Sunday, January 4, 2015

2014 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns (Losers Edition)

In case you missed it, a delightfully short "Departed" recap can be found here.

My portfolio's performance this past year wasn't great. In fact, some might say it was (relatively) awful, returning 5.0% vs. 13.7% for the S&P 500. However, the difference is largely attributable to just two stocks, and I happen to believe that those two stocks are wildly mispriced...to the point that I plan to capitalize on that wild mispricing in short order. I may have lost the battle of 2014, but I'm still well positioned to win the war.

Also, since I hold so many stocks (49!), I've decided to divide this post into two: "losers" and "winners".

And now, let's look at all the losing stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2014's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $92.93
Bought more: Mar @ $73.84, May @ $48.88, Jun @ $51.51, Aug @ $48.03
Year-closing price: $32.87 (-65%)
I'm not worried/thanks for the discount, part one.

Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $63.65
Bought more: Jun @ $31.70
Year-closing price: $35.87 (-44%)
A rough first half, but at least I bought more at the right time.

Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $134.70
Bought more: Mar @ $125.09, Sep @ $121.83
Year-closing price: $83.11 (-38%)
I'm not worried/thanks for the discount, part two.

Qihoo 360 (QIHU)
Year-opening price: $82.05
Year-closing price: $57.26 (-30%)
Due for a breather after a torrid 2013, part one.

SolarCity (SCTY)
Bought: Jul @ $74.00
Year-closing price: $53.48 (-28%)
Elon Musk has yet to work his magic here.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Year-opening price: $78.87
Year-closing price: $58.16 (-26%)
Macau bubble burst, part one.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Year-opening price: $194.21
Year-closing price: $148.76 (-23%)
Macau bubble burst, part two.

Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $398.79
Year-closing price: $310.35 (-22%)
No concern here. A long-term core tech holding.

Global Sources (GSOL)
Year-opening price: $8.13
Year-closing price: $6.36 (-22%)
Back to where it started in 2013.

T-Mobile (TMUS)
Year-opening price: $33.64
Year-closing price: $26.94 (-20%)
Not a great company, to be sure. Dying to be bought out.

iRobot (IRBT)
Bought: Mar @ $41.15
Year-closing price: $34.72 (-16%)
When is Amazon or Google going to buy?

International Business Machines (IBM)
Year-opening price: $187.57
Year-closing price: $160.44 (-14%)
The year the earnings bubble popped. Needs to reinvent itself (again).

La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Year-opening price: $31.00
Year-closing price: $26.84 (-13%)
Due for a breather after a torrid 2013, part two.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $9.87
Year-closing price: $9.11 (-8%)
Mostly here for the dividend anyway.

Google (GOOG/GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $560.36
Year-closing price: $523.40 (-6%)
Even though it split 2:1, still seems afraid of heights.

Ansys (ANSS)
Year-opening price: $87.20
Year-closing price: $82.00 (-6%)
The one boring 3D printing play.

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $97.03
Year-closing price: $93.70 (-3%)
Desperately needs a new menu...and new leadership.

ConocoPhillips (COP)
Year-opening price: $70.65
Bought more: Nov @ $69.82
Year-closing price: $69.06 (-2%)
Oil had a horrible year, but these guys are still one of the best.

Boeing (BA)
Bought: Dec @ $132.74
Year-closing price: $129.98 (-2%)
Just getting ready for takeoff. (See what I did there?)

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $28.71
Year-closing price: $28.20 (-2%)
Has been dead money since 2008.

Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI)
Year-opening price: $61.81
Year-closing price: $60.75 (-2%)
Should benefit from continued modernization of health care.

Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Year-opening price: $67.50
Year-closing price: $67.08 (-1%)
The boring half of Motorola keeps chugging along.