Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Sold F and CREE

In a running experiment of when and how to sell non-dividend stocks, I've sold two in the last two days, via automated processes: Ford (F) and Cree (CREE), due to both having broken long(er)-term chart trendlines. I am not a chartist - I believe in company fundamentals above all - but there is something appealing about setting a selling point and sticking to it, especially for investments that have no value beyond their trading price.

Here are the charts/trends in detail. First, Ford:



This is an ideal chart, lower-left to upper-right. Ford had plenty of room to run above the trend in 2011, but it is now a $50+ billion company by market cap, which seems like a fair evaluation to me. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have taken all the money I could get my hands on in February 2009 and invested it all in Ford. It's one of my best stock picks ever with a return of 653%.

A not-so-great stock pick was Cree:



The third time was the charm for falling through the floor at $48. There was also a clear floor/ceiling at $60, which of course would have been a better exit point when it crashed through in January 2011. Cree returned -28% from where it was bought in June 2010.

The proceeds from these sales will be used to buy more Baidu (BIDU).

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Stock Of The Month: NOK

I've bought low and sold high in this stock once before...trying to repeat history...

Nokia (NOK)

Positives:
Well-funded ~6% dividend yield.
Low 11 forward P/E.
Plus $10 billion(!) cash-minus-debt on balance sheet.
Essentially a (well-compensated) hardware supplier of Microsoft.

Negatives:
Thin margins and returns on assets/equity.
Slow/shrinking growth.
Best hopes of finishing third in a crowded smartphone field.


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.29%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.69%
Google (GOOG) 6.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.45%
Baidu (BIDU) 4.35%
Apache (APA) 4.26%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.19%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, F, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 4.10%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.73%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.55%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.51%
Blackstone (BX) 3.28%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.08%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.07%
Frontline (FRO) 3.01%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.91%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.71%
DuPont (DD) 2.63%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.63%
Intel (INTC) 2.44%
BreitBurn (BBEP) 2.35%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.25%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.13%
Nokia (NOK) 1.88%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.55%
Cree (CREE) 1.03%