Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Sold F and CREE

In a running experiment of when and how to sell non-dividend stocks, I've sold two in the last two days, via automated processes: Ford (F) and Cree (CREE), due to both having broken long(er)-term chart trendlines. I am not a chartist - I believe in company fundamentals above all - but there is something appealing about setting a selling point and sticking to it, especially for investments that have no value beyond their trading price.

Here are the charts/trends in detail. First, Ford:



This is an ideal chart, lower-left to upper-right. Ford had plenty of room to run above the trend in 2011, but it is now a $50+ billion company by market cap, which seems like a fair evaluation to me. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have taken all the money I could get my hands on in February 2009 and invested it all in Ford. It's one of my best stock picks ever with a return of 653%.

A not-so-great stock pick was Cree:



The third time was the charm for falling through the floor at $48. There was also a clear floor/ceiling at $60, which of course would have been a better exit point when it crashed through in January 2011. Cree returned -28% from where it was bought in June 2010.

The proceeds from these sales will be used to buy more Baidu (BIDU).