It's been an especially crazy last couple of days, the latest in a crazy start to the year for the stock market. I mean, it's been so crazy, that the Fed actually felt sufficiently motivated to - get this - move rates.
Insanity. The whole thing kinda reminds me of this scene. (I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to draw the parallels.)
So, here's what I've done recently.
Sold Baidu.com (BIDU) at $282, for a 193% gain, 288% annualized
Bought more Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) at $17 (DCA'd to $20)
Sold Capstone Turbine (CPST) at $1.20, for a 25% gain, 28% annualized
Bought more Southern Copper (PCU) at $76 (DCA'd to $45)
Although the sells were of the triggered variety, there's a trend there: selling "speculative" stocks with no dividends, for "conservative" stocks with huge dividends.
(Hint: I'm liking dividend stocks in '08.)
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Stocks Of The Month: TNH, FWLT
"Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Bought: Sep @ $112.50
Sold: Nov @ $88.25 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $149.53 (33%)
I've made a huge mistake."
In order to avoid the even, uh, huger mistake of not buying an awesome stock in an en fuego sector with incredible fundamentals and a nice dividend, solely because I previously bought high and sold low on said stock, I picked up some TNH last week at $150.
I guess there's some saying about babies and bathwater, and how you're supposed to avoid throwing out one along with the other. I'd use it right now, if it weren't the most overquoted quote in the history of quoting.
I'll just say that it's probably not a good idea to sell great stocks in a bad market...because it's not a good idea to sell great stocks, ever.
Also, as suggested in part two of the 2007 recap, Geron (GERN) indeed dropped enough to trigger a sale, which allowed for the purchase of Foster Wheeler (FWLT) at $165. I needed an infrastructure stock in my portfolio, and I like FWLT's exposure to the global economy and to power generation. I am slightly afraid of its amazing run from a $9 stock in just a little over two years, but it is still just an $11.5 billion dollar company and should have room to grow further.
Bought: Sep @ $112.50
Sold: Nov @ $88.25 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $149.53 (33%)
I've made a huge mistake."
In order to avoid the even, uh, huger mistake of not buying an awesome stock in an en fuego sector with incredible fundamentals and a nice dividend, solely because I previously bought high and sold low on said stock, I picked up some TNH last week at $150.
I guess there's some saying about babies and bathwater, and how you're supposed to avoid throwing out one along with the other. I'd use it right now, if it weren't the most overquoted quote in the history of quoting.
I'll just say that it's probably not a good idea to sell great stocks in a bad market...because it's not a good idea to sell great stocks, ever.
Also, as suggested in part two of the 2007 recap, Geron (GERN) indeed dropped enough to trigger a sale, which allowed for the purchase of Foster Wheeler (FWLT) at $165. I needed an infrastructure stock in my portfolio, and I like FWLT's exposure to the global economy and to power generation. I am slightly afraid of its amazing run from a $9 stock in just a little over two years, but it is still just an $11.5 billion dollar company and should have room to grow further.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
2007 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns
So the market was down a bunch today. Alright, 2008! What an underperforming unpredictable and ulcer-inducing exciting market this promises to be!
Continuing from yesterday...
Let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2007's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Geron (GERN)
Bought: Oct @ $8.00
Year-closing price: $5.68 (-29%)
Dangerously close to triggering a sell. Hoping for election results, or revenues from one of those 879532748132746237014 patents, to kick in.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Bought: Nov @ $23.75
Year-closing price: $18.15 (-24%)
Strictly a dividend play. Should hopefully be DCA'ing soon.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Bought: Dec @ $222.09
Year-closing price: $215.05 (-3%)
No subprime exposure to be found here.
NVIDIA (NDVA)
Bought: Oct @ $35.00
Year-closing price: $34.02 (-3%)
A little (OK, a lot) late, but I'm committed to this one long-term.
ACE Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $60.57
Year-closing price: $61.78 (2%)
Sometimes boring is well enough.
MF Global (MF)
Bought: Dec @ $29.99
Year-closing price: $31.47 (5%)
A bet on volatile and voluminous markets in 2008 and beyond.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
Year-opening price: $34.52
Year-closing price: $36.27 (5%)
My other coal play, which hasn't quite panned out.
Tidewater (TDW)
Bought: Nov @ $51.30
Year-closing price: $54.86 (7%)
Certainly in the right sector; should be getting some more attention this year.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Bought: Apr, Jun @ $15.36
Year-closing price: $18.18 (18%)
A Fed rate cut bet that sorta worked.
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)
Bought: Nov @ $74.74
Year-closing price: $88.49 (18%)
Best fundamentals of any solar play I could find.
Apple (AAPL)
Bought: Sep @ $146.82
Year-closing price: $198.08 (35%)
iPhone sales are nice; Mac sales are nicer.
Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $460.48
Year-closing price: $691.48 (50%)
The world's best tech innovator. Looking forward to Android.
Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $31.85
Year-closing price: $48.00 (51%)
Own for the dividend, but will take the capital gains too.
Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $66.51
Year-closing price: $107.54 (62%)
Finally earned some recognition as one of North America's finest oil and natural gas companies.
Capstone Turbine (CPST)
Bought: Feb @ $0.96 (DCA'd)
Year-closing price: $1.63 (70%)
Thank you, Mayor Bloomberg!
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG)
Year-opening price: $20.75
Year-closing price: $38.60 (86%)
Two magic words: "strategic alternatives".
Nokia (NOK)
Year-opening price: $20.32
Year-closing price: $38.39 (89%)
After several sleepy years, is finally being valued as the world-class juggernaut that it is.
Southern Copper (PCU)
Year-opening price: $53.89
Year-closing price: $105.13 (95%)
Great commodity, great dividend yield; great stock.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $95.90
Year-closing price: $323.00 (237%)
It's better to be lucky than good. Here's an investing thesis: surgical robots are cool.
Baidu (BIDU)
Bought: Apr @ $96.50
Year-closing price: $389.80 (304%)
Again, better lucky than good. Happened to buy at near-year lows, and right before it took off. Still has a market cap 1/16th that of GOOG.
Continuing from yesterday...
Let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2007's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Geron (GERN)
Bought: Oct @ $8.00
Year-closing price: $5.68 (-29%)
Dangerously close to triggering a sell. Hoping for election results, or revenues from one of those 879532748132746237014 patents, to kick in.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Bought: Nov @ $23.75
Year-closing price: $18.15 (-24%)
Strictly a dividend play. Should hopefully be DCA'ing soon.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Bought: Dec @ $222.09
Year-closing price: $215.05 (-3%)
No subprime exposure to be found here.
NVIDIA (NDVA)
Bought: Oct @ $35.00
Year-closing price: $34.02 (-3%)
A little (OK, a lot) late, but I'm committed to this one long-term.
ACE Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $60.57
Year-closing price: $61.78 (2%)
Sometimes boring is well enough.
MF Global (MF)
Bought: Dec @ $29.99
Year-closing price: $31.47 (5%)
A bet on volatile and voluminous markets in 2008 and beyond.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
Year-opening price: $34.52
Year-closing price: $36.27 (5%)
My other coal play, which hasn't quite panned out.
Tidewater (TDW)
Bought: Nov @ $51.30
Year-closing price: $54.86 (7%)
Certainly in the right sector; should be getting some more attention this year.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Bought: Apr, Jun @ $15.36
Year-closing price: $18.18 (18%)
A Fed rate cut bet that sorta worked.
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)
Bought: Nov @ $74.74
Year-closing price: $88.49 (18%)
Best fundamentals of any solar play I could find.
Apple (AAPL)
Bought: Sep @ $146.82
Year-closing price: $198.08 (35%)
iPhone sales are nice; Mac sales are nicer.
Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $460.48
Year-closing price: $691.48 (50%)
The world's best tech innovator. Looking forward to Android.
Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $31.85
Year-closing price: $48.00 (51%)
Own for the dividend, but will take the capital gains too.
Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $66.51
Year-closing price: $107.54 (62%)
Finally earned some recognition as one of North America's finest oil and natural gas companies.
Capstone Turbine (CPST)
Bought: Feb @ $0.96 (DCA'd)
Year-closing price: $1.63 (70%)
Thank you, Mayor Bloomberg!
Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG)
Year-opening price: $20.75
Year-closing price: $38.60 (86%)
Two magic words: "strategic alternatives".
Nokia (NOK)
Year-opening price: $20.32
Year-closing price: $38.39 (89%)
After several sleepy years, is finally being valued as the world-class juggernaut that it is.
Southern Copper (PCU)
Year-opening price: $53.89
Year-closing price: $105.13 (95%)
Great commodity, great dividend yield; great stock.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $95.90
Year-closing price: $323.00 (237%)
It's better to be lucky than good. Here's an investing thesis: surgical robots are cool.
Baidu (BIDU)
Bought: Apr @ $96.50
Year-closing price: $389.80 (304%)
Again, better lucky than good. Happened to buy at near-year lows, and right before it took off. Still has a market cap 1/16th that of GOOG.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
2007 Stock Recap: The Departed
Happy New Year everyone! And what better way is there to celebrate than to analyze all the stocks I've owned throughout the year?
(None. There is no better way.)
Let's begin with a look at all the stocks I've sold, from best to worst - based solely on 2007's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH)
Bought: May @ $33.59
Sold: Nov @ $60.03 (79%)
Year-closing price: $50.64 (51%)
I heart China, I heart commodities. Easily my best exiting trade of the year.
PetroChina (PTR)
Year-opening price: $140.78
Sold: Dec @ $175.93 (25%)
Year-closing price: $175.47 (25%)
More Sino-commodity goodness.
St. Jude Medical (STJ)
Year-opening price: $36.56
Sold: Jul @ $42.97 (18%)
Year-closing price: $40.64 (11%)
Missed the highs ($48 in August), but still pretty good here.
Qwest (Q)
Year-opening price: $8.37
Sold: Jul @ $8.66 (4%)
Year-closing price: $7.01 (-16%)
The turnaround never happened. Or I was late.
General Motors (GM)
Year-opening price: $30.72
Sold: May @ $31.51 (3%)
Year-closing price: $24.89 (-19%)
Yes, profits can be made by investing in an American auto maker. Although I missed the top by a wide margin ($43 in October).
Under Armour (UA)
Bought: Mar @ $46.52
Sold: Nov @ $48.00 (3%)
Year-closing price: $43.67 (-6%)
UA, as it turns out, is not the next Nike. Yet.
Fuel-Tech (FTEK)
Year-opening price: $24.64
Sold: Sep @ $22.92 (-7%)
Year-closing price: $22.65 (-8%)
A very volatile stock; missed the before and after highs by quite a bit ($38 in June, $34 in October).
Genentech (DNA)
Bought: Jan @ $81.60
Sold: May @ $77.58 (-5%)
Year-closing price: $67.07 (-18%)
Was I early? Analysts seem to think DNA is cheap. I think it's still too big ($71B market cap).
K-Swiss (KSWS)
Year-opening price: $30.74
Sold: Feb @ $28.81 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $18.10 (-41%)
Should have sold earlier (or never bought in the first place).
Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Year-opening price: $167.93
Sold: Jul @ $152.58 (-9%)
Year-closing price: $102.05 (-39%)
A horrible retailer, with housing exposure to boot. Yuck. Did well to get out where I did.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Year-opening price: $66.02
Sold: Mar @ $62.30 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $66.70 (1%)
Pretty much the dead-money I figured it for.
AmeriCredit (ACF)
Year-opening price: $25.17
Sold: Mar @ $20.89 (-17%)
Year-closing price: $12.79 (-49%)
Subprime auto financing? No thanks! A semi-smart call here.
Infosys (INFY)
Year-opening price: $54.56
Sold: Sep @ $46.92 (-14%)
Year-closing price: $45.36 (-17%)
Should have gotten out earlier, and hasn't done much since I sold it either.
lululemon athletica (LULU)
Bought: Oct @ $46.00
Sold: Nov @ $40.00 (-13%)
Year-closing price: $47.37 (3%)
Was scared out after a bubble-ish rise and fall from $60 in one months time. May be revisited.
First Marblehead (FMD)
Year-opening price: $54.65
Sold: Apr @ $35.30 (-35%)
Year-closing price: $15.30 (-72%)
Dodged a bullet here - thanks, one-third rule! Goldman Sachs sees value here, seems to be in a good business long-term (student loans)...but I'm scared of it.
Rite Aid (RAD)
Year-opening price: $5.44
Sold: Oct @ $4.04 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $2.79 (-49%)
Hit its high of $6.73 in June. Held on too long, but glad to get out when I did.
NYSE Euronext (NYX)
Bought: Feb, Mar @ $92.33 (DCA'd)
Sold: Sep @ $71.59 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $87.77 (-5%)
An absolutely lousy call, selling right before exchanges were bid up in anticipation of global consolidation.
RMK Advantage Income Fund (RMA)
Bought: Sep, Oct @ $7.95 (DCA'd)
Sold: Nov @ $5.13 (-35%)
Year-closing price: $4.51 (-43%)
A losing bet on a recovery from subprime.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Year-opening price: $29.02
Sold: Mar @ $19.16 (-34%)
Year-closing price: $23.64 (-19%)
Should have sold on Jan. 1 - and ended up selling near the year's lows. Oops.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Bought: Sep @ $112.50
Sold: Nov @ $88.25 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $149.53 (33%)
I've made a huge mistake.
Delphi (DPHIQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $3.82
Sold: Oct @ $0.395 (-90%)
Year-closing price: $0.15 (-96%)
No further comment.
(None. There is no better way.)
Let's begin with a look at all the stocks I've sold, from best to worst - based solely on 2007's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH)
Bought: May @ $33.59
Sold: Nov @ $60.03 (79%)
Year-closing price: $50.64 (51%)
I heart China, I heart commodities. Easily my best exiting trade of the year.
PetroChina (PTR)
Year-opening price: $140.78
Sold: Dec @ $175.93 (25%)
Year-closing price: $175.47 (25%)
More Sino-commodity goodness.
St. Jude Medical (STJ)
Year-opening price: $36.56
Sold: Jul @ $42.97 (18%)
Year-closing price: $40.64 (11%)
Missed the highs ($48 in August), but still pretty good here.
Qwest (Q)
Year-opening price: $8.37
Sold: Jul @ $8.66 (4%)
Year-closing price: $7.01 (-16%)
The turnaround never happened. Or I was late.
General Motors (GM)
Year-opening price: $30.72
Sold: May @ $31.51 (3%)
Year-closing price: $24.89 (-19%)
Yes, profits can be made by investing in an American auto maker. Although I missed the top by a wide margin ($43 in October).
Under Armour (UA)
Bought: Mar @ $46.52
Sold: Nov @ $48.00 (3%)
Year-closing price: $43.67 (-6%)
UA, as it turns out, is not the next Nike. Yet.
Fuel-Tech (FTEK)
Year-opening price: $24.64
Sold: Sep @ $22.92 (-7%)
Year-closing price: $22.65 (-8%)
A very volatile stock; missed the before and after highs by quite a bit ($38 in June, $34 in October).
Genentech (DNA)
Bought: Jan @ $81.60
Sold: May @ $77.58 (-5%)
Year-closing price: $67.07 (-18%)
Was I early? Analysts seem to think DNA is cheap. I think it's still too big ($71B market cap).
K-Swiss (KSWS)
Year-opening price: $30.74
Sold: Feb @ $28.81 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $18.10 (-41%)
Should have sold earlier (or never bought in the first place).
Sears Holdings (SHLD)
Year-opening price: $167.93
Sold: Jul @ $152.58 (-9%)
Year-closing price: $102.05 (-39%)
A horrible retailer, with housing exposure to boot. Yuck. Did well to get out where I did.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Year-opening price: $66.02
Sold: Mar @ $62.30 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $66.70 (1%)
Pretty much the dead-money I figured it for.
AmeriCredit (ACF)
Year-opening price: $25.17
Sold: Mar @ $20.89 (-17%)
Year-closing price: $12.79 (-49%)
Subprime auto financing? No thanks! A semi-smart call here.
Infosys (INFY)
Year-opening price: $54.56
Sold: Sep @ $46.92 (-14%)
Year-closing price: $45.36 (-17%)
Should have gotten out earlier, and hasn't done much since I sold it either.
lululemon athletica (LULU)
Bought: Oct @ $46.00
Sold: Nov @ $40.00 (-13%)
Year-closing price: $47.37 (3%)
Was scared out after a bubble-ish rise and fall from $60 in one months time. May be revisited.
First Marblehead (FMD)
Year-opening price: $54.65
Sold: Apr @ $35.30 (-35%)
Year-closing price: $15.30 (-72%)
Dodged a bullet here - thanks, one-third rule! Goldman Sachs sees value here, seems to be in a good business long-term (student loans)...but I'm scared of it.
Rite Aid (RAD)
Year-opening price: $5.44
Sold: Oct @ $4.04 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $2.79 (-49%)
Hit its high of $6.73 in June. Held on too long, but glad to get out when I did.
NYSE Euronext (NYX)
Bought: Feb, Mar @ $92.33 (DCA'd)
Sold: Sep @ $71.59 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $87.77 (-5%)
An absolutely lousy call, selling right before exchanges were bid up in anticipation of global consolidation.
RMK Advantage Income Fund (RMA)
Bought: Sep, Oct @ $7.95 (DCA'd)
Sold: Nov @ $5.13 (-35%)
Year-closing price: $4.51 (-43%)
A losing bet on a recovery from subprime.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Year-opening price: $29.02
Sold: Mar @ $19.16 (-34%)
Year-closing price: $23.64 (-19%)
Should have sold on Jan. 1 - and ended up selling near the year's lows. Oops.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Bought: Sep @ $112.50
Sold: Nov @ $88.25 (-22%)
Year-closing price: $149.53 (33%)
I've made a huge mistake.
Delphi (DPHIQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $3.82
Sold: Oct @ $0.395 (-90%)
Year-closing price: $0.15 (-96%)
No further comment.
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