Monday, February 4, 2019

Stock Of The Month: NVDA

First, a sale!  Activision Blizzard (ATVI) has underperformed - rounded to -1% both actual and annualized - and with -7% revenue growth, is no longer worth owning.

This month's stock choice is the wildly mispriced NVIDIA (NVDA).  The price per share has changed since the previous purchase...but the fundamentals have not.

Revisiting the catalysts for NVIDIA to outperform the market for the foreseeable future:
  • NVIDIA is at the heart of technologies shaping our future:  deep learning, artificial intelligence, datacenters/cloud computing, and automated driving. 
  • NVIDIA's market cap is currently $91B, while Intel's (INTC) is $221B.  Within the semiconductor industry, Intel is the best-in-class manufacturer, while NVIDIA is the best-in-class designer.  If someone wants the most powerful chips in the world, they choose NVIDIA.  Therefore, I believe NVIDIA's market cap will eventually exceed that of fairly-valued Intel's - currently implying a minimum 143% upside.
  • NVIDIA's new chip (Turing) being so much better than their old chip (Pascal) is a high-quality problem.  The inventory issues causing so much grief with investors will soon be in the past.

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 14.35%
Tesla (TSLA) 13.68%
Apple (AAPL) 11.96%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 10.83%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 6.86%
Facebook (FB) 4.46%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.35%
Microsoft (MSFT) 4.16%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.83%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.55%
Nike (NKE) 2.50%
Intel (INTC) 2.28%
Visa (V) 2.26%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 2.17%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.66%
Waste Management (WM) 1.64%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.33%
Booking Holdings (BKNG) 1.29%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.27%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.26%
Union Pacific (UNP) 1.08%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.05%
CSX (CSX) 0.97%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.79%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.63%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.57%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.42%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.42%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.34%