:28:00.002-05:00

For what it's worth, I still think Annaly is the best real estate stock out there (for those of you that really want to be in real estate). - January 1, 2009

I'm going to try something new for the Stock Of The Month: instead of a lot of blahblahblah (which usually reads remarkably similar from month to month), I'm just going to list the good and bad from Yahoo's Key Statistics page.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Positives:

Huge profit and operating margins (83% and 86% respectively).

+7% spread between ROE and ROA.

Positive operating cash flow ($9B).

Trailing P/E of 13, forward P/E of 6.

Whopping 17.3% dividend yield.

Negatives:

Huge debt ($57B)...of course, debt is their business.

Low insider holding (0.55%).

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 10.70%

Southern Copper (PCU) 9.84%

Google (GOOG) 9.39%

Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 6.92%

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.68%

Frontline (FRO) 5.40%

Ace Limited (ACE) 5.36%

Tesoro (TSO) 5.35%

American Software 3.94%

Blackstone (BX) 3.53%

The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, JSDA, MOT, MTLQQ.PK, WFC, YRCW) 3.42%

Biovail (BVF) 3.38%

Tidewater (TDW) 3.32%

Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.22%

Vodafone (VOD) 3.21%

McDonald's (MCD) 3.00%

Apache (APA) 3.00%

DuPont (DD) 2.56%

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 2.55%

PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.32%

Cherokee (CHKE) 2.23%

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2010-01-24T14:07:00.003-05:00

INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over N.Y. Jets
Minnesota (+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Outright winners: Indianapolis, Minnesota

Last week: 1-3
Playoffs: 2-6
Last week outright: 2-2
Playoffs outright: 3-5

NFL Divisional Round Picks

2010-01-16T13:55:00.002-05:00

Arizona (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Baltimore (+6) over INDIANAPOLIS
MINNESOTA (-3) over Dallas
SAN DIEGO (-7) over N.Y. Jets

Outright winners: Arizona, Indianapolis, Minnesota, San Diego

Last week: 1-3
Outright: 1-3

NFL Wild Card Picks

2010-01-09T16:27:00.002-05:00

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over N.Y. Jets
DALLAS (-3.5) over Philadelphia
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Baltimore
Green Bay (pick) over ARIZONA

Last week: 11-4-1
Season record: 152-98-6

2009 Stock Recap

2010-01-06T20:27:00.005-05:00

2009 was a pretty good year for the portfolio - a 39.0% return vs. 23.5% for the S&P 500, and only 1 stock sold after a ridiculous 19 the previous year:

Atlas Resources (ATN)/Atlas Energy (ATLS)
Year-opening price: $14.85
Sold: Apr @ $28.47 (92%)
Year-closing price: $30.14 (103%)

With that out of the way, here are the ongoing concerns, ranked from worst to best:

Motors Liquidation (MTLQQ.PK)
Bought: Feb @ $3.00 (as GM)
Year-closing price: $0.47 (-84%)
Slowly but surely meandering its way to zero.

YRC Worldwide (YRCW)
Bought: Feb @ $2.90
Year-closing price: $0.84 (-71%)
Shaping up as a lottery ticket due to likely bankruptcy.

Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $29.61
Sold: Nov @ $23.99 (-19%)
Re-bought: Dec @ $29.30
Year-closing price: $27.32 (-7%)
Did a terrible job of trading, but I still like the business.

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $16.60
Year-closing price: $14.29 (-14%)
Saved by the dividend.

Jones Soda (JSDA)
Bought: Feb @ $0.46
Year-closing price: $0.43 (-7%)
Sugar-high, then sugar-crash for this stock.

Ace Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $52.92
Year-closing price: $50.40 (-5%)
A still-very-sleepy financial company.

Citigroup (C)
Bought: Feb @ $3.41
Year-closing price: $3.31 (-3%)
America's worst bank, desperately needs to be broken up and sold off.

Cherokee (CHKE)
Bought: May @ $18.30
Year-closing price: $17.82 (-3%)
11% dividend yield.

Great Northern Iron (GNI)
Bought: Oct @ $94.73
Year-closing price: $94.00 (-1%)
Most recent commodity play, bought near the top.

PDL BioPharma (PDLI)
Bought: Jun @ $6.94
Year-closing price: $6.86 (-1%)
14.5% dividend yield.

McDonald's (MCD)
Bought: Nov @ $62.49
Year-closing price: $62.44 (0%)
Hoping for international growth, and domestic stability.

Tesoro (TSO)
Year-opening price: $13.17
Year-closing price: $13.55 (3%)
An up-and-down stock - not for the faint of heart.

DuPont (DD)
Bought: Sep @ $32.36
Year-closing price: $33.67 (4%)
Big and boring, just like I hoped.

Vodafone (VOD)
Bought: Oct @ $21.47
Year-closing price: $23.09 (8%)
Should be sure and steady growth for years.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Year-opening price: $94.25
Year-closing price: $104.08 (10%)
The 6% dividend helps here.

American International Group (AIG)
Bought: Feb @ $25.40 (split-adjusted)
Year-closing price: $29.98 (18%)
I have no idea where this stock is going.

Tidewater (TDW)
Year-opening price: $40.27
Year-closing price: $47.95 (19%)
A quietly solid year for this offshore oil services company.

Biovail (BVF)
Bought: Apr @ $10.92
Year-closing price: $13.96 (28%)
Bought strictly for the dividend (which was slashed), but capital gains have made up for it.

Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $74.53
Year-closing price: $103.17 (38%)
Nice bounceback for this oil and gas company.

Blackstone (BX)
Bought: Feb @ $4.43, Jul @ $10.17
Year-closing price: $13.12 (38%)

My favorite weasels of Wall Street.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Bought: Feb @ $18.40
Year-closing price: $26.99 (47%)
America's finest bank (not that that really means anything).

American Software (AMSWA)
Bought: Mar @ $3.52
Year-closing price: $6.00 (70%)
Nice little tech stock.

Motorola (MOT)
Bought: Feb @ $4.43
Year-closing price: $7.76 (75%)
The phone slump could be over with the Droid.

Fannie Mae (FNM)
Bought: Feb @ $0.60
Year-closing price: $1.18 (97%)
Some people believe this stock is worthless, and I'm not certain they're wrong.

Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $307.65
Year-closing price: $619.98 (102%)
2009 was the year Android finally broke through.

Southern Copper (PCU)
Year-opening price: $16.06
Year-closing price: $32.91 (105%)
Copper a big participant in the commodity bull run, version 2.0.

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $85.35
Year-closing price: $210.73 (147%)
Can the iPhone and App Store be stopped?

Ford (F)
Bought: Feb @ $1.86
Year-closing price: $10.00 (438%)
Dare I say it, the great American car company.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2010-01-02T23:40:00.001-05:00

BUFFALO (-8.5) over Indianapolis
CAROLINA (-7) over New Orleans
Jacksonville (+1.5) over CLEVELAND
Philadelphia (+3) over DALLAS
Chicago (-3) over DETROIT
New England (+8) over HOUSTON
Pittsburgh (-3) over MIAMI
MINNESOTA (-9) over N.Y. Giants
N.Y. JETS (-10) over Cincinnati
San Francisco (-8) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (-2) over TAMPA BAY
Green Bay (+3.5) over ARIZONA
DENVER (-11) over Kansas City
Baltimore (-10) over OAKLAND
Washington (+3.5) over SAN DIEGO
Tennessee (-4) over SEATTLE

Last week: 11-4-1

Season: 141-94-5

NFL Week 16 Picks

2009-12-25T14:42:00.003-05:00

San Diego (+3) over TENNESSEE
GREEN BAY (-14) over Seattle
CLEVELAND (-3) over Oakland
Kansas City (+13) over CINCINNATI
ATLANTA (-9) over Buffalo
MIAMI (-3) over Houston
Carolina (+7) over N.Y. GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS (-14) over Tampa Bay
NEW ENGLAND (-8) over Jacksonville
Baltimore (+3) over PITTSBURGH
PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Denver
ARIZONA (-14) over St. Louis
SAN FRANCISCO (-13) over Detroit
N.Y. Jets (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Dallas (-7) over WASHINGTON
Minnesota (-7) over CHICAGO

Last week: 8-7-1

Season: 130-90-4

NFL Week 15 Picks

2009-12-17T20:13:00.004-05:00

Indianapolis (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Dallas
Green Bay (+2) over PITTSBURGH
Miami (+3.5) over TENNESSEE
New England (-7) over BUFFALO
Arizona (-12.5) over DETROIT
San Francisco (+8) over PHILADELPHIA
Atlanta (+6) over N.Y. JETS
BALTIMORE (-11) over Chicago
Cleveland (+2) over KANSAS CITY
Houston (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati (+7) over SAN DIEGO
DENVER (-14) over Oakland
SEATTLE (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
Minnesota (-9) over CAROLINA
N.Y. Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON

Last week: 10-6
Season: 122-83-3

NFL Week 14 Picks

2009-12-10T19:55:00.003-05:00

Pittsburgh (-10) over CLEVELAND
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Denver
MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Cincinnati
TAMPA BAY (+3) over N.Y. Jets
KANSAS CITY (pick) over Buffalo
Green Bay (-3) over CHICAGO
New Orleans (-10) over ATLANTA
Detroit (+13.5) over BALTIMORE
Miami (+2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Carolina (+13) over NEW ENGLAND
HOUSTON (-6.5) over Seattle
TENNESSEE (-13) over St. Louis
Washington (-1) over OAKLAND
San Diego (+3) over DALLAS
Philadelphia (+1) over N.Y. GIANTS
Arizona (-3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

Last week: 6-10
Season: 112-77-3

NFL Week 13 Picks

2009-12-03T16:28:00.004-05:00

N.Y. Jets (-3) over BUFFALO
Denver (-4½) over KANSAS CITY
PITTSBURGH (-14½) over Oakland
Houston (pick) over JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee (+6½) over INDIANAPOLIS
Philadelphia (-5½) over ATLANTA
CINCINNATI (-13) over Detroit
New Orleans (-9½) over WASHINGTON
CAROLINA (-5) over Tampa Bay
St. Louis (+9½) over CHICAGO
San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND
San Francisco (pick) over SEATTLE
Minnesota (-3) over ARIZONA
Dallas (-2½) over N.Y. GIANTS
New England (-4) over MIAMI
GREEN BAY (-3) over Baltimore

Last week: 9-6-1
Season: 106-67-3

NFL Week 12 Picks

2009-11-25T17:11:00.005-05:00

Green Bay (-10.5) over DETROIT
DALLAS (-13.5) over Oakland
N.Y. Giants (-7) over DENVER
Indianapolis (-3½) over HOUSTON
CINCINNATI (-13½) over Cleveland
MINNESOTA (-10½) over Chicago
PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Washington
Miami (-3) over BUFFALO
Arizona (+3) over TENNESSEE
Seattle (-3½) over ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay (+12) over ATLANTA
Carolina (+3) over N.Y. JETS
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville
Kansas City (+13½) over SAN DIEGO
BALTIMORE (+3) over Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS (-1½) over New England

Last week: 9-7
Season: 97-61-2

NFL Week 11 Picks

2009-11-19T20:24:00.004-05:00

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami
DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland
Buffalo (+8.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis (-1.5) over BALTIMORE
Atlanta (+7) over N.Y. GIANTS
San Francisco (+6.5) over GREEN BAY
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle
DALLAS (-11) over Washington
New Orleans (-10.5) over TAMPA BAY
Arizona (-9) over ST. LOUIS
NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over N.Y. Jets
Cincinnati (-9) over OAKLAND
DENVER (+3) over San Diego
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Tennessee (+4) over HOUSTON

Last week: 9-6
Season: 88-54-2

Stock Of The Month: MCD

2009-11-16T23:05:00.002-05:00

This month's stock is down with the clown.

Continuing with "big and boring", McDonald's (MCD) is the world's cafeteria, with nearly 32,000 restaurants in 118 countries. Their long-term chart is a thing of beauty; a mostly uninterrupted march from the lower-left to the upper-right. They pay a very safe dividend of 3.5%. And most importantly, they serve the tastiest french fries money can buy.

As a footnote, Frontline (FRO) has been sold in a 30+ day (i.e. non-"wash sale") transaction, and will return to the portfolio next month.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Southern Copper (PCU) 12.54%
Apple (AAPL) 10.90%
Google (GOOG) 9.68%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.74%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 6.45%
Tesoro (TSO) 5.59%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.28%
American Software 4.41%
Blackstone (BX) 4.20%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.40%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.31%
Biovail (BVF) 3.05%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.04%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.03%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.94%
Apache (APA) 2.89%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.88%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.61%
DuPont (DD) 2.60%

NFL Week 10 Picks

2009-11-12T20:20:00.002-05:00

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Chicago
N.Y. JETS (-7) over Jacksonville
Denver (-3.5) over WASHINGTON
Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
TENNESSEE (-7) over Buffalo
MINNESOTA (-16.5) over Detroit
New Orleans (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA
Tampa Bay (+10) over MIAMI
Kansas City (+2) over OAKLAND
ARIZONA (-8.5) over Seattle
Philadelphia (+1) over SAN DIEGO
Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY
New England (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore (-10.5) over CLEVELAND

Last week: 6-6-1

Season: 79-48-2