Friday, December 3, 2021

ETNs Of The Month: GLDI, USOI

First, a sale!  Facebook (FB) triggered a sale after declining 20% from its all-time high.  First bought in January 2016, it was repurchased seven additional times but not since May 2018.  It was sold for a 159% gain (17% annualized).  Facebook is a cash cow which seems to have squeezed every imaginable dollar from its current platforms.  Facing an uncertain future with its announced pivot to the Metaverse as well as increasing regulatory scrutiny, I am more comfortable owning FB via QQQM and not directly.  

The proceeds from this sale were directed into my favorite basket of yield ETF/Ns:  the index covered calls of QYLD, RYLD, and XYLD; the covered calls of SLVO (silver, previously bought); and new covered calls GLDI (gold) and USOI (oil).

As noted in July, SLVO's yield was an unsustainable 35%; it is currently 28%.  GLDI and USOI are currently yielding 11% and 24% respectively.  Anything above the index covered calls' range of 9% to 12% is a bonus.  Adding GLDI and USOI to SLVO will result in more reliable, less lumpy overall monthly cash flows.


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 split between stocks and yield. As seen below, it is currently 54/46.

I am in no rush to flip into yield. I would rather let my winners run forever. However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond, preferred stock, and/or covered call ETF/Ns. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.73T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $458.0B revenue
  • 15% revenue growth
  • $79.0B cash
  • $152.8B debt
  • $54.7B operating cash flow
  • $9.3B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $2.42T market cap
  • 0.8% dividend yield
  • $176.3B revenue
  • 22% revenue growth
  • $130.6B cash
  • $78.9B debt
  • $82.0B operating cash flow
  • $49.8B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETF/ETNs - until I sell them.

Microsoft (MSFT) 16.16%
Amazon (AMZN) 12.48%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 11.77%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 11.73%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 11.60%
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) 7.21%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 5.75%
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) 3.79%
Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) 2.82%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.69%
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) 2.43%
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) 2.34%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.70%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.51%
Verizon (VZ) 1.09%
Visa (V) 1.06%
AT&T (T) 0.94%
Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO) 0.84%
Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs (USOI) 0.75%
Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI) 0.75%
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) 0.10%
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) 0.04%
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 (URTY) 0.03%

Thursday, October 7, 2021

I Say "Invest Every Month." Have I Actually Done What I've Said?

TL;DR - no.  But I've tried.


If someone asks me what was the one thing I did right as an investor for the past 20+ years, it is that I have invested often.  Markets down, markets up; single, married; career going not-so-well, career going well; etc.  I would boil this invest-often philosophy into some expression like "invest at regularly scheduled intervals" or more simply "invest every month."  So here is the hypothetical follow-up question to be answered:  Have I actually done what I've said?


[As you can see, the title of this graph is "Number of Months Invested per Year" when a more correct title would be "Number of Months with Deposits per Year - Ignoring Withdrawals and Purchases funded by Sales."  I chose the former because it more clearly expresses the ability to save money to my investment account]


Recency bias strikes again.  From 2013-2020, "invest(ing) every month" was more or less true.  Before that, it seems more of an aspiration.  

Early in my career, I just didn't have extra money in most months.  2011 and 2012 were spent knocking out student loan debt (not the smartest choice, especially given market performance since).  In my best years I didn't hit 100%.  Even worse, there appears to be some correlation between market performance and number of months invested; the dreaded act of "timing the market." There is definitely some not-so-great, actually-quite-awful personal financing going on here for nearly two-thirds of my career.  Further data supporting here...


[Monetary amounts removed because 1) it's tacky and 2) in the context of this post, the amounts matter more in the relative sense]


In conclusion, "invest every month" is not the best advice.  Perhaps "invest what you can, when you can" is better, with the knowledge that approximately no one ever has regretted investing too much or starting too early.

Tuesday, October 5, 2021

An Updated Summary of My Grand Unified Theory of Investing

 Check out my previous post for how we landed here...




Account:

IRA

Roth IRA

Stocks & Income

Current percentage of total holdings:

~26%

~4%

~70%

Investment philosophy:

Jack Bogle

George Soros

Warren Buffett

Headline summary:

“Don't Do Something,
Just Stand There!”

“You Call That A Position?”

“Wonderful Companies at Fair Prices”

Account holdings:

• 55% indices (IWM, QQQJ, QQQM, VOO)
• 23% high-yield stocks (VIG, VYM)
• 22% high-yield bonds (HYLB, USHY)

• 100% one “high-conviction” stock (???)

• 55% stocks (2 core holdings + others, QQQJ, QQQM, TQQQ, UPRO, URTY)
• 8% index covered call ETFs (QYLD, RYLD, XYLD)
• 37% preferred stock/bond/ commodity ETFs (HYLB, PFFD, SLVO, USHY)

Are dividends
reinvested?

Yes

No

No

Investment schedule:

N/A

Asynchronous

Synchronous

When do I intend to make changes?

Never

When I have a higher-conviction bet than the existing one

Monthly purchases; "I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them"

Is account actively
funded with new contributions?

No

No

No

Is account written about on this blog monthly / ever?

No

No

Yes

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Searching With My Good Eye Closed: 284 Stocks That I Don't Own, And Wish I Could (2021 Edition)

If I took you for a ride, would you take it wrong?
Or would you make it right, make it right?
Looking for a pedestal that I can put you on
And be on my way, on my way

Fun fact: I have 10 "watchlists", broken out by sector, which in total contain 932 stocks. These watchlists mostly consist of stocks that at some point in time made me say "wow, that is interesting", followed by me forgetting about them entirely, followed by me looking at them and saying "what is this, and why is it here?"

I also have a 11th watchlist entitled "Short List" (which, ironically, is the longest list of all) consisting of the stocks that I actually pay attention to, and have varying degrees of intent for addition to my portfolio in the future.

I have completed the yearly effort to update the "Short List" by combing through all 11 watchlists, looking for one particular characteristic: the stock must have consistently outperformed the market, across several historical time horizons.

The following 284 stocks made the cut. They may have questionable valuation/financials, or lack upside due to shear size, or participate in a boring business, or represent additional risks going forward; but if the point of investing in individual stocks is to beat the broader market, all of these stocks have a history of doing exactly just that...which may be the most fundamental characteristic of all.

I will track these and post an update one year from now. Find out how the choices of the last five years performed: 20202019201820172016.

(Note:  each of the first, second, fourth, seventh, and eighth stocks in this list were sold from my portfolio in 2020; they are more "stocks that I once owned, and glad I did".)

NAME

SYMBOL

CURRENT MKT CAP

# YEARS ON LIST

Apple Inc.

AAPL

2.478T

-

Tesla, Inc.

TSLA

626.742B

-

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

TSM

609.52B

1

NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA

472.639B

-

LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Société Européenne

LVMHF

398.635B

-

PayPal Holdings, Inc.

PYPL

348.319B

4

Adobe Inc.

ADBE

288.779B

-

NIKE, Inc.

NKE

255.465B

-

Netflix, Inc.

NFLX

240.746B

5

Eli Lilly and Company

LLY

221.986B

-

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

TMO

202.205B

-

Danaher Corporation

DHR

200.396B

2

T-Mobile US, Inc.

TMUS

184.959B

-

Shopify Inc.

SHOP

179.099B

2

Texas Instruments Incorporated

TXN

173.863B

-

Morgan Stanley

MS

172.346B

-

Hermès International Société en commandite par actions

HESAY

157.646B

-

Sea Limited

SE

140.984B

1

Pinduoduo Inc.

PDD

138.789B

1

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

LOW

138.374B

2

Intuit Inc.

INTU

137.496B

-

BlackRock, Inc.

BLK

134.023B

-

The Charles Schwab Corporation

SCHW

133.082B

-

Charter Communications, Inc.

CHTR

132.996B

-

Sony Corporation

SONY

127.91B

2

Target Corporation

TGT

125.131B

2

Applied Materials, Inc.

AMAT

121.742B

-

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

EL

118.527B

-

Vale S.A.

VALE

115.404B

-

ServiceNow, Inc.

NOW

110.231B

4

Deere & Company

DE

107.963B

-

Square, Inc.

SQ

107.085B

4

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

AMD

105.622B

-

Zoom Video Communications, Inc.

ZM

105.133B

2

Moderna, Inc.

MRNA

104.267B

1

S&P Global Inc.

SPGI

99.135B

1

Anthem, Inc.

ANTM

96.986B

-

BYD Company Limited

BYDDY

95.661B

-

Zoetis Inc.

ZTS

95.067B

-

Snap Inc.

SNAP

95.042B

-

Lam Research Corporation

LRCX

87.103B

1

Micron Technology, Inc.

MU

86.593B

-

FedEx Corporation

FDX

78.562B

-

Adyen N.V.

ADYEY

78.359B

-

MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELI

75.201B

1

The Sherwin-Williams Company

SHW

74.232B

2

Capital One Financial Corporation

COF

72.396B

-

NIO Inc.

NIO

71.571B

1

Dell Technologies Inc.

DELL

71.512B

-

Moody's Corporation

MCO

70.153B

4

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation

EW

66.105B

-

Atlassian Corporation Plc

TEAM

64.856B

2

Twilio Inc.

TWLO

63.253B

2

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CRWD

56.295B

2

IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.

IDXX

56.065B

3

Twitter, Inc.

TWTR

54.329B

-

DocuSign, Inc.

DOCU

53.971B

1

Roku, Inc.

ROKU

53.754B

3

NXP Semiconductors N.V.

NXPI

53.608B

-

Lululemon Athletica Inc.

LULU

50.918B

2

Align Technology, Inc.

ALGN

49.199B

-

Veeva Systems Inc.

VEEV

47.851B

4

KLA Corporation

KLAC

46.559B

1

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

TROW

46.376B

-

MSCI Inc.

MSCI

46.144B

1

Match Group, Inc.

MTCH

45.021B

1

Pinterest, Inc.

PINS

44.599B

-

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

CMG

44.53B

2

Roblox Corporation

RBLX

44.037B

-

Carrier Global Corporation

CARR

43.013B

-

DexCom, Inc.

DXCM

42.688B

3

Synopsys, Inc.

SNPS

42.367B

1

Fortinet, Inc.

FTNT

41.858B

2

Palantir Technologies Inc.

PLTR

40.365B

-

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.

CDNS

38.275B

1

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

PANW

37.772B

-

Okta, Inc.

OKTA

36.361B

2

First Republic Bank

FRC

35.23B

-

The Trade Desk, Inc.

TTD

34.251B

2

KKR & Co. Inc.

KKR

34.22B

-

Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

MTD

33.416B

-

Peloton Interactive, Inc.

PTON

33.167B

1

Copart, Inc.

CPRT

33B

-

Chewy, Inc.

CHWY

32.191B

-

Datadog, Inc.

DDOG

31.911B

1

Cloudflare, Inc.

NET

31.892B

1

SVB Financial Group

SIVB

31.542B

-

Skyworks Solutions, Inc.

SWKS

31.447B

-

XPeng Inc.

XPEV

30.936B

-

Equifax Inc.

EFX

30.511B

-

Nasdaq, Inc.

NDAQ

30.423B

5

EPAM Systems, Inc.

EPAM

30.366B

2

Zscaler, Inc.

ZS

30.043B

1

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

ODFL

30.013B

1

Wayfair Inc.

W

29.876B

1

Keysight Technologies, Inc.

KEYS

28.842B

-

Garmin Ltd.

GRMN

28.651B

-

Arista Networks, Inc.

ANET

28.09B

-

CBRE Group, Inc.

CBRE

28.027B

-

Li Auto Inc.

LI

28.026B

-

Zebra Technologies Corporation

ZBRA

27.966B

-

West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.

WST

27.459B

-

Generac Holdings Inc.

GNRC

27.25B

1

Unity Software Inc.

U

27.034B

-

Seattle Genetics, Inc.

SGEN

26.127B

1

Zillow Group, Inc.

ZG

26.08B

5

HubSpot, Inc.

HUBS

25.733B

1

Carvana Co.

CVNA

25.198B

-

CDW Corporation

CDW

24.586B

-

RingCentral, Inc.

RNG

24.466B

1

Afterpay Limited

AFTPY

23.87B

-

Etsy, Inc.

ETSY

23.171B

1

Waters Corporation

WAT

22.969B

-

United Rentals, Inc.

URI

22.778B

-

Teladoc Health, Inc.

TDOC

22.593B

3

Enphase Energy, Inc.

ENPH

22.43B

1

Burlington Stores, Inc.

BURL

21.944B

-

Albemarle Corporation

ALB

21.69B

-

MongoDB, Inc.

MDB

21.623B

1

Horizon Therapeutics Public Limited Company

HZNP

21.304B

-

Teradyne, Inc.

TER

20.472B

2

Trimble Inc.

TRMB

20.313B

-

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated

TDY

20.311B

-

Tradeweb Markets Inc.

TW

19.895B

1

Futu Holdings Limited

FUTU

19.771B

1

Seagate Technology Holdings plc

STX

19.717B

-

Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.

CRL

19.204B

2

NovoCure Limited

NVCR

18.872B

-

Domino's Pizza, Inc.

DPZ

18.826B

1

Ubiquiti Inc.

UI

18.69B

5

10x Genomics, Inc.

TXG

18.671B

1

Pool Corporation

POOL

18.453B

1

StoneCo Ltd.

STNE

18.02B

1

DraftKings Inc.

DKNG

18.006B

1

Insulet Corporation

PODD

17.838B

-

NetApp, Inc.

NTAP

17.672B

-

NVR, Inc.

NVR

17.547B

-

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.

LYV

17.479B

-

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.

MPWR

17.364B

1

HEICO Corporation

HEI

17.201B

-

Bill.com Holdings, Inc.

BILL

16.778B

1

Dynatrace, Inc.

DT

16.514B

1

XPO Logistics, Inc.

XPO

16.16B

-

Zendesk, Inc.

ZEN

16.123B

1

NICE Ltd.

NICE

16.064B

3

Entegris, Inc.

ENTG

15.579B

-

ON Semiconductor Corporation

ON

15.5B

-

Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO

14.945B

4

Cognex Corporation

CGNX

14.877B

1

Masimo Corporation

MASI

14.63B

2

Signature Bank

SBNY

14.387B

-

RH

RH

14.043B

1

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD

13.015B

-

Graco Inc.

GGG

12.947B

-

Elastic N.V.

ESTC

12.737B

1

Avalara, Inc.

AVLR

12.594B

1

SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.

SEDG

12.537B

1

Quanta Services, Inc.

PWR

12.308B

-

IAC/InterActiveCorp

IAC

12.153B

4

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

WSM

11.864B

-

Five9, Inc.

FIVN

11.838B

2

Chegg, Inc.

CHGG

11.563B

1

The Boston Beer Company, Inc.

SAM

11.437B

2

Ozon Holdings PLC

OZON

11.246B

-

Axon Enterprise, Inc.

AXON

11.23B

-

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

FND

11.143B

-

Trex Company, Inc.

TREX

11.079B

1

Darling Ingredients Inc.

DAR

10.993B

-

McAfee Corp.

MCFE

10.975B

-

Repligen Corporation

RGEN

10.822B

1

Penn National Gaming, Inc.

PENN

10.762B

-

Pegasystems Inc.

PEGA

10.677B

2

Lightspeed POS Inc.

LSPD

10.622B

-

Morningstar, Inc.

MORN

10.609B

-

GFL Environmental Inc.

GFL

10.413B

-

Five Below, Inc.

FIVE

10.393B

-

Paylocity Holding Corporation

PCTY

10.339B

2

CRISPR Therapeutics AG

CRSP

10.209B

1

Cree, Inc.

CREE

10.19B

3

Intellia Therapeutics, Inc.

NTLA

9.983B

-

QuantumScape Corporation

QS

9.613B

-

Sunrun Inc.

RUN

9.607B

1

Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.

MRVI

9.595B

-

Syneos Health, Inc.

SYNH

9.115B

-

Globant S.A.

GLOB

8.996B

1

Manhattan Associates, Inc.

MANH

8.882B

1

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.

DKS

8.83B

-

Upstart Holdings, Inc.

UPST

8.697B

-

AutoNation, Inc.

AN

8.321B

-

FirstService Corporation

FSV

7.709B

-

Global-e Online Ltd.

GLBE

7.708B

-

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.

SPCE

7.644B

-

MasTec, Inc.

MTZ

7.545B

-

Fiverr International Ltd.

FVRR

7.52B

-

ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.

CHPT

7.453B

-

II-VI Incorporated

IIVI

7.384B

-

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.

SITE

7.38B

1

Fate Therapeutics, Inc.

FATE

7.213B

-

Lattice Semiconductor Corporation

LSCC

7.042B

-

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.

AMG

7.026B

-

Stifel Financial Corp.

SF

6.86B

-

Tetra Tech, Inc.

TTEK

6.708B

-

Freshpet, Inc.

FRPT

6.639B

-

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.

BJ

6.552B

1

Fox Factory Holding Corp.

FOXF

6.361B

2

BlackLine, Inc.

BL

6.352B

1

Upwork Inc.

UPWK

6.181B

-

Skillz Inc.

SKLZ

6.058B

-

Stamps.com Inc.

STMP

5.916B

1

MP Materials Corp.

MP

5.884B

-

Stitch Fix, Inc.

SFIX

5.875B

-

The Descartes Systems Group Inc

DSGX

5.819B

1

Redfin Corporation

RDFN

5.764B

1

ShockWave Medical, Inc.

SWAV

5.737B

-

Digital Turbine, Inc.

APPS

5.63B

1

Beam Therapeutics Inc.

BEAM

5.601B

-

Rapid7, Inc.

RPD

5.564B

-

Twist Bioscience Corporation

TWST

5.522B

-

Daqo New Energy Corp.

DQ

5.06B

1

Progyny, Inc.

PGNY

4.884B

-

Innovative Industrial Properties, Inc.

IIPR

4.879B

-

Power Integrations, Inc.

POWI

4.849B

1

eXp World Holdings, Inc.

EXPI

4.833B

-

Colliers International Group Inc.

CIGI

4.801B

-

Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

INSP

4.741B

1

Vir Biotechnology, Inc.

VIR

4.717B

-

Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

RETA

4.667B

-

Revolve Group, Inc.

RVLV

4.659B

-

SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc.

SAIL

4.311B

-

Trupanion, Inc.

TRUP

4.189B

-

Inari Medical, Inc.

NARI

4.186B

-

Sonos, Inc.

SONO

4.147B

-

Cerence Inc.

CRNC

4.097B

1

APi Group Corporation

APG

4.094B

-

CareDx, Inc

CDNA

4.064B

-

Cardlytics, Inc.

CDLX

4.052B

1

PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.

PFSI

3.959B

1

InMode Ltd.

INMD

3.914B

-

LGI Homes, Inc.

LGIH

3.907B

1

Overstock.com, Inc.

OSTK

3.713B

-

ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc.

SFBS

3.647B

-

Shutterstock, Inc.

SSTK

3.634B

-

fuboTV Inc.

FUBO

3.609B

-

SPS Commerce, Inc.

SPSC

3.454B

1

Fabrinet

FN

3.368B

-

Camping World Holdings, Inc.

CWH

3.342B

1

Stem, Inc.

STEM

3.322B

-

Walker & Dunlop, Inc.

WD

3.194B

-

Phreesia, Inc.

PHR

3.191B

-

The Lion Electric Company

LEV

2.876B

-

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd.

JKS

2.873B

-

Editas Medicine, Inc.

EDIT

2.848B

-

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

BCRX

2.808B

-

Riot Blockchain, Inc.

RIOT

2.708B

-

Health Catalyst, Inc.

HCAT

2.437B

-

Yalla Group Limited

YALA

2.343B

-

GrowGeneration Corp.

GRWG

2.341B

-

XPEL, Inc.

XPEL

2.325B

-

Fulgent Genetics, Inc.

FLGT

2.223B

-

Niu Technologies

NIU

2.197B

-

MicroVision, Inc.

MVIS

2.173B

-

Raven Industries, Inc.

RAVN

2.051B

-

BioLife Solutions, Inc.

BLFS

1.767B

-

Avid Technology, Inc.

AVID

1.728B

-

EHang Holdings Limited

EH

1.689B

-

Danimer Scientific, Inc.

DNMR

1.677B

-

Purple Innovation, Inc.

PRPL

1.667B

1

Porch Group, Inc.

PRCH

1.66B

-

PAR Technology Corporation

PAR

1.644B

-

Castle Biosciences, Inc.

CSTL

1.627B

-

TPI Composites, Inc.

TPIC

1.493B

-

Mission Produce, Inc.

AVO

1.387B

-

NeoGames S.A.

NGMS

1.317B

-

Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

ACLS

1.189B

1

AudioCodes Ltd.

AUDC

1.067B

1

Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc.

EOSE

999.614M

-

DMC Global Inc.

BOOM

960.12M

-

Mind Medicine (MindMed) Inc.

MNMD

951.892M

-

Semler Scientific, Inc.

SMLR

862.009M

-

CarParts.com, Inc.

PRTS

823.825M

-

CM Life Sciences, Inc.

CMLF

636.454M

-

Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment, Inc.

CSSE

607.662M

-

Enthusiast Gaming Holdings Inc.

EGLX

601.869M

-

Turtle Beach Corporation

HEAR

453.102M

-