Thursday, October 13, 2011

Stock Of The Month: AGNC

First off, I bought a little more Netflix (NLFX) last month to get my cost basis down, as CEO Reed Hastings continues his quest to become the most notorious business school case study subject ever...it's down even more since I bought. While I love Netflix the service, I'd advise to follow NFLX the stock at your own peril.

Now on to the proper Stock Of The Month.

This June, I couldn't decide between two REITs, so I decided buy half of both and see if one would do better. Chimera (CIM) was the loser, sinking 29% since. The winner, down only 5%, is:

American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Positives:
Gargantuan 21% dividend yield, at a sustainable 75% payout ratio.
Healthy profit and operating margins (93%).

Negatives:
Low insider (0.04%) and institutional (17.20%) holdings suggest a prevailing lack of confidence.
Usual caveats of a housing/financial stock.


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 14.34%
Baidu (BIDU) 10.61%
Google (GOOG) 8.03%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 6.35%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.94%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 4.94%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.28%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.71%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.61%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.49%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 3.36%
Apache (APA) 3.06%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.73%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.71%
Intel (INTC) 2.69%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.59%
Blackstone (BX) 2.49%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.28%
DuPont (DD) 2.17%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.87%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR, WFC) 1.71%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.67%
Under Armour (UA) 1.64%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.56%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.37%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.31%

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Stocks Of The Month: TSLA, KMP

I was going to have just one stock of the month, but since I seem to enjoy portfolio churn so much, there are two.

Gone is Cherokee (CHKE), due to a declining dividend and stock price; as well as both Motorola Mobility (MMI) and STEC (STEC), due to being insignificant holdings percentage-wise.

In their place are a speculative and a dividend stock respectively...

Tesla Motors (TSLA)

Positives:
Pure play on the long-term trend of automobiles transitioning from gasoline to electric power.
Super-cool cars (they manufacture and sell their own brand) and technology (they supply powertrains for Daimler and Toyota).

Negatives:
Horrible fundamentals across the board (negative earnings, margins, cash flows, etc., etc.)


Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)

Positives:
High dividend yield (6.6%) and a nearly 20-year history of increasing dividend payments.
Steady, positive cash flows.

Negatives:
Revenues (+3%) and earnings (-36%) not very good.


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 13.09%
Baidu (BIDU) 11.55%
Google (GOOG) 8.20%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.16%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.33%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.60%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.36%
Apache (APA) 3.95%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.67%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.57%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.57%
Blackstone (BX) 2.68%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.52%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.52%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.46%
Intel (INTC) 2.38%
DuPont (DD) 2.37%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.26%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.97%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR, WFC) 1.83%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.76%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.70%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.50%
Under Armour (UA) 1.49%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 1.44%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.18%

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Farewell To DOM

I've owned Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) since November 2007. It was my Stock Of The Month just 2 months ago. But in a first half of 2011 that has been mostly foul-ups, bloopers, and blunders, I sold it all on Friday after it hit an all-time low closing price on Thursday. I had set a triggered sell when I last bought it, thinking it would never actually be needed. As DOM sunk lower and lower in recent weeks, I still thought it would bounce back. It didn't - the capital losses were overwhelming the dividend, and I had to admit defeat and move on.

Fortunately, DOM was still around 5.5% of my portfolio, so I had a great opportunity to fill some long-standing orders:
  • Bought enough Baidu (BIDU) to get back to where I was before, thereby (as best as is possible) undoing my worst stock sale ever;
  • Bought enough Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) to get back to where I was before as well; and
  • Used the remainder to buy Google (GOOG). I'd like to say that I got in before their fantastic last-quarter results were announced and the stock jumped 13%, but of course, I didn't.
Those are, as the reader might notice, three non-dividend-paying stocks. I feel that the chance to scratch some items off my to-do list outweighed the need to immediately replace DOM with a similar stock. I do have a few large dividend-paying candidates in mind though, and will be buying them as part of my normal monthly investments going forward.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Stock Of The Month: UA

At the halfway point of 2011, things aren't looking so good.


So it's time for a comeback...a "game-two-of-the finals-and-the-opponent's-star-player-held-his-follow-through-a-little-too-long-on-a-corner-three" order of comeback. It's not going to be easy. But I'll try to do it the only way I know how: one stock at a time.

Under Armour (UA)

Positives:
Excellent revenue growth (36%) and earnings growth (69%).
Undervalued market cap ($4B) vs. competitors Adidas ($17B) and Nike ($44B).

Negatives:
Mediocre profit margin (6%), operating margin (10%), ROA (12%) and ROE (16%).
Negative cash flows.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.95%
Baidu (BIDU) 8.94%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.35%
Google (GOOG) 5.82%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 5.75%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.52%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.33%
Apache (APA) 4.23%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.75%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.69%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.68%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.36%
Blackstone (BX) 3.01%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.86%
DuPont (DD) 2.63%
Intel (INTC) 2.54%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.49%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.49%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.41%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, PCS, RVR, STEC, WFC) 2.36%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.15%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.05%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.83%
Under Armour (UA) 1.69%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.62%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.33%

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Stocks Of The Month: NFLX, BIDU

I've been watching this stock for literally hundreds of dollars, but there is still room to grow.

Netflix (NFLX)

Positives:
Huge revenue growth this year (50%), estimated next quarter (52%) and next year (34%).
Good ROA (24%), outstanding ROE (89%).
Relatively small market cap ($14B) vs. competitors DirecTV ($37B), Comcast ($66B), Amazon ($85B).
International expansion underway.

Negatives:
P/E of 78, forward P/E of 40.
Likely some form of "bandwidth usage tax" forthcoming.


The only stock I can see that has better growth and profitability metrics is Baidu (BIDU), whose fundamentals have been covered previously. I have added some more this month, and will continue to accumulate.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.84%
Baidu (BIDU) 8.09%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 7.40%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.48%
Google (GOOG) 5.89%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.81%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.69%
Apache (APA) 4.20%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.80%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.69%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.42%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.34%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.25%
Blackstone (BX) 3.01%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.93%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.58%
Intel (INTC) 2.57%
DuPont (DD) 2.53%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.50%
The Distressed (ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, PCS, RVR, STEC, WFC) 2.37%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.18%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.15%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 1.98%
Chimera Investment (CIM) 1.84%
Netflix (NFLX) 1.28%

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

The Summer Of (Stock) Discontent

Sometimes I sell a stock because it has incurred capital losses. Sometimes I sell a stock because the company is in trouble. Sometimes I sell a stock because its dividend is at-risk.

Sometimes I sell a stock because I get tired of looking at it every day.

Or sometimes, all of these things come together in an overwhelming confluence of ineptitude, where I, the chooser of the stock, is left to wonder...what the heck went wrong here? How did I allow this to happen?

Earlier this year, Great Northern Iron (GNI) imploded. Today, I sold both Frontline (FRO) and Nokia (NOK) after they drifted down 37% and 25% respectively from where I bought.

These should have been three pleasantly boring dividend stocks, but turned out to be volatile losers. Let's examine where I went wrong vs. my previously stated investing philosophy.

"My intentions are to own stocks that"...
  • "are long-term, 'buy-and-hold' investments" - GNI is a trust with an expiration date of 2015, so it can't even pass this most basic of thresholds. FRO and NOK are presumably going to be around longer.
  • "represent great underlying companies and/or valuable assets" - GNI's underlying asset isn't minerals; it's the dissolving trust. FRO is a fleet of shipping tankers - not good. NOK is a technology portfolio that was cool 10 years ago - even worse.
  • "have excellence across as many metrics as possible" - here's where things get tricky. GNI has outstanding stats everywhere...profitability, ROA/ROE, revenue growth, earnings growth. Of course, none of that matters; you can probably guess why by now. FRO's stats are, quite frankly, awful. NOK's aren't much better, other than being a cash cow.
  • "are cheap by valuation" - cheap for a reason, no?
  • "pay outstanding, stable, well-funded dividends" - the dividends are large, but flawed. GNI's just isn't enough given its shelf life. FRO's is notoriously inconsistent. NOK's is a great bet to be slashed or suspended in the near future.
  • "promise extraordinary growth" - a big ol' "N/A" here.
The proceeds from the sales of Frontline and Nokia went towards buying shares of American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) and Chimera Investment Corp. (CIM), two REITs with large dividends of their own. I would ordinarily write up some nice things to say about them, but I'm too afraid I'd look like an idiot in a few months.

The proper Stock Of The Month will appear next week.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Stock Of The Month: DOM

As previously mentioned and bought in 2010, 2008, and 2007 - what can I say, DOM is my go-to dividend stock, and the chartist in me says it's easy to know when to buy.



Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)

Positives:
7% dividend yield.
As a trust, has a 100% payout ratio and is a pure dividend stock.

Negatives:
Little to no opportunity for capital gains.


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.87%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 8.04%
Baidu (BIDU) 7.37%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.96%
Google (GOOG) 5.79%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.44%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.50%
Apache (APA) 4.40%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.77%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.67%
Blackstone (BX) 3.32%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.28%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.27%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.23%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.98%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 2.85%
DuPont (DD) 2.66%
Intel (INTC) 2.59%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.59%
Frontline (FRO) 2.36%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.32%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.24%
Nokia (NOK) 2.02%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.87%

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Stocks Of The Month: NLY, ISRG

I was able to choose two stocks this month, because one that I had owned has some potentially serious issues. The cliffsnotes story on Great Northern Iron (GNI) is that it is a trust which will dissolve in 2015, and the sum of its projected dividend payments and final payout per share, from the present until that time, is significantly less than the current price of the stock. This is openly disclosed in the trust's 10-K filings, and the increasing knowledge of its circumstances has resulted in some recent large losses. I don't feel too terribly bad for owning the stock, as I sold for a slight capital gain and collected a few dividends along the way. But I do have to double-guess myself when I can wonder aloud why it was behaving strangely.

This month's stocks are ones I already own, and wanted to add more...one a dividend stock, and one a growth stock...

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Positives:
Huge profit and operating margins (86% and 88% respectively).
+11% spread between ROE and ROA.
Positive operating cash flow ($11B).
Trailing P/E of 8, forward P/E of 7.
Whopping 14.4% dividend yield.

Negatives:
Huge debt ($67B)...of course, debt is their business.
Low insider holding (0.44%).


Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

Positives:
Super-cool surgical robots.
Solid revenue (21%) and earnings (56%) growth.
No debt.
Positive cash flow.

Negatives:
Low insider ownership (1.2%).


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 11.71%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 8.58%
Baidu (BIDU) 7.85%
Google (GOOG) 6.39%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 5.62%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.37%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.52%
Apache (APA) 4.26%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.87%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.80%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.44%
Blackstone (BX) 3.33%
Cherokee (CHKE) 3.18%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.18%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.91%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 2.85%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.70%
DuPont (DD) 2.64%
Frontline (FRO) 2.60%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.31%
Intel (INTC) 2.26%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 2.26%
Nokia (NOK) 1.94%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.84%

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Sold F and CREE

In a running experiment of when and how to sell non-dividend stocks, I've sold two in the last two days, via automated processes: Ford (F) and Cree (CREE), due to both having broken long(er)-term chart trendlines. I am not a chartist - I believe in company fundamentals above all - but there is something appealing about setting a selling point and sticking to it, especially for investments that have no value beyond their trading price.

Here are the charts/trends in detail. First, Ford:



This is an ideal chart, lower-left to upper-right. Ford had plenty of room to run above the trend in 2011, but it is now a $50+ billion company by market cap, which seems like a fair evaluation to me. Hindsight being 20/20, I should have taken all the money I could get my hands on in February 2009 and invested it all in Ford. It's one of my best stock picks ever with a return of 653%.

A not-so-great stock pick was Cree:



The third time was the charm for falling through the floor at $48. There was also a clear floor/ceiling at $60, which of course would have been a better exit point when it crashed through in January 2011. Cree returned -28% from where it was bought in June 2010.

The proceeds from these sales will be used to buy more Baidu (BIDU).

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Stock Of The Month: NOK

I've bought low and sold high in this stock once before...trying to repeat history...

Nokia (NOK)

Positives:
Well-funded ~6% dividend yield.
Low 11 forward P/E.
Plus $10 billion(!) cash-minus-debt on balance sheet.
Essentially a (well-compensated) hardware supplier of Microsoft.

Negatives:
Thin margins and returns on assets/equity.
Slow/shrinking growth.
Best hopes of finishing third in a crowded smartphone field.


Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.29%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 9.69%
Google (GOOG) 6.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 6.45%
Baidu (BIDU) 4.35%
Apache (APA) 4.26%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.19%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, F, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 4.10%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.73%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.55%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.51%
Blackstone (BX) 3.28%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.08%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.07%
Frontline (FRO) 3.01%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.91%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.71%
DuPont (DD) 2.63%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.63%
Intel (INTC) 2.44%
BreitBurn (BBEP) 2.35%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.25%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.13%
Nokia (NOK) 1.88%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.55%
Cree (CREE) 1.03%

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Stocks Of The Month: The Distressed 2011

In preparation for this year's additions, several stocks had to be purged from the portfolio. Borders (BGP), China Real Estate Information Corporation (CRIC), Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), E*Trade (ETFC), and GigaMedia (GIGM) were all underperformers with poor fundamentals - they won't be missed. Also, I took profits in American International Group (AIG) after a pullback/correction.

With MetroPCS (PCS) being the lone survivor of a particularly horrible batch of picks from last year, I seeked higher-quality candidates this time around. No .OB's or .PK's. No eminent bankruptcies. No poisoned balance sheets. Just some solid yet under-appreciated stocks, primed for a bounceback.

Without further ado, I present to you the 2011 edition of "The Distressed":

Electronic Arts (ERTS, -74% from Mar. 2005): game software maker figures to turn around at some point...or get bought out.
ITT Educational Services (ESI, -51% from Feb. 2009): outstanding profitability and margins.
La-Z-Boy (LZB, -74% from Apr. 2002): furniture business in a long slump.
China Nepstar Chain Drugstore (NPD, -81% from Nov. 2007): small ($414M market cap), risky but profitable, yields 6.4%.
White River Capital (RVR, -32% from Feb. 2007): smaller ($64M market cap), thinly traded, yields 5.9%. Subprime(!) auto financier.
Skechers (SKX, -48% from Jun. 2010): footwear maker subject to the most fickle of consumers.
STEC (STEC, -45% from Sep. 2009): data storage is a crowded area, but this could be the next SanDisk.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Apple (AAPL) 12.31%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 10.61%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 7.16%
Google (GOOG) 6.82%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.35%
Baidu (BIDU) 4.34%
The Distressed (C, ERTS, ESI, F, JSDA, LZB, MMI, MSI, NPD, PCS, RVR, SKX, STEC, WFC) 4.18%
Apache (APA) 4.07%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.56%
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) 3.54%
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) 3.48%
Blackstone (BX) 3.13%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.11%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 3.00%
Cherokee (CHKE) 2.96%
Frontline (FRO) 2.96%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.71%
Great Northern Iron (GNI) 2.68%
DuPont (DD) 2.62%
Intel (INTC) 2.45%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 2.34%
BreitBurn (BBEP) 2.31%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.26%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 1.58%
Cree (CREE) 1.07%

Saturday, February 5, 2011

My Current Investing Philosophy

It's been a few years since I've attempted to state my investing philosophy, which has always been a work in progress/moving target/school of hard knocks type of strategy; my portfolio is what it is at any given moment. It's definitely not my intention to do things on the fly, but the market always has new lessons to learn around every corner.

Excuses aside...my intentions are to own stocks that:
  • are long-term, "buy-and-hold" investments;
  • represent great underlying companies and/or valuable assets;
  • have excellence across as many metrics as possible;
  • are cheap by valuation; and
  • pay outstanding, stable, well-funded dividends, or
  • promise extraordinary growth.
Conversely, my intentions are to avoid stocks that:
  • are short-term, "day trader" investments;
  • represent minimal value beyond their stock symbol;
  • have poor metrics by any measure;
  • are expensive by valuation; and
  • pay no or low, unstable, or underfunded dividends, or
  • promise low or no growth.
Seems fairly simple, doesn't it? And yet, I've bought more lousy stocks, and lost more money owning those lousy stocks, than any so-called investor ever should.

February is traditionally my "distressed" month, when I choose a basket of downtrodden stocks in hopes of some of them bouncing back. The ones that do rebound - for example, Ford (F), Blackstone (BX), and Jones Soda (JSDA) - seem obvious in retrospect; the ones that fail seem obvious as well. I think these "distressed" stock results exemplify (in an amplified way) what my investment philosophy should be. Fundamentals always win; fundamentals always matter.

Starting this month, I will attempt to clear the deck of any past failures (as noted before, I do own too many stocks), and use some additional discretion in the stocks I buy and own.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

2010 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

36 stocks.

That's probably 16 or so more than I'd like to own, from a portfolio management standpoint; it's very difficult to keep track of all of them.

On the other hand, I do like most of these stocks - and they collectively returned 21.6% vs. 15.1% for the S&P 500 - so it will be difficult to prune...but I will have to try.

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2010's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

GigaMedia (GIGM)
Bought: Feb @ $3.05
Year-closing price: $1.48 (-52%)
Inferior Chinese online gaming company.

Energy Conversion Devices (ENER)
Bought: Feb @ $7.81
Year-closing price: $4.60 (-41%)
Solar stocks didn't bounce back.

Borders (BGP)
Bought: Feb @ $1.25
Year-closing price: $0.90 (-28%)
Should have sold in April ($3.29 high).

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Bought: Jul @ $315.50
Year-closing price: $257.75 (-18%)
This stock looks very, very cheap right now.

Prospect Capital (PSEC)
Bought: Feb @ $11.83
Year-closing price: $10.80 (-9%)
Will hold on to, as long as the dividend is funded.

Frontline (FRO)
Year-opening price: $27.32
Year-closing price: $25.37 (-7%)
Again, all about the dividend safety.

Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $619.98
Year-closing price: $593.97 (-4%)
Will Android take over tablets like it did smartphones?

BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP)
Bought: Nov @ $20.70
Year-closing price: $20.14 (-3%)
Dividend stock.

Cree (CREE)
Bought: Jun @ $66.60
Year-closing price: $65.89 (-1%)
Up-and-down year.

China Real Estate Information (CRIC)
Bought: Feb @ $9.49
Year-closing price: $9.60 (1%)
Business, fundamentals seem good; might have been early.

Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Bought: Jan @ $17.31, Jun @ $17.16
Year-closing price: $17.92 (4%)
Another dividend stock.

Cherokee (CHKE)
Year-opening price: $17.82
Bought more: Sep @ $18.30
Year-closing price: $18.81 (6%)
Yet another dividend stock.

E*Trade (ETFC)
Bought: Feb @ $15.10
Year-closing price: $16.00 (6%)
Volatile stock; ended up doing little.

Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $13.12
Year-closing price: $14.15 (8%)
Relatively quiet year after a crazy 2009.

Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM)
Year-opening price: $14.29
Bought more: Apr @ $14.29
Year-closing price: $15.45 (8%)
My favorite dividend stock.

American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $6.00
Year-closing price: $6.77 (13%)
Thinly-traded tech stock flies under the radar.

Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)
Bought: Mar @ $17.95
Year-closing price: $20.52 (14%)
Sleepy dividend stock.

Vodafone (VOD)
Year-opening price: $23.09
Year-closing price: $26.44 (15%)
Verizon Wireless' better half.

Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $26.99
Year-closing price: $30.99 (15%)
Back on solid ground after a few rough years.

Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $103.17
Bought more: Sep @ $98.62
Year-closing price: $119.23 (16%)
The best-run oil and gas company out there.

Motorola (MOT)
Year-opening price: $7.76
Year-closing price: $9.07 (17%)
Rescued by Android.

Intel (INTC)
Bought: Aug @ $17.88
Year-closing price: $21.30 (18%)
Remains a very cheap stock.

McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $62.44
Year-closing price: $76.76 (23%)
The finest restaraunter in the world.

Ace Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $50.40
Year-closing price: $62.25 (24%)
A good year for reinsurance.

Baidu (BIDU)
Bought: Jun @ $75.93, Oct @ $101.59
Year-closing price: $96.53 (27%)
The Chinese Google shows no signs of slowing down.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
Bought: Mar @ $90.47
Year-closing price: $126.54 (40%)
This is a dividend stock?

Citigroup (C)
Year-opening price: $3.31
Year-closing price: $4.73 (43%)
Still hard to trust this bank.

Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $32.91
Year-closing price: $48.74 (48%)
Copper continues its run.

DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $33.67
Year-closing price: $49.88 (48%)
208-year-old company has amazing year.

F5 Networks (FFIV)
Bought: Aug @ $87.70
Year-closing price: $130.16 (48%)
My best growth-stock pick of 2010.

Great Northern Iron (GNI)
Year-opening price: $94.00
Year-closing price: $143.00 (52%)
This is a dividend stock???

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $210.73
Year-closing price: $322.56 (53%)
iPad, iPhone fuel growth for foreseeable future.

Ford (F)
Year-opening price: $10.00
Year-closing price: $16.79 (68%)
The comeback is complete.

American International Group (AIG)
Year-opening price: $29.98
Year-closing price: $57.62 (92%)
Quite possibly, the biggest bailout-beneficiary.

MetroPCS (PCS)
Bought: Feb @ $6.05
Year-closing price: $12.63 (109%)
Second-tier wireless telecom figures to be bought out soon.

Jones Soda (JSDA)
Year-opening price: $0.43
Year-closing price: $1.19 (177%)
Wouldn't bet on a repeat year in 2011.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

2010 Stock Recap: The Departed

Another year, another yearly stock review post!

I sold 12 stocks in 2010 after selling just 1 in 2009, so "The Departed" makes its return this year. Having a chance to look back, it's striking not just how poor my selling was, but also that most of these stocks simply should have never been bought in the first place.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2010's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:

Biovail (BVF)
Year-opening price: $13.96
Sold: Jun @ $16.53 (18%)
Stock-closing price: $26.35 (89%)
Taken out by Valeant Pharmaceuticals. I sold too early.

Ambac (ABKFQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.60
Sold: Aug @ $0.67 (11%)
Year-closing price: $0.11 (-82%)
Far and away, my best sell of the year.

Terra Nitrogen (TNH)
Year-opening price: $98.63
Sold: Feb @ $100.50 (2%)
Year-closing price: $108.11 (10%)
Once-skipped, extremely lumpy dividend sealed its fate.

Tidewater (TDW)
Year-opening price: $47.95
Sold: Sep @ $43.98 (-8%)
Year-closing price: $53.84 (12%)
Boring stock had a nice fall rally.

Tesoro (TSO)
Year-opening price: $13.55
Sold: Feb @ $11.81 (-13%)
Year-closing price: $18.54 (37%)
Suspended dividend = removed from portfolio. Sold very near year's low.

Motors Liquidation (MTLQQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.47
Sold: Aug @ $0.38 (-18%)
Year-closing price: $0.09 (-81%)
Held on to the ghost of GM for far too long.

PDL BioPharma (PDLI)
Year-opening price: $6.86
Sold: Sep @ $5.16 (-25%)
Year-closing price: $6.23 (-9%)
Determined to be an unstable/at-risk dividend.

Palm (PALM)
Year-opening price: $10.21
Sold/Stock-closing price: $5.70 (-44%)
Rescued by Hewlett-Packard. A low-quality "Distressed" pick.

Blockbuster (BLOAQ.PK)
Year-opening price: $0.39
Sold: Aug @ $0.17 (-56%)
Year-closing price: $0.16 (-59%)
Another low-quality "Distressed" pick. Going to zero.

Jackson Hewitt (JTX)
Year-opening price: $2.47
Sold: Sep @ $0.98 (-60%)
Year-closing price: $2.17 (-12%)
Made a furious "comeback" right after I sold it.

Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB)
Year-opening price: $1.18
Sold: Aug @ $0.37 (-69%)
Year-closing price: $0.30 (-75%)
Another low-quality "Distressed" pick. Going to zero.

YRC Worldwide (YRCW)
Year-opening price: $21.00
Sold: Oct @ $4.14 (-80%)
Year-closing price: $3.72 (-83%)
The hits just keep on coming, don't they?