Monday, March 16, 2020

The Total Re-Org

Inspired by this Epsilon Theory post by Rusty Guinn: I'm imagining the brave new world brought upon us by the pandemic. Guinn's premise is that the post-recovery world will not be exactly like it was before; some of the economic and social changes we are experiencing now will become part of the new "normal".

I will add to that: some of the long-term trends we are seeing will be accelerated, and some of the industries facing persistent upheaval/disruption will be pushed over the brink.  Out of both necessity and preference, we are all facing a total re-org of our daily lives.

Here is my running list of winning and losing industries.  I will revisit and update on an ongoing basis.

Winners:
  • 5G
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Automation
  • Brick-and-mortar retail that includes fresh food
  • Cloud computing
  • E-commerce
  • Home cleaning products/services
  • Home delivery services
  • the "Internet of things"
  • Personal health and hygiene products/services
  • Video conferencing
  • Video game consoles/services
  • Video streaming services

Losers:
  • Brick-and-mortar retail without fresh food and online storefront (e.g. department stores)
  • Destination-based entertainment (e.g. theme parks)
  • Hospitality
  • Human transports
  • In-person conferences, fairs, and festivals
  • In-person live events (e.g. concerts, sports)
  • Internal combustion engine automobiles and automobile services/infrastructure
  • Oil and oil services/infrastructure
  • Office- and retail-based REITs


Monday, March 2, 2020

Stock Of The Month: MSFT

For the foreseeable future, I not only want to track which of my Big Five I buy in a given month - I want to track those that I don't buy.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • $937.8B market cap
  • no dividend
  • $280.5B revenue
  • 21% revenue growth
  • $38.5B operating cash flow
  • $18.8B free cash flow


Apple (AAPL)

  • $1.20T market cap
  • 1.1% dividend yield
  • $267.7B revenue
  • 9% revenue growth
  • $73.2B operating cash flow
  • $45.6B free cash flow


Microsoft (MSFT)

  • $1.20T market cap
  • 1.3% dividend yield
  • $134.3B revenue
  • 14% revenue growth
  • $54.1B operating cash flow
  • $35.1B free cash flow


NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • $154.6B market cap
  • 0.3% dividend yield
  • $10.9B revenue
  • 41% revenue growth
  • $4.8B operating cash flow
  • $3.2B free cash flow


Tesla (TSLA)

  • $125.2B market cap
  • no dividend
  • $24.6B revenue
  • 2% revenue growth
  • $2.4B operating cash flow
  • $1.5B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Tesla (TSLA) 18.96%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 15.06%
Apple (AAPL) 12.17%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.60%
Microsoft (MSFT) 10.26%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 4.86%
Facebook (FB) 3.02%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.71%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.33%
Salesforce (CRM) 1.88%
Visa (V) 1.79%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.71%
Nike (NKE) 1.65%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.58%
Intel (INTC) 1.57%
Comcast (CMCSA) 1.40%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.30%
Waste Management (WM) 1.17%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 1.00%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.81%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.77%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.63%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.62%
CSX (CSX) 0.59%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.29%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.26%