This month's stock is down with the clown.
Continuing with "big and boring", McDonald's (MCD) is the world's cafeteria, with nearly 32,000 restaurants in 118 countries. Their long-term chart is a thing of beauty; a mostly uninterrupted march from the lower-left to the upper-right. They pay a very safe dividend of 3.5%. And most importantly, they serve the tastiest french fries money can buy.
As a footnote, Frontline (FRO) has been sold in a 30+ day (i.e. non-"wash sale") transaction, and will return to the portfolio next month.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 12.54%
Apple (AAPL) 10.90%
Google (GOOG) 9.68%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.74%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 6.45%
Tesoro (TSO) 5.59%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.28%
American Software 4.41%
Blackstone (BX) 4.20%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.40%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.31%
Biovail (BVF) 3.05%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.04%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.03%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.94%
Apache (APA) 2.89%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.88%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.61%
DuPont (DD) 2.60%
Monday, November 16, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Stocks Of The Month: GNI, VOD
First, a sale to report: Atlas Resources was bought out by Atlas America, thereby forming Atlas Energy (ATLS). As part of this merger, ATLS will not be issuing dividend payments, and therefore no longer fit my investing strategy. It was sold for a nice capital gain of 124% (193% annualized), and funds this month's two purchases.
Keeping in the spirit of Atlas Resources, Great Northern Iron (GNI) is a small cap ($138 million) commodities stock, with a large dividend (7.7%). Its P/E, margins, and cash flows are phenomenal, and the company has zero debt.
Continuing last month's "big and boring" trend, Vodafone (VOD) is probably best known in the U.S. as the better half of Verizon Wireless, but also provides wireless services throughout the world. Of course, being a large telco means Vodafone has massive, stable cash flows to fund a generous 7.1% dividend.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 12.30%
Apple (AAPL) 10.51%
Google (GOOG) 9.28%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 7.27%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.74%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.44%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.66%
Frontline (FRO) 4.55%
Blackstone (BX) 4.39%
American Software 4.30%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.62%
Biovail (BVF) 3.12%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.12%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.11%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.07%
Apache (APA) 3.00%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.95%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.91%
DuPont (DD) 2.52%
Keeping in the spirit of Atlas Resources, Great Northern Iron (GNI) is a small cap ($138 million) commodities stock, with a large dividend (7.7%). Its P/E, margins, and cash flows are phenomenal, and the company has zero debt.
Continuing last month's "big and boring" trend, Vodafone (VOD) is probably best known in the U.S. as the better half of Verizon Wireless, but also provides wireless services throughout the world. Of course, being a large telco means Vodafone has massive, stable cash flows to fund a generous 7.1% dividend.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 12.30%
Apple (AAPL) 10.51%
Google (GOOG) 9.28%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 7.27%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.74%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.44%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.66%
Frontline (FRO) 4.55%
Blackstone (BX) 4.39%
American Software 4.30%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.62%
Biovail (BVF) 3.12%
Vodafone (VOD) 3.12%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 3.11%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.07%
Apache (APA) 3.00%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 2.95%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.91%
DuPont (DD) 2.52%
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Stock Of The Month: DD
If things go according to plan, this month's pick will start a new personal philosophy that "big and boring" is OK.
I've had a bit of a bias against large-cap stocks, because of the diseconomies of scale for mature companies in mature markets. But while the opportunities for capital gains are limited, large-caps are a great source for stable dividend payments - the kind of stock that can be bought and held for a long time.
DuPont (DD), or more properly, E. I. du Pont de Nemours, is a $31 billion, 207-year-old, diversified chemicals company, serving any and all industries with its vast portfolio of products. As the economy improves, DuPont will be a beneficiary. DD also has a dividend yield of 5%, and a dependable, positive cash flow to back it up.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 11.30%
Apple (AAPL) 10.33%
Google (GOOG) 8.83%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 7.51%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.96%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.57%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.76%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.89%
American Software 4.52%
Blackstone (BX) 4.36%
Frontline (FRO) 4.31%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.12%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.11%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.31%
Biovail (BVF) 3.30%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.11%
Apache (APA) 2.93%
DuPont (DD) 2.71%
I've had a bit of a bias against large-cap stocks, because of the diseconomies of scale for mature companies in mature markets. But while the opportunities for capital gains are limited, large-caps are a great source for stable dividend payments - the kind of stock that can be bought and held for a long time.
DuPont (DD), or more properly, E. I. du Pont de Nemours, is a $31 billion, 207-year-old, diversified chemicals company, serving any and all industries with its vast portfolio of products. As the economy improves, DuPont will be a beneficiary. DD also has a dividend yield of 5%, and a dependable, positive cash flow to back it up.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 11.30%
Apple (AAPL) 10.33%
Google (GOOG) 8.83%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 7.51%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.96%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.57%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.76%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.89%
American Software 4.52%
Blackstone (BX) 4.36%
Frontline (FRO) 4.31%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.12%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.11%
Tidewater (TDW) 3.31%
Biovail (BVF) 3.30%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.11%
Apache (APA) 2.93%
DuPont (DD) 2.71%
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Stock Of The Month: BX
One of "The Distressed" has graduated to the big leagues.
This past February, I described Blackstone (BX) as "the weasels that sold high on the hedge fund craze". Those same weasels managed to double their stock's value in the past 5 months. They also declared their 13% dividend yield to be safe for this year. Aside from that, investors can only trust that Blackstone knows more than the general market, and can execute more effectively than the competition.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Apple (AAPL) 10.17%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.68%
Google (GOOG) 9.66%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 8.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 8.46%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.25%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.07%
American Software 5.23%
Frontline (FRO) 4.79%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.18%
Biovail (BVF) 4.08%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.00%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.69%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.59%
Blackstone (BX) 3.54%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.50%
Apache (APA) 2.77%
This past February, I described Blackstone (BX) as "the weasels that sold high on the hedge fund craze". Those same weasels managed to double their stock's value in the past 5 months. They also declared their 13% dividend yield to be safe for this year. Aside from that, investors can only trust that Blackstone knows more than the general market, and can execute more effectively than the competition.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Apple (AAPL) 10.17%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.68%
Google (GOOG) 9.66%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 8.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 8.46%
Tesoro (TSO) 6.25%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.07%
American Software 5.23%
Frontline (FRO) 4.79%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.18%
Biovail (BVF) 4.08%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.00%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.69%
The Distressed (AIG, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 3.59%
Blackstone (BX) 3.54%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.50%
Apache (APA) 2.77%
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Stock Of The Month: PDLI
For the second time in three months, I've selected a pharma stock...sort of.
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDLI) is somewhat similar to last month's pick, Cherokee, in that it manages a portfolio of licenses, patents and royalties. Its biggest sources of income are from Avastin (cancer), Tysabri (multiple sclerosis), and Synagis (respiratory virus). PDL does not manufacture or market these drugs, nor will it be investing in the development of new drugs, leading to steady cash flows and outstanding margins - and the ability to fund a 12% dividend.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 10.80%
Apple (AAPL) 9.19%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 9.18%
Google (GOOG) 9.07%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 8.96%
Tesoro (TSO) 7.63%
Frontline (FRO) 5.95%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.90%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.94%
American Software 4.87%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.69%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.28%
Biovail (BVF) 3.60%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.50%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.41%
Apache (APA) 3.12%
PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDLI) is somewhat similar to last month's pick, Cherokee, in that it manages a portfolio of licenses, patents and royalties. Its biggest sources of income are from Avastin (cancer), Tysabri (multiple sclerosis), and Synagis (respiratory virus). PDL does not manufacture or market these drugs, nor will it be investing in the development of new drugs, leading to steady cash flows and outstanding margins - and the ability to fund a 12% dividend.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Southern Copper (PCU) 10.80%
Apple (AAPL) 9.19%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 9.18%
Google (GOOG) 9.07%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 8.96%
Tesoro (TSO) 7.63%
Frontline (FRO) 5.95%
Ace Limited (ACE) 5.90%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.94%
American Software 4.87%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.69%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.28%
Biovail (BVF) 3.60%
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 3.50%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.41%
Apache (APA) 3.12%
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Stock Of The Month: CHKE
This month's choice is a stock that I've had my eye on for years, but never gotten around to buying - until now.
Cherokee (CHKE) is a marketer and licensor of fashion brands and trademarks. Their primary licensing agreement is an exclusive deal in the U.S. with Target. Predictably, there is little overhead associated with this business model - leading to incredible margins, return on assets, and return on equity - which in turn allows for no debt, positive cash flow, and a healthy 10% dividend yield.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 10.96%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 10.30%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.59%
Google (GOOG) 9.17%
Apple (AAPL) 9.14%
Tesoro (TSO) 9.09%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.02%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 5.76%
Frontline (FRO) 5.68%
American Software 4.96%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.25%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.18%
Biovail (BVF) 3.36%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.36%
Apache (APA) 3.28%
Cherokee (CHKE) is a marketer and licensor of fashion brands and trademarks. Their primary licensing agreement is an exclusive deal in the U.S. with Target. Predictably, there is little overhead associated with this business model - leading to incredible margins, return on assets, and return on equity - which in turn allows for no debt, positive cash flow, and a healthy 10% dividend yield.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 10.96%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 10.30%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.59%
Google (GOOG) 9.17%
Apple (AAPL) 9.14%
Tesoro (TSO) 9.09%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.02%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 5.76%
Frontline (FRO) 5.68%
American Software 4.96%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.25%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.18%
Biovail (BVF) 3.36%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.36%
Apache (APA) 3.28%
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Stock Of The Month: BVF
Before this month's choice, I had no pharmaceutical stocks as part of my holdings. This is because these companies' fortunes are largely tied to the "pipeline" of drugs slated to come to market in future years - an extra layer of speculation which, for the most part, I'd rather not deal with.
Biovail (BVF), however, buffers this uncertainty with my favorite (relative) comfort: a large dividend yield (14.0%). It also has outstanding margins, return on assets/equity, positive cash flows, and no debt, all at a low 8.8 forward P/E. Its market cap of $1.7B would easily be absorbed by a larger, cash-rich, pipeline-starved pharma company, should one become interested.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 14.03%
Southern Copper (PCU) 10.17%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 10.05%
Google (GOOG) 9.52%
Apple (AAPL) 9.38%
Tesoro (TSO) 9.15%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.94%
American Software 6.15%
Frontline (FRO) 4.87%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.68%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.19%
Biovail (BVF) 3.63%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 3.15%
Apache (APA) 3.00%
Biovail (BVF), however, buffers this uncertainty with my favorite (relative) comfort: a large dividend yield (14.0%). It also has outstanding margins, return on assets/equity, positive cash flows, and no debt, all at a low 8.8 forward P/E. Its market cap of $1.7B would easily be absorbed by a larger, cash-rich, pipeline-starved pharma company, should one become interested.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 14.03%
Southern Copper (PCU) 10.17%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 10.05%
Google (GOOG) 9.52%
Apple (AAPL) 9.38%
Tesoro (TSO) 9.15%
Ace Limited (ACE) 6.94%
American Software 6.15%
Frontline (FRO) 4.87%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.68%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.19%
Biovail (BVF) 3.63%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 3.15%
Apache (APA) 3.00%
Friday, March 13, 2009
Capitulation: This Time, It's For Real
March 12th, 2009.
Bernie Madoff pleads guilty and faces 150 years in prison.
Jim Cramer willingly submits to his destruction from Jon Stewart and faces an indefinite future of irrelevancy.
Meanwhile the market is up 11% in just 3 days.
Capitulation: This time, it's for real.
DISCLAIMER: I've previously predicted stock market capitulation in March 2008 and August 2007...and been dead wrong. The good news is that I'm not a professional fraudster nor a loud-mouthed TV personality, so the consequence of being dead wrong is merely losing significant sums of my own money. The bad news is fundamentally, I'm no more credible than these two clowns, and shouldn't be listened to by anyone. Third time a charm?
Bernie Madoff pleads guilty and faces 150 years in prison.
Jim Cramer willingly submits to his destruction from Jon Stewart and faces an indefinite future of irrelevancy.
Meanwhile the market is up 11% in just 3 days.
Capitulation: This time, it's for real.
DISCLAIMER: I've previously predicted stock market capitulation in March 2008 and August 2007...and been dead wrong. The good news is that I'm not a professional fraudster nor a loud-mouthed TV personality, so the consequence of being dead wrong is merely losing significant sums of my own money. The bad news is fundamentally, I'm no more credible than these two clowns, and shouldn't be listened to by anyone. Third time a charm?
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Stock Of The Month: AMSWA
American Software (AMSWA) is a developer of supply chain management and enterprise resource planning software, applicable across a wide variety of industries. Their business should get better as the broader economy turns healthier. They are a microcap at just $86 million, yet have $60 million in cash and no debt on their balance sheet. AMSWA is also very inexpensive, trading at just 11x forward P/E. But the real reason to own them is (not surprisely - for me) the huge dividend yield of 9.4%.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 15.38%
Google (GOOG) 11.14%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.07%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.82%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 9.75%
Apple (AAPL) 9.51%
Ace Limited (ACE) 7.14%
Frontline (FRO) 5.69%
American Software 4.71%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.40%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.03%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 3.53%
Apache (APA) 3.10%
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 15.38%
Google (GOOG) 11.14%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.07%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.82%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 9.75%
Apple (AAPL) 9.51%
Ace Limited (ACE) 7.14%
Frontline (FRO) 5.69%
American Software 4.71%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.40%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.03%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 3.53%
Apache (APA) 3.10%
Monday, February 2, 2009
Stocks Of The Month: The Distressed
A few days ago, I had a crazy idea.
Instead of picking stocks I like and losing money, why not pick stocks I don't like - even hate - and lose money?
So for this month, I chose 10 of the worst stocks I could possibly think of, and bought 1/10th the amount of shares I usually would for each one. If one or two go belly-up, no big deal. Heck, one of them dropped over 10% today, and I can laugh it off. This is a good thing...I think.
Here they are - from now on, to be known collectively as "The Distressed" (percentages are from 52-week high):
American International Group (AIG, -98%). The company that made "derivatives" a curse word. If they are lucky, they will return to being a big, boring insurance company.
Blackstone (BX, -80%). The weasels that sold high on the hedge fund craze by going public.
Citigroup (C, -88%). An ill-conceived, poorly managed financial conglomerate. Fire the management and break up the company, and there's value.
Ford (F, -79%). Um...they're an American car company.
Fannie Mae (FNM, -98%). Could go bankrupt. Or could solve the mortgage crisis.
General Motors (GM, -90%) They're like Ford, only much crappier.
Jones Soda (JSDA, -94%). Makes delicious pure cane sugar pop. Kind of a luxury discretionary item these days.
Motorola (MOT, -64%). Poor management and execution, decent R&D.
Wells Fargo (WFC, -57%). Probably the healthiest bank in America. 7% dividend yield.
YRC Worldwide (YRCW, -87%). Transports lead the market, right?
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 14.41%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 14.13%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.58%
Google (GOOG) 10.02%
Apple (AAPL) 8.46%
Southern Copper (PCU) 8.41%
Frontline (FRO) 8.36%
Ace Limited (ACE) 7.80%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.75%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.16%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.07%
Apache (APA) 3.71%
Instead of picking stocks I like and losing money, why not pick stocks I don't like - even hate - and lose money?
So for this month, I chose 10 of the worst stocks I could possibly think of, and bought 1/10th the amount of shares I usually would for each one. If one or two go belly-up, no big deal. Heck, one of them dropped over 10% today, and I can laugh it off. This is a good thing...I think.
Here they are - from now on, to be known collectively as "The Distressed" (percentages are from 52-week high):
American International Group (AIG, -98%). The company that made "derivatives" a curse word. If they are lucky, they will return to being a big, boring insurance company.
Blackstone (BX, -80%). The weasels that sold high on the hedge fund craze by going public.
Citigroup (C, -88%). An ill-conceived, poorly managed financial conglomerate. Fire the management and break up the company, and there's value.
Ford (F, -79%). Um...they're an American car company.
Fannie Mae (FNM, -98%). Could go bankrupt. Or could solve the mortgage crisis.
General Motors (GM, -90%) They're like Ford, only much crappier.
Jones Soda (JSDA, -94%). Makes delicious pure cane sugar pop. Kind of a luxury discretionary item these days.
Motorola (MOT, -64%). Poor management and execution, decent R&D.
Wells Fargo (WFC, -57%). Probably the healthiest bank in America. 7% dividend yield.
YRC Worldwide (YRCW, -87%). Transports lead the market, right?
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 14.41%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 14.13%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.58%
Google (GOOG) 10.02%
Apple (AAPL) 8.46%
Southern Copper (PCU) 8.41%
Frontline (FRO) 8.36%
Ace Limited (ACE) 7.80%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.75%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.16%
The Distressed (AIG, BX, C, F, FNM, GM, JSDA, MOT, WFC, YRCW) 4.07%
Apache (APA) 3.71%
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Stock Of The Month: ATN
The Stock Of The Month is back for 2009! Unlike the last couple months of 2008, when most everything was as appealing as toxic waste, it's relatively easy to find interesting stocks these days. Indeed, I have an entire watch list of stocks that I can't wait to buy (if I only had, you know, the money to buy them).
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) is a 17% dividend yielder, backed by oil and natural gas assets throughout the eastern U.S. Even though it has a payout ratio of 115% (generally not a good thing), Atlas, in its short history as a publicly-traded company, has steadily increased its dividend payments quarter after quarter. Even if they do have to slash their dividend, it will still be sufficiently large.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 14.46%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 13.30%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.56%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.80%
Frontline (FRO) 9.61%
Ace Limited (ACE) 9.20%
Google (GOOG) 9.02%
Apple (AAPL) 7.79%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.64%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.14%
Apache (APA) 3.84%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) is a 17% dividend yielder, backed by oil and natural gas assets throughout the eastern U.S. Even though it has a payout ratio of 115% (generally not a good thing), Atlas, in its short history as a publicly-traded company, has steadily increased its dividend payments quarter after quarter. Even if they do have to slash their dividend, it will still be sufficiently large.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 14.46%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 13.30%
Tesoro (TSO) 11.56%
Southern Copper (PCU) 9.80%
Frontline (FRO) 9.61%
Ace Limited (ACE) 9.20%
Google (GOOG) 9.02%
Apple (AAPL) 7.79%
Tidewater (TDW) 4.64%
Atlas Energy Resources (ATN) 4.14%
Apache (APA) 3.84%
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Stock Recap 2008: The Ongoing Concerns
So far, so good for the stock market in 2009 - FIRED UP! READY TO GO! YES WE CAN!!
(Let's hope the exuberance isn't irrational.)
I now present to you the stocks that are the least worst of the awful lot otherwise known as "my 2008 portfolio". The stocks I was too lazy to sell. The stocks that I just couldn't sell, because I have to own something, right?
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2008's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $198.08
Bought more: Mar @ $121.98, Oct @ $111.98
Year-closing price: $85.35 (-57%)
The great long-term growth story hope, part 1. Steve Jobs' short-term health concerns might finally be resolved, though.
Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $691.48
Bought more: Feb @ $519.54, Oct @ $411.15
Year-closing price: $307.65 (-56%)
The great long-term growth story hope, part 2. Android, save this stock please!
Southern Copper (PCU)
Year-opening price: $32.43
Bought more: Jan @ $37.95, Aug @ $23.96
Year-closing price: $16.06 (-51%)
If I sold in April and bought back now, would be much better off. But this is a dividend stock.
Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $106.80
Year-closing price: $74.53 (-30%)
Showing signs of life recently.
Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $41.05
Bought more: Aug @ $57.92, Nov @ $36.95
Year-closing price: $29.61 (-28%)
Two poorly-timed purchases there.
Tidewater (TDW)
Year-opening price: $53.89
Year-closing price: $40.27 (-25%)
Yawn.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Bought: Jan @ $150.00, Mar @ $119.21, Aug @ $101.99
Year-closing price: $94.25 (-19%)
A falling knife situation, but I like this stock a lot going forward (duh).
Tesoro (TSO)
Bought: Apr @ $26.29, Jul @ $16.59, Nov @ $10.05
Year-closing price: $13.17 (-18%)
I hear gasoline prices are making a comeback!
ACE Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $60.82
Bought more: Jul @ $53.74
Year-closing price: $52.92 (-13%)
The most pleasantly boring stock I own.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $15.72
Bought more: Jan @ $17.00
Year-closing price: $16.60 (6%)
Yes, I have an incumbent winner stock this year.
(Let's hope the exuberance isn't irrational.)
I now present to you the stocks that are the least worst of the awful lot otherwise known as "my 2008 portfolio". The stocks I was too lazy to sell. The stocks that I just couldn't sell, because I have to own something, right?
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2008's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $198.08
Bought more: Mar @ $121.98, Oct @ $111.98
Year-closing price: $85.35 (-57%)
The great long-term growth story hope, part 1. Steve Jobs' short-term health concerns might finally be resolved, though.
Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $691.48
Bought more: Feb @ $519.54, Oct @ $411.15
Year-closing price: $307.65 (-56%)
The great long-term growth story hope, part 2. Android, save this stock please!
Southern Copper (PCU)
Year-opening price: $32.43
Bought more: Jan @ $37.95, Aug @ $23.96
Year-closing price: $16.06 (-51%)
If I sold in April and bought back now, would be much better off. But this is a dividend stock.
Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $106.80
Year-closing price: $74.53 (-30%)
Showing signs of life recently.
Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $41.05
Bought more: Aug @ $57.92, Nov @ $36.95
Year-closing price: $29.61 (-28%)
Two poorly-timed purchases there.
Tidewater (TDW)
Year-opening price: $53.89
Year-closing price: $40.27 (-25%)
Yawn.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Bought: Jan @ $150.00, Mar @ $119.21, Aug @ $101.99
Year-closing price: $94.25 (-19%)
A falling knife situation, but I like this stock a lot going forward (duh).
Tesoro (TSO)
Bought: Apr @ $26.29, Jul @ $16.59, Nov @ $10.05
Year-closing price: $13.17 (-18%)
I hear gasoline prices are making a comeback!
ACE Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $60.82
Bought more: Jul @ $53.74
Year-closing price: $52.92 (-13%)
The most pleasantly boring stock I own.
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $15.72
Bought more: Jan @ $17.00
Year-closing price: $16.60 (6%)
Yes, I have an incumbent winner stock this year.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
2008 Stock Recap: The Departed
Is anybody out there feeling irrationally and unequivocally optimistic about 2009 right now? Hey, me too. But first, we have to give 2008 it's proper due.
In 2008, it wasn't whether you lost money or not, it was how much money you lost. So I'm here today to bury last year; through the painstaking detailing of said losses of money, accompanied with snarky remarks for each wretched ticker symbol. (I'm not bitter.)
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2008's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Fording Coal (FDG)
Year-opening price: $37.51
Sold: Jul @ $88.53 (136%)
Stock-closing price: $93.71 (150%)
In what seems like eons ago but was actually last summer, commodity stocks had a huge bull run. Teck Cominco (TCK) decided to take out Fording near the top, and I decided to get out. Thank you, Teck Cominco - you gave me my only big winner of the year.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
Year-opening price: $34.02
Sold: Apr @ $37.00 (9%)
Year-closing price: $26.88 (-21%)
Another, yet minor, coal stock victory. Why coal? I don't know.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Year-opening price: $15.91
Sold: Mar @ $15.91 (0%)
Year-closing price: $15.87 (0%)
Hey, I didn't lose money here. Good job. For what it's worth, I still think Annaly is the best real estate stock out there (for those of you that really want to be in real estate).
Geron (GERN)
Year-opening price: $5.68
Sold: Jan @ $5.46 (-4%)
Year-closing price: $4.67 (-18%)
Lasted exactly 3 days into 2008. Can't say I regret selling it.
Nokia (NOK)
Year-opening price: $37.38
Sold: Apr @ $32.29 (-14%)
Year-closing price: $15.60 (-58%)
Should have been another one of my many January trades. Still not bad work done here.
Capstone Turbine (CPST)
Year-opening price: $1.63
Sold: Jan @ $1.20 (-26%)
Bought: Apr @ $2.65
Sold: Aug @ $2.35 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $0.84 (-48%)
It's kind of hard to follow the above, but I'll sum it up as: I bought when I should have been selling, and sold when I should have been buying. Except in August, when I did the right thing and gave up altogether.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $323.00
Sold: Jan @ $237.41 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $126.99 (-61%)
Surgical robot stocks 1, me 0.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
Bought: Jan @ $69.76, Mar @ $59.15
Sold: Aug @ $50.71 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $23.38 (-66%)
Probably a year early on the infrastructure play - and probably the wrong company too.
Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $389.90
Sold: Jan @ $282.37 (-28%)
Year-closing price: $130.57 (-67%)
The Chinese Google had an even worse year than the American Google.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID)
Bought: Apr @ $38.42
Sold: Sep @ $23.78 (-38%)
Year-closing price: $12.81 (-67%)
Too late on the steel trade.
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)
Year-opening price: $88.49
Sold: Jul @ $55.07 (-38%)
Year-closing price: $14.28 (-84%)
No sunshine here.
Nintendo (NTDOY.PK)
Bought: Aug @ $59.32
Sold: Oct @ $35.01 (-41%)
Year-closing price: $47.74 (-20%)
Two really, really bad trades on my part. Wii + DS = profits.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Year-opening price: $213.21
Bought more: Mar @ $144.61
Sold: Sep @ $118.89 (-44%)
Year-closing price: $84.39 (-60%)
Ladies and gentlemen: the world's finest investment bank, Goldman Sachs!
American Capital, Ltd. (ACAS)
Bought: Jan @ $32.99
Sold: Jul @ $17.00 (-48%)
Year-closing price: $3.24 (-90%)
Taught me the lesson of knowing the underlying assets that pay the dividend. (Hint: ACAS doesn't have good underlying assets.)
Hansen Medical (HNSN)
Bought: Aug @ $13.18
Sold: Oct @ $6.70 (-49%)
Year-closing price: $7.22 (-45%)
Surgical robot stocks 2, me 0.
Diana Shipping (DSX)
Bought: Jun @ $34.55, Aug @ $29.66, Nov @ $17.10
Sold: Nov @ $10.91 (-59%)
Year-closing price: $12.76 (-52%)
Don't really care about the capital losses as much as that they suspended their dividend on me. How dare they.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $34.02
Bought more: Feb @ $22.59
Sold: Jul @ $12.06 (-65%)
Year-closing price: $8.07 (-76%)
Does anybody really need whiz-bang graphics cards? No. No, they don't.
Vesta Wind Systems (VWSYF.PK)
Bought: Jul @ $129.00
Sold: Oct @ $36.45 (-72%)
Year-closing price: $59.00 (-54%)
Again, two really, really bad trades on my part. Wind power is probably a solid bet going forward.
MF Global (MF)
Year-opening price: $31.47
Bought more: Mar @ $19.94
Sold: Mar @ $8.25 (-74%)
Year-closing price: $2.04 (-94%)
Did well to lose only 74%. Yep, 2008 was a great year.
In 2008, it wasn't whether you lost money or not, it was how much money you lost. So I'm here today to bury last year; through the painstaking detailing of said losses of money, accompanied with snarky remarks for each wretched ticker symbol. (I'm not bitter.)
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2008's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Fording Coal (FDG)
Year-opening price: $37.51
Sold: Jul @ $88.53 (136%)
Stock-closing price: $93.71 (150%)
In what seems like eons ago but was actually last summer, commodity stocks had a huge bull run. Teck Cominco (TCK) decided to take out Fording near the top, and I decided to get out. Thank you, Teck Cominco - you gave me my only big winner of the year.
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)
Year-opening price: $34.02
Sold: Apr @ $37.00 (9%)
Year-closing price: $26.88 (-21%)
Another, yet minor, coal stock victory. Why coal? I don't know.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Year-opening price: $15.91
Sold: Mar @ $15.91 (0%)
Year-closing price: $15.87 (0%)
Hey, I didn't lose money here. Good job. For what it's worth, I still think Annaly is the best real estate stock out there (for those of you that really want to be in real estate).
Geron (GERN)
Year-opening price: $5.68
Sold: Jan @ $5.46 (-4%)
Year-closing price: $4.67 (-18%)
Lasted exactly 3 days into 2008. Can't say I regret selling it.
Nokia (NOK)
Year-opening price: $37.38
Sold: Apr @ $32.29 (-14%)
Year-closing price: $15.60 (-58%)
Should have been another one of my many January trades. Still not bad work done here.
Capstone Turbine (CPST)
Year-opening price: $1.63
Sold: Jan @ $1.20 (-26%)
Bought: Apr @ $2.65
Sold: Aug @ $2.35 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $0.84 (-48%)
It's kind of hard to follow the above, but I'll sum it up as: I bought when I should have been selling, and sold when I should have been buying. Except in August, when I did the right thing and gave up altogether.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $323.00
Sold: Jan @ $237.41 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $126.99 (-61%)
Surgical robot stocks 1, me 0.
Foster Wheeler (FWLT)
Bought: Jan @ $69.76, Mar @ $59.15
Sold: Aug @ $50.71 (-27%)
Year-closing price: $23.38 (-66%)
Probably a year early on the infrastructure play - and probably the wrong company too.
Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $389.90
Sold: Jan @ $282.37 (-28%)
Year-closing price: $130.57 (-67%)
The Chinese Google had an even worse year than the American Google.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (SID)
Bought: Apr @ $38.42
Sold: Sep @ $23.78 (-38%)
Year-closing price: $12.81 (-67%)
Too late on the steel trade.
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)
Year-opening price: $88.49
Sold: Jul @ $55.07 (-38%)
Year-closing price: $14.28 (-84%)
No sunshine here.
Nintendo (NTDOY.PK)
Bought: Aug @ $59.32
Sold: Oct @ $35.01 (-41%)
Year-closing price: $47.74 (-20%)
Two really, really bad trades on my part. Wii + DS = profits.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Year-opening price: $213.21
Bought more: Mar @ $144.61
Sold: Sep @ $118.89 (-44%)
Year-closing price: $84.39 (-60%)
Ladies and gentlemen: the world's finest investment bank, Goldman Sachs!
American Capital, Ltd. (ACAS)
Bought: Jan @ $32.99
Sold: Jul @ $17.00 (-48%)
Year-closing price: $3.24 (-90%)
Taught me the lesson of knowing the underlying assets that pay the dividend. (Hint: ACAS doesn't have good underlying assets.)
Hansen Medical (HNSN)
Bought: Aug @ $13.18
Sold: Oct @ $6.70 (-49%)
Year-closing price: $7.22 (-45%)
Surgical robot stocks 2, me 0.
Diana Shipping (DSX)
Bought: Jun @ $34.55, Aug @ $29.66, Nov @ $17.10
Sold: Nov @ $10.91 (-59%)
Year-closing price: $12.76 (-52%)
Don't really care about the capital losses as much as that they suspended their dividend on me. How dare they.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $34.02
Bought more: Feb @ $22.59
Sold: Jul @ $12.06 (-65%)
Year-closing price: $8.07 (-76%)
Does anybody really need whiz-bang graphics cards? No. No, they don't.
Vesta Wind Systems (VWSYF.PK)
Bought: Jul @ $129.00
Sold: Oct @ $36.45 (-72%)
Year-closing price: $59.00 (-54%)
Again, two really, really bad trades on my part. Wind power is probably a solid bet going forward.
MF Global (MF)
Year-opening price: $31.47
Bought more: Mar @ $19.94
Sold: Mar @ $8.25 (-74%)
Year-closing price: $2.04 (-94%)
Did well to lose only 74%. Yep, 2008 was a great year.
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