Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Putting The Damage On: Sold AWK, CNI, KSU, NSC, SBUX, UNP, WM; Bought AGG, HYLB, USHY

It is a fine line between prudence and panic.

Having observed my portfolio peak on February 19th along with the rest of the market, then precipitously decline, then expediently rebound back to where it was...

Yesterday, the market crumbled in the final hour of trading. This is something, as a long-term investor, I probably should have ignored. But I did not...

I read some tweets, and recalled some books, from some trusted sources. I reconciled with my new-ish portfolio philosophy. Mostly, I thought about the days and weeks following February 19th - and the nagging feeling that I could have, and should have, done something.

I feel like the days and weeks to follow May 12th will offer a sort of a 'do-over' for the days and weeks following February 19th.

Earlier this month, I had identified six stocks that I wanted to sell. I had planned to do this over the second half of 2020, but now my prudence was telling me the time is now.

Here are the six stocks (plus one) that I have sold. They all feature anemic growth and undesirable amounts of debt:

American Water Works (AWK): $3.6B revenue, 4% revenue growth, $0.1B cash, $10.4B debt
Canadian National Railway (CNI): -6% revenue growth
Kansas City Southern (KSU): $2.9B revenue, 8% revenue growth, $0.1B cash, $3.3B debt
Norfolk Southern (NSC): $11.1B revenue, -8% revenue growth, $0.6B cash, $12.2B debt
Starbucks (SBUX): $26.7B revenue, -5% revenue growth, $2.6B cash, $22.9B debt
Union Pacific (UNP): $21.6B revenue, -3% revenue growth, $1.2B cash, $29.2B debt
Waste Management (WM): $15.5B revenue, 1% revenue growth, $3.1B cash, $13.5B debt

In their place, I have purchased the first bond holdings of this portfolio's twenty year existence: equal amounts of AGG, HYLB, and USHY. I also have established stop-loss trigger orders - some of which, as of this writing, are very close to firing - for each of the remaining non-Big Five stocks; upon execution, the proceeds will be reinvested into the same three bond ETFs.

The result of all these moves is to:
  • Increase focus on my largest (i.e. core) holdings;
  • Retain capital gains via automated decisioning; and
  • Rebalance my portfolio in favor of lower-risk assets.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Stocks Of The Month: MSFT, NVDA

On January 2nd I posted my Plan for 2020 and Beyond in which I committed to "get[ting] each of Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla to reach 16% of my holdings."

The good news is that I've bumped each of those stocks to a goal of 17%.

The bad(?) news is that each of these 17% (or 16%) goals are not viable without selling the more insignificant of my holdings. I've been lamenting for years that my portfolio has too many stocks; additionally, I've recently determined that several of the lesser holdings have undesirable amounts of debt.

This month's casualty is CSX. It features negative revenue growth (-5.2%), earnings growth (-7.7%), and a cash-to-debt ratio of $2.5B to $17.2B. First bought in March 2017, I was able to realize a 20% gain (6% annualized).


For the foreseeable future, I not only want to track which of my Big Five I buy in a given month - I want to track those that I don't buy.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.14T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $296.3B revenue
  • 26% revenue growth
  • $49.3B cash
  • $63.7B debt
  • $39.7B operating cash flow
  • $40.7B free cash flow

Apple (AAPL)
  • $1.27T market cap
  • 1.1% dividend yield
  • $268.0B revenue
  • 1% revenue growth
  • $94.1B cash
  • $109.5B debt
  • $75.4B operating cash flow
  • $45.7B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $1.32T market cap
  • 1.1% dividend yield
  • $138.7B revenue
  • 15% revenue growth
  • $137.6B cash
  • $84.0B debt
  • $58.1B operating cash flow
  • $36.2B free cash flow

NVIDIA (NVDA)
  • $173.1B market cap
  • 0.2% dividend yield
  • $10.9B revenue
  • 41% revenue growth
  • $10.9B cash
  • $2.6B debt
  • $4.8B operating cash flow
  • $3.2B free cash flow

Tesla (TSLA)
  • $129.3B market cap
  • no dividend
  • $26.0B revenue
  • 32% revenue growth
  • $8.1B cash
  • $15.2B debt
  • $2.6B operating cash flow
  • $1.6B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Tesla (TSLA) 18.87%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 15.68%
Amazon (AMZN) 14.46%
Apple (AAPL) 11.75%
Microsoft (MSFT) 10.90%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 4.61%
Facebook (FB) 3.10%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.42%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.22%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.67%
Salesforce (CRM) 1.66%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.65%
Visa (V) 1.63%
Intel (INTC) 1.55%
Nike (NKE) 1.52%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.16%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 1.05%
Waste Management (WM) 0.98%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.74%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.71%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.61%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.57%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.24%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.24%