Friday, January 7, 2022

On The Turning Away: Sold GOOGL, ISRG, V

Unaware how the ranks have grown
Driven on by a heart of stone
We could find that we're all alone
In the dream of the proud

The sales of GOOGL, ISRG, and V were not easy.  They had annualized returns of 17%, 11%, and 19% respectively, and comprised nearly 10% of of my portfolio's overall valuation.  One might say that they were victims of their own success.   

The proceeds from this sale were (once again) directed into my favorite basket of yield ETF/Ns:  the index covered calls of QYLD, RYLD, and XYLD; and the gold/silver/oil covered calls of GLDI, SLVO, and USOI.

With this most recent rotation from stocks into yield, my portfolio now yields a projected 6% annually.  This could grow as much as to 8% annually.


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 25/75 split between stocks and yield. As seen below, it is currently 40/60.

I am in no rush to flip into yield. I would rather let my winners run forever. However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond, preferred stock, and/or covered call ETF/Ns. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.66T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $458.0B revenue
  • 15% revenue growth
  • $79.0B cash
  • $155.8B debt
  • $54.7B operating cash flow
  • $9.3B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $2.36T market cap
  • 0.8% dividend yield
  • $176.3B revenue
  • 22% revenue growth
  • $130.6B cash
  • $78.9B debt
  • $82.0B operating cash flow
  • $49.8B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETF/ETNs - until I sell them.

Microsoft (MSFT) 15.15%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.58%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 11.36%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 11.29%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 11.20%
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) 6.98%
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) 6.25%
Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs (USOI) 5.22%
Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO) 5.01%
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) 4.53%
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) 2.94%
Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) 2.66%
Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI) 2.42%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.70%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.52%
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) 0.10%
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) 0.04%
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 (URTY) 0.03%

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

2021 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

A tradition unlike any other...

2021 was a transitional year - my first full calendar year as a blended stocks-and-income portfolio.  I lagged the S&P 500 by -11.8% (15.1% vs. 26.9%), and trailed the NASDAQ by -6.3% (15.1% vs. 21.4%).  My net worth ended the year near all-time highs, and my portfolio's annualized returns outperformance is a solid +2.6% vs. the S&P 500 (8.3% vs. 5.7%) and +1.4% vs. the NASDAQ (8.3% vs. 6.9%) since I started in the year 2000.

Comparatively, 2022 will kick off with a bang (i.e. some of these stocks will soon join the departed).

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2021's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO)
Bought: Jun @ $6.05
Bought more: Jul, Aug, Dec, Dec
Year-closing price: $5.08 (-16%)
Income, part one.

ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 (URTY)
Bought: May @ $110.83
Bought more: Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $101.12 (-9%)
If some Russell 2000 is good, three times the Russell 2000 must be better (though mostly it is not, and it is not).

Visa (V)
Year-opening price: $218.73
Year-closing price: $216.71 (-1%)
Increased competition vs. rivals PayPal and Square.

Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)
Bought: Mar @ $22.32
Bought more: Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Dec, Dec
Year-closing price: $22.19 (-1%)
Income, part two.

Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB)
Year-opening price: $40.07
Bought more: Jan, Jan, Mar, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $39.84 (-1%)
Income, part three.

iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY)
Year-opening price: $41.26
Bought more: Jan, Jan, Mar, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $41.19 (-0%)
Income, part four.

Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD)
Year-opening price: $25.80
Bought more: Jan, Jan, Mar, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $25.76 (-0%)
Income, part five.

Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI)
Bought: Dec @ $8.29
Bought more: Dec
Year-closing price: $8.46 (+2%)
Income, part six.

Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $3256.93 
Year-closing price: $3334.34 (+2%)
Ignored in 2021; should roar back in 2022.  Inexplicably, has remaining upside of 45% and 74% vs. market caps of peers MSFT and AAPL.

Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD)
Bought: Mar @ $23.78
Bought more: Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Dec, Dec
Year-closing price: $24.41 (+3%)
Income, part seven.

Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) 
Bought: Mar @ $47.84
Bought more: Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, Dec, Dec
Year-closing price: $50.51 (+6%)
Income, part eight.

Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ)
Year-opening price: $30.87 
Year-closing price: $33.57 (+9%)
It's what one might wish the Russell 2000 to be, instead of the perpetual underperformer that it is.

Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs (USOI)
Bought: Dec @ $4.71
Bought more: Dec
Year-closing price: $5.19 (+10%)
Income, part nine.

Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM)
Year-opening price: $128.97
Bought more: Jan, Jan, Mar, Mar, Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $163.55 (+27%)
Just like QQQ, but with a lower expense ratio.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $272.70
Year-closing price: $359.30 (+32%)
A company without peers.

ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO)
Bought: May @ $106.75
Bought more:  Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $152.56 (+43%)
If some S&P 500 is good, three times the S&P 500 must be better.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Year-opening price: $350.68
Year-closing price: $502.14 (+43%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.  Expanded Medicare a (fading) concern.

Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $376.78
Year-closing price: $567.70 (+51%)
The finest brick-and-mortar retailer in the world.

Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $222.42
Bought more: Jan
Year-closing price: $336.32 (+51%)
The Satya Nadella winning streak continues.  The best proxy for dual trends of work-from-home and software eating the world.

ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)
Bought: May @ $103.24
Bought more:  Jun, Jul, Aug
Year-closing price: $166.33 (+61%)
If some NASDAQ 100 is good, three times the NASDAQ 100 must be better.

Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $1752.64
Year-closing price: $2897.04 (+65%)
Finally, its year to lead big tech.

Saturday, January 1, 2022

2021 Stock Recap: The Departed

 A tradition unlike any other...


2021 was a transitional year - my first full calendar year as a blended stocks-and-income portfolio.  I lagged the S&P 500 by -11.8% (15.1% vs. 26.9%), and trailed the NASDAQ by -6.3% (15.1% vs. 21.4%).  My net worth ended the year near all-time highs, and my portfolio's annualized returns outperformance is a solid +2.6% vs. the S&P 500 (8.3% vs. 5.7%) and +1.4% vs. the NASDAQ (8.3% vs. 6.9%) since I started in the year 2000.

While there were sixteen tickers sold in 2020, there were just six sold in 2021.  (Comparatively, 2022 will kick off with a bang.)

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2021's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


Meta (FB)
Year-opening price: $205.25
Sold: Dec @ $307.32 (+50%)
Year-closing price: $336.35 (+64%)
Faces an uncertain future with its announced pivot to the Metaverse™, increasing regulatory scrutiny.

Adobe (ADBE)
Year-opening price: $500.12
Sold: Mar @ $429.54 (-14%)
Year-closing price: $567.06 (+13%)
One of my best investments ever, Adobe increased +34% annualized over 5+ years.

iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
Year-opening price: $118.19
Bought more:  Jan, Jan
Sold: Mar @ $113.58 (-4%)
Year-closing price: $114.08 (-3%)
Yield too low for my purposes.

Verizon (VZ)
Bought: Mar @ $55.19
Sold: Dec @ $51.75 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $51.96 (-6%)
Perpetually undervalued - and the market doesn't care, part one.

Autodesk (ADSK)
Year-opening price: $305.34
Sold: Mar @ $256.90 (-16%)
Year-closing price: $281.19 (-8%)
One of my best investments ever, Autodesk increased +32% annualized over 5+ years.

AT&T (T)
Bought: Mar @ $29.16
Sold: Dec @ $23.53 (-19%)
Year-closing price: $24.60 (-16%)
Perpetually undervalued - and the market doesn't care, part two.