Stocks Of The Month: DDD, SSYS

This month's stocks were heavily hinted at here, being responsible for much of my 2014 losses. However, I am nothing if not a stubborn stubborn stubborn determined investor...


3D Systems (DDD)

Positives:
Solid revenue growth (23%).
$377M cash vs. $10M debt.
Positive cash flows ($24M operating, $13M free).
Only 3D printing stock with positive margins (3% profit, 6% operating), ROA (2%), ROE (2%).

Negatives:
Absurd 152 P/E, though forward 29 P/E is a bargain.
Negative earnings growth (-83%).
Heavily shorted (38%).


Stratasys (SSYS)

Positives:
62% revenue growth.
$459M cash vs. $50M debt.
22% of shares owned by insiders.

Negatives:
No earnings as of yet; though forward P/E of 26 is a bargain.
Negative profit/operating margins (-4%) and ROA/ROE (-1%).


Here's my current portfolio (growth, dividend, and speculative (hey, there is no speculative!)). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.67%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 9.14%
Baidu (BIDU) 7.21%
Google (GOOG/GOOGL) 5.95%
3D Systems (DDD) 4.62%
Stratasys (SSYS) 4.00%
Under Armour (UA) 3.37%
Ace Limited (ACE) 3.14%
Amazon (AMZN) 2.90%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.72%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 2.61%
Blackstone (BX) 2.48%
Twitter (TWTR) 2.23%
Nike (NKE) 2.13%
Wells Fargo (WFC) 1.81%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.79%
Qihoo 360 (QIHU) 1.74%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.73%
Intel (INTC) 1.66%
American Software (AMSWA) 1.58%
ConocoPhillips (COP) 1.57%
Alibaba (BABA) 1.49%
DuPont (DD) 1.44%
Boeing (BA) 1.42%
EMC (EMC) 1.35%
McDonald's (MCD) 1.15%
American Express (AXP) 1.05%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.00%
Starbucks (SBUX) 0.99%
Cisco (CSCO) 0.96%
Hershey (HSY) 0.95%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.94%
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 0.93%
Ansys (ANSS) 0.88%
Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI) 0.87%
Groupon (GRPN) 0.84%
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) 0.84%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 0.84%
Coca-Cola (KO) 0.83%
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) 0.80%
China Mobile (CHL) 0.78%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 0.75%
International Business Machines (IBM) 0.61%
iRobot (IRBT) 0.58%
SolarCity (SCTY) 0.49%

2014 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns (Winners Edition)

In case you missed it, a delightfully short "Departed" recap can be found here...and a waaaaaay too long "Losers" recap can be found here.

My portfolio's performance this past year wasn't great. In fact, some might say it was (relatively) awful, returning 5.0% vs. 13.7% for the S&P 500. But it would have been even worse without these guys!

And now, let's look at all the winning stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2014's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


Coca-Cola (KO)
Year-opening price: $41.31
Year-closing price: $42.22 (2%)
Black gold. Long-term hold.

American Express (AXP)
Year-opening price: $90.73
Year-closing price: $93.04 (3%)
Took a breather after a surprisingly impressive 2013.

Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $78.39
Year-closing price: $82.05 (5%)
Keeps chugging along.

EMC (EMC)
Bought: Apr @ $28.00
Year-closing price: $29.74 (6%)
The new IBM, part one.

Hershey (HSY)
Year-opening price: $97.23
Year-closing price: $103.93 (7%)
I wonder how the forthcoming chocolate shortage will affect them.

Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $31.50
Year-closing price: $33.83 (7%)
This, plus the dividend, is a nice year.

Salesforce.com (CRM)
Year-opening price: $55.19
Year-closing price: $59.31 (7%)
Dominates its market. Due to be rewarded.

ACE Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $103.53
Year-closing price: $114.88 (11%)
Quietly churns out year after year of gains.

Alibaba (BABA)
Bought: Sep @ $92.70
Year-closing price: $103.94 (12%)
The biggest IPO of the year did not disappoint.

China Mobile (CHL)
Year-opening price: $52.29
Year-closing price: $58.82 (12%)
Solid bounce-back year. Net $73B(!) in the bank.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
Bought: Mar @ $49.50
Year-closing price: $55.79 (13%)
My second go-around here. Needs to be bought by Under Armour or Nike.

BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $316.47
Bought more: Nov @ $338.00
Year-closing price: $357.56 (13%)
Ought to be doing well...they own most of the market.

DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $64.97
Year-closing price: $73.94 (14%)
Backed up amazing 2013 with another solid year.

Costco Wholesale (COST)
Bought: Aug @ $119.00
Year-closing price: $141.75 (19%)
The finest retailer in the world.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $45.40
Bought more: Nov @ $53.42
Year-closing price: $53.82 (21%)
The best bank money can buy.

Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $57.02
Year-closing price: $68.91 (21%)
Trains are awesome.

Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $78.64
Year-closing price: $96.15 (22%)
A good proxy for human activity, really.

Cisco (CSCO)
Year-opening price: $22.43
Year-closing price: $27.82 (24%)
The new IBM, part two.

Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $37.41
Bought more: Aug @ $43.67
Year-closing price: $46.45 (24%)
Not just a bounce-back; they have their mojo back for the first time since the millenium.

Groupon (GRPN)
Bought: Jul @ $6.52
Year-closing price: $8.26 (27%)
Seems undervalued here.

Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $177.88
Year-closing price: $227.97 (28%)
Wins yearly back and forth competition with Qihoo 360.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $384.08
Year-closing price: $528.94 (38%)
Major bounce-back and long-term growth story.

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $80.15
Bought more: Jan @ $77.76
Year-closing price: $110.38 (38%)
The best company in the world, bar none.

Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $25.95
Year-closing price: $36.29 (40%)
Two fantastic years in a row.

F5 Networks (FFIV)
Year-opening price: $90.86
Year-closing price: $130.46 (44%)
Finally got its act together, after years of mediocrity.

Telsa (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $150.43
Year-closing price: $222.41 (48%)
Amazing to say this was a somewhat disappointing year, after touching $300.

Under Armour (UA)
Year-opening price: $43.65
Year-closing price: $67.90 (56%)
Sights aimed squarely on Nike. Still a bunch of growth ahead.

2014 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns (Losers Edition)

In case you missed it, a delightfully short "Departed" recap can be found here.

My portfolio's performance this past year wasn't great. In fact, some might say it was (relatively) awful, returning 5.0% vs. 13.7% for the S&P 500. However, the difference is largely attributable to just two stocks, and I happen to believe that those two stocks are wildly mispriced...to the point that I plan to capitalize on that wild mispricing in short order. I may have lost the battle of 2014, but I'm still well positioned to win the war.

Also, since I hold so many stocks (49!), I've decided to divide this post into two: "losers" and "winners".

And now, let's look at all the losing stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2014's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $92.93
Bought more: Mar @ $73.84, May @ $48.88, Jun @ $51.51, Aug @ $48.03
Year-closing price: $32.87 (-65%)
I'm not worried/thanks for the discount, part one.

Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $63.65
Bought more: Jun @ $31.70
Year-closing price: $35.87 (-44%)
A rough first half, but at least I bought more at the right time.

Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $134.70
Bought more: Mar @ $125.09, Sep @ $121.83
Year-closing price: $83.11 (-38%)
I'm not worried/thanks for the discount, part two.

Qihoo 360 (QIHU)
Year-opening price: $82.05
Year-closing price: $57.26 (-30%)
Due for a breather after a torrid 2013, part one.

SolarCity (SCTY)
Bought: Jul @ $74.00
Year-closing price: $53.48 (-28%)
Elon Musk has yet to work his magic here.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Year-opening price: $78.87
Year-closing price: $58.16 (-26%)
Macau bubble burst, part one.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Year-opening price: $194.21
Year-closing price: $148.76 (-23%)
Macau bubble burst, part two.

Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $398.79
Year-closing price: $310.35 (-22%)
No concern here. A long-term core tech holding.

Global Sources (GSOL)
Year-opening price: $8.13
Year-closing price: $6.36 (-22%)
Back to where it started in 2013.

T-Mobile (TMUS)
Year-opening price: $33.64
Year-closing price: $26.94 (-20%)
Not a great company, to be sure. Dying to be bought out.

iRobot (IRBT)
Bought: Mar @ $41.15
Year-closing price: $34.72 (-16%)
When is Amazon or Google going to buy?

International Business Machines (IBM)
Year-opening price: $187.57
Year-closing price: $160.44 (-14%)
The year the earnings bubble popped. Needs to reinvent itself (again).

La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Year-opening price: $31.00
Year-closing price: $26.84 (-13%)
Due for a breather after a torrid 2013, part two.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $9.87
Year-closing price: $9.11 (-8%)
Mostly here for the dividend anyway.

Google (GOOG/GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $560.36
Year-closing price: $523.40 (-6%)
Even though it split 2:1, still seems afraid of heights.

Ansys (ANSS)
Year-opening price: $87.20
Year-closing price: $82.00 (-6%)
The one boring 3D printing play.

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $97.03
Year-closing price: $93.70 (-3%)
Desperately needs a new menu...and new leadership.

ConocoPhillips (COP)
Year-opening price: $70.65
Bought more: Nov @ $69.82
Year-closing price: $69.06 (-2%)
Oil had a horrible year, but these guys are still one of the best.

Boeing (BA)
Bought: Dec @ $132.74
Year-closing price: $129.98 (-2%)
Just getting ready for takeoff. (See what I did there?)

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $28.71
Year-closing price: $28.20 (-2%)
Has been dead money since 2008.

Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI)
Year-opening price: $61.81
Year-closing price: $60.75 (-2%)
Should benefit from continued modernization of health care.

Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Year-opening price: $67.50
Year-closing price: $67.08 (-1%)
The boring half of Motorola keeps chugging along.

2014 Stock Recap: The Departed

A tradition unlike any other...

For the second year in a row, the "Departed" post is fairly short, meaning I am generally pleased with my portfolio as it is presently composed. Things are definitely trending in the right direction; if not by performance, then by philosophy.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2014's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
Year-opening price: $80.66
Sold: Aug @ $92.00 (14%)
Merger: Nov @ $102.03 (26%)
...I guess I felt like leaving 12% on the table.

Whole Food Markets (WFM)
Year-opening price: $57.83
Sold: Sep @ $38.47 (-33%)
Year-closing price: $50.42 (-13%)
A botched trade all around.

Vodafone (VOD)
Year-opening price: $39.31
Sold: Feb @ $41.58 (6%)
Year-closing price: $34.17 (-13%)
Sold at the right time. A 4+ year winner.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)
Year-opening price: $11.22
Sold: Dec @ $8.27 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $ (-26%)
The last of my mega-dividend stocks.

Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $85.94
Sold: Nov @ $77.96 (-9%)
Year-closing price: $62.67 (-27%)
Associated with cheap commodities. Will probably be bought out soon.

Bebe Stores (BEBE)
Year-opening price: $5.32
Sold: Sep @ $2.66 (-50%)
Year-closing price: $2.19 (-59%)
A "Distressed" pick from 2012; did not disappoint.

ExOne (XONE)
Year-opening price: $60.46
Bought more: May @ $35.05 (-42%)
Sold: Sep @ $26.23 (-57%)
Year-closing price: $16.80 (-72%)
That one 3D printing stock I wish I never knew.