Stocks Of The Month: NVDA, TSLA, ULTA

"The Great 28"

As mentioned before, we're going to keep 2017 as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments. For this month, that means adding to existing holdings NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla Motors (TSLA); but also, a new (hopefully winning) investment: ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA).

ULTA has everything I am looking for: outstanding revenue (24%) and profit (23%) growth; zero debt; positive cash flows; and most importantly, an established history of outperforming the market across several time horizons.

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.08%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 10.84%
3D Systems (DDD) 10.13%
Amazon (AMZN) 9.12%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.74%
Facebook (FB) 5.48%
Twitter (TWTR) 4.90%
Stratasys (SSYS) 3.86%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.50%
Under Armour (UAA) 3.30%
Nike (NKE) 3.09%
Starbucks (SBUX) 2.71%
Chubb Limited (CB) 2.47%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.29%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.28%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.26%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 1.97%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.85%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.34%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.21%
Intel (INTC) 1.16%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.06%
ExOne (XONE) 0.86%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.81%
Waste Management (WM) 0.70%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.69%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.67%
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 0.58%

2016 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

In case you missed it, a portfolio-shrinking, return-challenged "Departed" recap can be found here.

For the fifth time in the past six years, my portfolio underperformed the S&P 500, losing -0.5% vs. gaining 12.0%. It is my worst year vs. the S&P 500 since 2001.

And yet, I achieved some major goals this year: reducing my number of stocks held to 27; achieving a savings return of 20%; and increasing my net worth to an all-time high. (Finance is more than just picking stocks, no?) We're going to keep 2017 as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2016's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


ExOne (XONE)
Bought: Oct @ $15.75
Year-closing price: $9.34 (-40%)
Lost an impressive amount of money in a short amount of time.

Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $23.48
Bought more: Jan @ $24.82, Jun @ $22.42
Year-closing price: $16.54 (-30%)
Lost an impressive amount of money over a long amount of time.

Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $23.14
Bought more: Jan @ $22.78, Feb @ $17.18, May @ $14.20, Jun @ $15.08, Oct @ $23.69
Year-closing price: $16.30 (-30%)
Was convinced someone would buy their great product; nobody wants their lousy company.

Under Armour (UAA)
Year-opening price: $40.31
Bought more: Apr @ $42.58
Year-closing price: $29.05 (-28%)
A terrible year for athletic companies, part one.

Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $62.50
Bought more: Sep @ $58.60
Year-closing price: $50.83 (-19%)
A terrible year for athletic companies, part two.

Salesforce.com (CRM)
Year-opening price: $78.40
Bought more: Aug @ $80.76
Year-closing price: $68.46 (-13%)
The market disagrees, but...they really need to buy Twitter.

Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $240.01
Bought more: Mar @ $194.25, Jul @ $209.75, Nov @ $189.75
Year-closing price: $213.69 (-11%)
Elon Musk believes his will be the first trillion-dollar company. Don't doubt him.

Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $60.03
Bought more: Sep @ $56.57
Year-closing price: $55.52 (-8%)
Breather year, after a great 2015.

Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $161.50
Bought more: Sep @ $156.80
Year-closing price: $160.11 (-1%)
The finest (brick and mortar) retailer in the world.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Bought: Dec @ $160.91
Year-closing price: $160.04 (-1%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.

Aqua America (WTR)
Year-opening price: $29.80
Year-closing price: $30.04 (1%)
Not sure how they continue to underperform American Water Works so badly.

Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $778.01
Bought more: Aug @ $797.33, Nov @ $801.42
Year-closing price: $792.45 (2%)
The best proxy for tech money can buy. Automated driving will become a(nother) cash cow.

Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $34.45
Year-closing price: $36.27 (5%)
Has been surpassed by NVIDIA, but will still make lots of money.

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $105.26
Bought more: Apr @ $110.41, Sep @ $107.67
Year-closing price: $115.82 (10%)
In the strange position of being underappreciated.

Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $675.89
Bought more: Mar @ $556.73, May @ $677.36, Jul @ $722.80, Nov @ $782.50
Year-closing price: $749.87 (11%)
Having wrecked traditional retail, incredibly well positioned to dominate the next decade.

BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $340.52
Year-closing price: $380.54 (12%)
Will be owned as long as it continues years like this.

Facebook (FB)
Bought: Jan @ $102.87, Apr @ $114.10, May @ $117.55, Jun @ $118.45, Jul @ $113.90, Nov @ $130.04
Year-closing price: $115.05 (12%)
Along with Google, monetizes the internet better than anyone else.

Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Bought: Jan @ $92.01, Aug @ $97.38
Year-closing price: $102.95 (12%)
A premium software company.

Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $55.48
Year-closing price: $62.14 (12%)
The post-Ballmer winning streak continues.

Ace Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $116.85
Year-closing price: $132.12 (13%)
My longest-held stock (since 2004); in a word, consistent.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $546.16
Bought more: Aug @ $694.87
Year-closing price: $634.17 (16%)
Up and down year, ended up. A company without peers.

Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $55.88
Year-closing price: $67.40 (21%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful.

American Water Works (AWK)
Year-opening price: $59.75
Year-closing price: $72.36 (21%)
Not sure how they continue to outperform Aqua America so badly.

Autodesk (ADSK)
Bought: Jan @ $60.39
Year-closing price: $74.01 (23%)
The software side of 3D printing had a great year.

NVIDIA (NVDA)
Bought: Dec @ $86.10
Year-closing price: $106.74 (24%)
The best chipmaker in the world. A triple-threat of deep learning, automated driving, and virtual reality.

Waste Management (WM)
Bought: Feb @ $52.72
Year-closing price: $70.91 (35%)
Hot garbage.

3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $8.69
Bought more: Jan @ $9.83, Feb @ $7.57, Apr @ $15.07, Oct @ $17.92
Year-closing price: $13.29 (53%)
Should have bought more at the early-year lows. Long-term investment beginning to pay off.

2016 Stock Recap: The Departed

A tradition unlike any other...

For the fifth time in the past six years, my portfolio underperformed the S&P 500, losing -0.5% vs. gaining 12.0%.  It is my worst year vs. the S&P 500 since 2001.

And yet, I achieved some major goals this year:  reducing my number of stocks held to 27; achieving a savings return of 20%; and increasing my net worth to an all-time high.  (Finance is more than just picking stocks, no?)  We're going to keep 2017 as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2016's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


F5 Networks (FFIV)
Year-opening price: $96.96
Sold: Feb @ $96.98 (0%)
Year-closing price: $144.72 (49%)
Evidently, they finally figured their business out, after I sold.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Year-opening price: $52.47
Sold: Apr @ $66.97 (28%)
Year-closing price: $64.99 (24%)
Too volatile/doesn't have a clear path for success.

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $26.12
Sold: Apr @ $27.10 (4%)
Year-closing price: $31.94 (22%)
Owned for over 11 years.  Good for a dividend, and not much else.

DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $66.60
Sold: Jan @ $65.12 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $73.40 (10%)
Sold on first trading day of 2016 due to pending merger with Dow Chemical. Returned 101% (12% annualized).

Boeing (BA)
Year-opening price: $144.59
Sold: Jun @ $127.08 (-12%)
Year-closing price: $155.68 (8%)
Flat revenues, suspect dividend.

American Express (AXP)
Year-opening price: $69.55
Sold: Jan @ $53.18 (-24%)
Year-closing price: $74.08 (7%)
Sold after lousy quarterly results; bounced back thereafter.  Still not interested.

Qihoo 360 (QIHU)
Year-opening price: $72.81
Sold: Jan @ $72.15 (-1%)
Year-closing price: Jul @ $76.92 (6%)
Sold on first trading day of 2016 due to pending privatization at $77/share. Returned 22% (8% annualized).

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $118.14
Sold: Sep @ $114.69 (-3%)
Year-closing price: $121.72 (3%)
Days are numbered for "fast food" as we know it.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $54.36
Sold: Aug @ $50.75 (-7%)
Year-closing price: $55.11 (1%)
Irreparably damaged goods.  Not interested in financial stocks going forward.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $10.18
Sold: May @ $9.63 (-5%)
Year-closing price: $10.33 (1%)
Hasn't moved significantly in nearly a decade.

Ansys (ANSS)
Year-opening price: $92.50
Sold: Oct @ $91.73 (-1%)
Year-closing price: $92.49 (-0%)
Need more upside in a tech stock.

Coca-Cola (KO)
Year-opening price: $42.96
Sold: Sep @ $42.21 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $41.46 (-3%)
Not sure where it goes from here.  Probably not the next "big tobacco".

Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $29.24
Sold: Apr @ $27.74 (-5%)
Year-closing price: $27.03 (-8%)
Should be printing money; instead, a loser 2 years in a row.

Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $189.04
Sold: Jul @ $161.01 (-15%)
Year-closing price: $164.41 (-13%)
Irrelevant outside of their local market.

Veolia Environnement (VEOEY)
Year-opening price: $23.59
Sold: Dec @ $16.65 (-29%)
Year-closing price: $16.95 (-28%)
Great assets, lousy management and execution.