Monday, March 16, 2020

The Total Re-Org

Inspired by this Epsilon Theory post by Rusty Guinn: I'm imagining the brave new world brought upon us by the pandemic. Guinn's premise is that the post-recovery world will not be exactly like it was before; some of the economic and social changes we are experiencing now will become part of the new "normal".

I will add to that: some of the long-term trends we are seeing will be accelerated, and some of the industries facing persistent upheaval/disruption will be pushed over the brink.  Out of both necessity and preference, we are all facing a total re-org of our daily lives.

Here is my running list of winning and losing industries.  I will revisit and update on an ongoing basis.

Winners:
  • 5G
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Automation
  • Brick-and-mortar retail that includes fresh food
  • Cloud computing
  • E-commerce
  • Home cleaning products/services
  • Home delivery services
  • the "Internet of things"
  • Personal health and hygiene products/services
  • Video conferencing
  • Video game consoles/services
  • Video streaming services

Losers:
  • Brick-and-mortar retail without fresh food and online storefront (e.g. department stores)
  • Destination-based entertainment (e.g. theme parks)
  • Hospitality
  • Human transports
  • In-person conferences, fairs, and festivals
  • In-person live events (e.g. concerts, sports)
  • Internal combustion engine automobiles and automobile services/infrastructure
  • Oil and oil services/infrastructure
  • Office- and retail-based REITs