In case you missed it, a thankfully terse "Departed" recap can be found here.
2017 was a good year. My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%). It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%). I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.
We're going to keep 2018 just like 2017: as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Priceline Group (PCLN)
Bought: Aug @ $2044.00
Year-closing price: $1737.74 (-15%)
Bought at the peak. Will it return to previously uninterrupted growth?
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Bought: Oct @ $106.90
Year-closing price: $105.22 (-2%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part one.
Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $55.52
Year-closing price: $57.43 (3%)
Two sub-par years in a row. May be past its prime.
Comcast (CMCSA)
Bought: Feb @ $37.72
Year-closing price: $40.05 (6%)
Slow and steady growth. Cable cord-cutting seems like more of a problem than it actually is.
Chubb Limited (CB)
Year-opening price: $132.12
Year-closing price: $146.13 (11%)
My longest-held stock (since 2004); in a word, consistent.
CSX (CSX)
Bought: Mar @ $49.21
Year-closing price: $55.01 (12%)
Chaotic year. Precision Scheduled Railroading now in place. R.I.P. Hunter Harrison.
Visa (V)
Bought: Aug @ $101.39
Year-closing price: $114.02 (12%)
The best proxy for commerce that money can buy.
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $160.11
Year-closing price: $186.12 (16%)
The finest (brick and mortar) retailer in the world.
Waste Management (WM)
Year-opening price: $70.91
Bought more: Dec @ $82.38
Year-closing price: $86.30 (21%)
Hot garbage.
Union Pacific (UNP)
Bought: Mar @ $110.07
Year-closing price: $134.10 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part two.
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $67.40
Year-closing price: $82.50 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part three.
Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $50.83
Year-closing price: $62.55 (23%)
A nice bounceback year. Adidas is the new competition.
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Bought: Aug @ $115.54
Year-closing price: $144.90 (25%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part four.
American Water Works (AWK)
Year-opening price: $72.36
Year-closing price: $91.49 (26%)
Finally, a year which they underperformed Aqua America (albeit slightly).
Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $36.27
Year-closing price: $46.16 (27%)
Has been surpassed by NVIDIA, but will still make lots of money.
Aqua America (WTR)
Year-opening price: $30.04
Year-closing price: $39.23 (31%)
Finally, a year which they outperformed American Water Works (albeit slightly).
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $792.45
Bought more: Feb @ $815.00
Year-closing price: $1053.40 (33%)
The best proxy for tech that money can buy. Automated driving will become a(nother) cash cow.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Bought: Mar @ $47.13
Year-closing price: $63.32 (34%)
Well positioned for future augmented reality/virtual growth opportunities.
BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $380.54
Bought more: Nov @ $469.43
Year-closing price: $513.71 (35%)
Will be owned as long as it continues years like this.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $62.14
Bought more: Nov @ $83.28
Year-closing price: $85.54 (38%)
The Satya Nadella winning streak continues.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Year-opening price: $160.04
Bought more: Nov @ $199.20
Year-closing price: $220.46 (38%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.
Autodesk (ADSK)
Year-opening price: $74.01
Year-closing price: $104.83 (42%)
The remainder of my 3D printing thesis; should have known that software is all that matters.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $213.69
Bought more: Jan @ $214.75, Feb @ $248.34, Mar @ $249.71, Apr @ $297.00, May @ $324.07, Jul @ $347.24, Aug @ $346.80, Sep @ $353.80, Oct @ $335.90, Nov @ $300.00, Dec @ $306.26
Year-closing price: $311.35 (46%)
Elon Musk believes his Model 3 will change the world. Don't doubt him.
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $115.82
Bought more: Dec @ $172.45
Year-closing price: $169.23 (46%)
Will inevitably become the world's first trillion dollar company.
Salesforce (CRM)
Year-opening price: $68.46
Year-closing price: $102.23 (49%)
Software-as-a-service, part one.
Facebook (FB)
Year-opening price: $115.05
Bought: Feb @ $133.23
Year-closing price: $176.46 (53%)
Along with Google, monetizes the internet better than anyone else.
Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $749.87
Bought more: Feb @ $836.59, Mar @ $853.08, Aug @ $999.47, Oct @ $958.00
Year-closing price: $1169.47 (56%)
Having wrecked traditional retail, incredibly well positioned to dominate the next decade.
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Year-opening price: $102.95
Year-closing price: $175.24 (70%)
Software-as-a-service, part two.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $211.39
Year-closing price: $364.94 (73%)
A company without peers.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $106.74
Bought more: Jan @ $103.58, Mar @ $102.27, Apr @ $103.17, May @ $105.55, Jul @ $141.90, Aug @ $164.49, Sep @ $167.93, Oct @ $179.55, Nov @ $206.20, Dec @ $200.00
Year-closing price: $193.50 (81%)
The best chipmaker in the world. A quadruple-threat of deep learning, automated driving, virtual reality, and datacenters.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
Saturday, December 30, 2017
2017 Stock Recap: The Departed
A tradition unlike any other...
2017 was a good year. My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%). It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%). I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.
As most successful years go, there were not many stocks sold - just 6 - but they were significant in terms of both capital losses, and giving up the ghost on some ill-advised investment decisions.
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $16.30
Sold: Feb @ $16.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $24.01 (47%)
A rising tide lifts all boats. Third fiddle to Facebook and Google in social media.
Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $16.54
Bought more: Jun @ $27.83
Sold: Aug @ $22.59 (37%)
Year-closing price: $19.96 (21%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part one.
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA)
Bought: Jan @ $254.94
Sold: Oct @ $226.93 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $223.66 (-12%)
Growth slowing; got in at the wrong time (i.e. late).
ExOne (XONE)
Year-opening price: $10.35
Sold: Aug @ $9.70 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $8.40 (-19%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part two.
3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $13.29
Sold: Aug @ $13.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $8.64 (-35%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part three.
Under Armour (UAA)
Year-opening price: $29.05
Sold: Feb @ $21.60 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $14.43 (-50%)
In free-fall; showing no signs of a turnaround anytime soon.
2017 was a good year. My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%). It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%). I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.
As most successful years go, there were not many stocks sold - just 6 - but they were significant in terms of both capital losses, and giving up the ghost on some ill-advised investment decisions.
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $16.30
Sold: Feb @ $16.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $24.01 (47%)
A rising tide lifts all boats. Third fiddle to Facebook and Google in social media.
Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $16.54
Bought more: Jun @ $27.83
Sold: Aug @ $22.59 (37%)
Year-closing price: $19.96 (21%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part one.
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA)
Bought: Jan @ $254.94
Sold: Oct @ $226.93 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $223.66 (-12%)
Growth slowing; got in at the wrong time (i.e. late).
ExOne (XONE)
Year-opening price: $10.35
Sold: Aug @ $9.70 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $8.40 (-19%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part two.
3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $13.29
Sold: Aug @ $13.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $8.64 (-35%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part three.
Under Armour (UAA)
Year-opening price: $29.05
Sold: Feb @ $21.60 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $14.43 (-50%)
In free-fall; showing no signs of a turnaround anytime soon.
Monday, December 4, 2017
Stocks Of The Month: AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, WM
(you already know about NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA))
(and Apple (AAPL) deserves some of that iPhone X money)
(but what if I told you...that one of my best stocks is...garbage?)
Waste Management (WM) has outperformed the market over the short and long term...
...while paying a consistently growing dividend (currently yielding 2.1%); growing $14B in revenue at 7%, and earnings at 26%; and showing excellent profit (9%) and operating (18%) margins, return on assets (8%), return on equity (24%), and free cash flow of $1.6B. Simply put, WM checks all the boxes. (or, it's some real hot trash)
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 14.83%
Apple (AAPL) 11.94%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.49%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.96%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.84%
Facebook (FB) 5.57%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.97%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.63%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.41%
Nike (NKE) 2.36%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.08%
Intel (INTC) 2.04%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.99%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.98%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.93%
Visa (V) 1.92%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.86%
Waste Management (WM) 1.83%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.54%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.47%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.97%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.89%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.71%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.59%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.58%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.54%
CSX (CSX) 0.53%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.52%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.50%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.47%
(and Apple (AAPL) deserves some of that iPhone X money)
(but what if I told you...that one of my best stocks is...garbage?)
Waste Management (WM) has outperformed the market over the short and long term...
 |
| WM 2 yr |
 |
| WM 30 yr |
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 14.83%
Apple (AAPL) 11.94%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.49%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.96%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.84%
Facebook (FB) 5.57%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.97%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.63%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.41%
Nike (NKE) 2.36%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.08%
Intel (INTC) 2.04%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.99%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.98%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.93%
Visa (V) 1.92%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.86%
Waste Management (WM) 1.83%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.54%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.47%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.97%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.89%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.71%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.59%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.58%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.54%
CSX (CSX) 0.53%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.52%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.50%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.47%
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Stocks Of The Month: BLK, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA
Aside from my ongoing monthly accumulation of additional shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), I'm continuing to add to my favorite dividend stocks to ensure they continue to be a significant portion of my portfolio. This month, I chose BlackRock (BLK) with its 2.1% dividend yield and steady outperformance of the market; and the other half of "Wintel" that I didn't buy last month: Microsoft (MSFT).
Yes, they still have the old cash cows of Windows and Office - otherwise, Microsoft has reinvented itself in the past 3 years. They make cool hardware (Surface, HoloLens). They have a significant presence in the cloud (Azure). Most importantly, their CEO is once again a geek visionary (Satya Nadella), and the stock has responded to his leadership by hitting all-time highs. With revenues of $90B growing at 13%, +$40B cash minus debt, free cash flow of $20B, and an extremely safe 2.0% dividend yield, Microsoft has room to grow.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 14.55%
Apple (AAPL) 11.78%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.23%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 9.67%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.11%
Facebook (FB) 5.79%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.11%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.72%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.60%
Nike (NKE) 2.18%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.14%
Intel (INTC) 2.12%
Visa (V) 1.98%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.90%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.89%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.85%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.76%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.69%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.29%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.11%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.78%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.69%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.64%
Waste Management (WM) 0.56%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.52%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.50%
CSX (CSX) 0.47%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.45%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.44%
Yes, they still have the old cash cows of Windows and Office - otherwise, Microsoft has reinvented itself in the past 3 years. They make cool hardware (Surface, HoloLens). They have a significant presence in the cloud (Azure). Most importantly, their CEO is once again a geek visionary (Satya Nadella), and the stock has responded to his leadership by hitting all-time highs. With revenues of $90B growing at 13%, +$40B cash minus debt, free cash flow of $20B, and an extremely safe 2.0% dividend yield, Microsoft has room to grow.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 14.55%
Apple (AAPL) 11.78%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.23%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 9.67%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.11%
Facebook (FB) 5.79%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.11%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.72%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.60%
Nike (NKE) 2.18%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.14%
Intel (INTC) 2.12%
Visa (V) 1.98%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.90%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.89%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.85%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.76%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.69%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.29%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.11%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.78%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.69%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.64%
Waste Management (WM) 0.56%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.52%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.50%
CSX (CSX) 0.47%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.45%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.44%
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Stocks Of The Month: AMZN, INTC, KSU, NVDA, TSLA
It is a busy month for the portfolio. Gone is ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA), bought in January of this year, and sold at a 12% loss.
Bought are the usual suspects in NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA); a recent repeat in Amazon (AMZN); a new piece on the Ticket To Ride playing board in Kansas City Southern (KSU); and the stock I really want to write about: Intel (INTC).
Last bought way back in 2010(!), Intel has quietly cranked out a 120% gain since. They are not the technological leader by raw processing horsepower anymore - NVIDIA's GPUs hold that title - but they are ubiquitous. If you need a silicon chip (and chances are that you do), Intel has a silicon chip for you. With $62B in revenue growing at 9%, and a dividend yield of 2.7%, Intel is an easy stock to own.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 17.25%
Apple (AAPL) 11.28%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.33%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.55%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.03%
Facebook (FB) 5.88%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.09%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.27%
Nike (NKE) 2.16%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.12%
Visa (V) 2.01%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.98%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.93%
Intel (INTC) 1.93%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.89%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.82%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.78%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.36%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.15%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.08%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.90%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.69%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.68%
Waste Management (WM) 0.58%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.57%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.54%
CSX (CSX) 0.51%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.47%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.47%
Bought are the usual suspects in NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA); a recent repeat in Amazon (AMZN); a new piece on the Ticket To Ride playing board in Kansas City Southern (KSU); and the stock I really want to write about: Intel (INTC).
Last bought way back in 2010(!), Intel has quietly cranked out a 120% gain since. They are not the technological leader by raw processing horsepower anymore - NVIDIA's GPUs hold that title - but they are ubiquitous. If you need a silicon chip (and chances are that you do), Intel has a silicon chip for you. With $62B in revenue growing at 9%, and a dividend yield of 2.7%, Intel is an easy stock to own.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 17.25%
Apple (AAPL) 11.28%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.33%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.55%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.03%
Facebook (FB) 5.88%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.09%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.27%
Nike (NKE) 2.16%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.12%
Visa (V) 2.01%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.98%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.93%
Intel (INTC) 1.93%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.89%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.82%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.78%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.36%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.15%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.08%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.90%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.69%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.68%
Waste Management (WM) 0.58%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.57%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.54%
CSX (CSX) 0.51%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.47%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.47%
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Stocks Of The Month: NVDA, TSLA, UNH
Another month, another purchase of Telsa (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA). Tesla is about 5% short of the goal allocation, while NVIDIA is about 10% short (yikes).
I do not want to ignore my dividend-paying stocks; so with Chubb Limited (CB) as the goal allocation of about 2% each, I bought some more UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to match. I will be buying more of BlackRock (BLK), Comcast (CMCSA), and Intel (INTC) in future months - only Chubb is officially a buy as it is the marker for the entire dividend stock group.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 17.33%
Apple (AAPL) 12.08%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.32%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.93%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 7.63%
Facebook (FB) 6.03%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.97%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.40%
Nike (NKE) 2.27%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.18%
Visa (V) 2.00%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.96%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.94%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.91%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.89%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.79%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.34%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.11%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.07%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.97%
Intel (INTC) 0.82%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.72%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.68%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.57%
Waste Management (WM) 0.57%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.51%
CSX (CSX) 0.49%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.44%
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 0.36%
I do not want to ignore my dividend-paying stocks; so with Chubb Limited (CB) as the goal allocation of about 2% each, I bought some more UnitedHealth Group (UNH) to match. I will be buying more of BlackRock (BLK), Comcast (CMCSA), and Intel (INTC) in future months - only Chubb is officially a buy as it is the marker for the entire dividend stock group.
Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 17.33%
Apple (AAPL) 12.08%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.32%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.93%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 7.63%
Facebook (FB) 6.03%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.97%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.40%
Nike (NKE) 2.27%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.18%
Visa (V) 2.00%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.96%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.94%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.91%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.89%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.79%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.34%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.11%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.07%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.97%
Intel (INTC) 0.82%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.72%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.68%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.57%
Waste Management (WM) 0.57%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.56%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.51%
CSX (CSX) 0.49%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.44%
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 0.36%
Tuesday, August 8, 2017
Capitulation In The Third Dimension: Sold DDD, SSYS, XONE; Bought NSC, PCLN, V
Pop quiz: which group of stocks would you rather own?
These 3...
...or these 3?
I don't know what the future of the 3D printing industry is. It could be the next wave of manufacturing, or it could be relegated to hobbyists and prototypers, or somewhere in between. I do know that the top 3 stocks are demonstrably awful stocks - the worst bit of "investing" I've participated in since the destined-for-bankruptcy Delphi - while the bottom 3 stocks are demonstrably good stocks.
So I've sold 3D Systems (DDD), Stratasys (SSYS), and ExOne (XONE); bought Norfolk Southern (NSC), Priceline (PCLN), and Visa (V); and have a substantial amount of cash (7%) to use wisely.
I'm going to make my bold forward bets on companies like Tesla (TSLA), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN); nobody's giving away extra money for degree-of-difficulty portfolios.
These 3...
...or these 3?
I don't know what the future of the 3D printing industry is. It could be the next wave of manufacturing, or it could be relegated to hobbyists and prototypers, or somewhere in between. I do know that the top 3 stocks are demonstrably awful stocks - the worst bit of "investing" I've participated in since the destined-for-bankruptcy Delphi - while the bottom 3 stocks are demonstrably good stocks.
So I've sold 3D Systems (DDD), Stratasys (SSYS), and ExOne (XONE); bought Norfolk Southern (NSC), Priceline (PCLN), and Visa (V); and have a substantial amount of cash (7%) to use wisely.
I'm going to make my bold forward bets on companies like Tesla (TSLA), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN); nobody's giving away extra money for degree-of-difficulty portfolios.
Thursday, August 3, 2017
Stocks Of The Month: AMZN, NVDA, TSLA
This month I bought more of Telsa (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA), and will be doing so for the foreseeable future. Additionally, I bought more of Amazon (AMZN) after their "disappointing" quarterly results. I'll be mixing in some of Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), and Microsoft (MSFT) in future months as well.
Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 16.77%
Apple (AAPL) 11.76%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.70%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.03%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 7.11%
3D Systems (DDD) 6.49%
Facebook (FB) 6.04%
Stratasys (SSYS) 4.77%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.68%
Nike (NKE) 2.61%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.33%
Chubb Limited (CB) 2.12%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.08%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.94%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.94%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.35%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.12%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.09%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.06%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.97%
Intel (INTC) 0.86%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.71%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.69%
ExOne (XONE) 0.65%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.58%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.57%
Waste Management (WM) 0.57%
CSX (CSX) 0.50%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.44%
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 0.41%
Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Tesla (TSLA) 16.77%
Apple (AAPL) 11.76%
Amazon (AMZN) 10.70%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 8.03%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 7.11%
3D Systems (DDD) 6.49%
Facebook (FB) 6.04%
Stratasys (SSYS) 4.77%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.68%
Nike (NKE) 2.61%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.33%
Chubb Limited (CB) 2.12%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.08%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.94%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.94%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.35%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.12%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.09%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.06%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.97%
Intel (INTC) 0.86%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.71%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.69%
ExOne (XONE) 0.65%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.58%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.57%
Waste Management (WM) 0.57%
CSX (CSX) 0.50%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.44%
ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) 0.41%
Monday, July 10, 2017
Searching With My Good Eye Closed: 125 Stocks That I Don't Own, And Wish I Could (2017 Edition)
If I took you for a ride, would you take it wrong?
Or would you make it right, make it right?
Looking for a pedestal that I can put you on
And be on my way, on my way
Fun fact: I have 12 "watchlists", broken out by sector, which in total contain 665 stocks. These watchlists mostly consist of stocks that at some point in time made me say "wow, that is interesting", followed by me forgetting about them entirely, followed by me looking at them and saying "what is this, and why is it here?"
I also have a 13th watchlist entitled "Short List" consisting of the stocks that I actually pay attention to, and have varying degrees of intent for addition to my portfolio in the future.
I have completed the yearly effort to update the "Short List" by combing through all 13 watchlists, looking for one particular characteristic: the stock must have consistently outperformed the market, across several historical time horizons.
The following 125 stocks made the cut. They may have questionable valuation/financials, or lack upside due to shear size, or participate in a boring business, or represent additional risks going forward; but if the point of investing in individual stocks is to beat the broader market, all of these stocks have a history of doing exactly just that...which may be the most fundamental characteristic of all.
I will track these and post an update one year from now. Find out how last year's choices performed here.
Or would you make it right, make it right?
Looking for a pedestal that I can put you on
And be on my way, on my way
Fun fact: I have 12 "watchlists", broken out by sector, which in total contain 665 stocks. These watchlists mostly consist of stocks that at some point in time made me say "wow, that is interesting", followed by me forgetting about them entirely, followed by me looking at them and saying "what is this, and why is it here?"
I also have a 13th watchlist entitled "Short List" consisting of the stocks that I actually pay attention to, and have varying degrees of intent for addition to my portfolio in the future.
I have completed the yearly effort to update the "Short List" by combing through all 13 watchlists, looking for one particular characteristic: the stock must have consistently outperformed the market, across several historical time horizons.
The following 125 stocks made the cut. They may have questionable valuation/financials, or lack upside due to shear size, or participate in a boring business, or represent additional risks going forward; but if the point of investing in individual stocks is to beat the broader market, all of these stocks have a history of doing exactly just that...which may be the most fundamental characteristic of all.
I will track these and post an update one year from now. Find out how last year's choices performed here.
NAME
|
SYMBOL
|
CURRENT MKT CAP
|
# YEARS ON LIST
|
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
|
360.26B
|
-
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
|
357.04B
|
1
|
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
|
333.39B
|
-
|
|
Bank of America Corporation
|
247.11B
|
-
|
|
Visa Inc.
|
216.55B
|
1
|
|
Oracle Corporation
|
204.15B
|
-
|
|
Citigroup Inc.
|
186.97B
|
-
|
|
The Home Depot, Inc.
|
182.00B
|
1
|
|
McDonald's Corporation
|
127.37B
|
-
|
|
3M Company
|
125.18B
|
1
|
|
The Boeing Company
|
122.15B
|
-
|
|
Medtronic plc
|
119.54B
|
1
|
|
AbbVie Inc.
|
114.64B
|
1
|
|
Celgene Corporation
|
103.51B
|
-
|
|
Broadcom Limited
|
102.77B
|
1
|
|
Honeywell International Inc.
|
102.24B
|
1
|
|
The Priceline Group Inc.
|
94.28B
|
1
|
|
Morgan Stanley
|
85.18B
|
-
|
|
The Dow Chemical Company
|
78.05B
|
-
|
|
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and
Company
|
71.12B
|
-
|
|
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
|
69.44B
|
1
|
|
HDFC Bank Limited
|
66.08B
|
1
|
|
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
|
64.83B
|
-
|
|
Netflix, Inc.
|
64.73B
|
1
|
|
Caterpillar Inc.
|
62.99B
|
-
|
|
FedEx Corporation
|
58.42B
|
-
|
|
The Bank of New York Mellon
Corporation
|
53.81B
|
-
|
|
Stryker Corporation
|
52.75B
|
1
|
|
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
52.50B
|
-
|
|
Aetna Inc.
|
51.04B
|
-
|
|
Anthem, Inc.
|
50.77B
|
-
|
|
Carnival Corporation
|
47.69B
|
-
|
|
Becton, Dickinson and Company
|
44.97B
|
1
|
|
Cigna Corporation
|
43.42B
|
-
|
|
CME Group Inc.
|
42.42B
|
1
|
|
Delta Air Lines, Inc.
|
40.64B
|
-
|
|
Deere & Company
|
40.31B
|
-
|
|
The Blackstone Group L.P.
|
40.24B
|
-
|
|
Cognizant Technology Solutions
Corporation
|
39.44B
|
-
|
|
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
|
39.03B
|
1
|
|
Southwest Airlines Co.
|
38.84B
|
1
|
|
NetEase, Inc.
|
38.83B
|
1
|
|
Boston Scientific Corporation
|
37.78B
|
1
|
|
Constellation Brands, Inc.
|
37.71B
|
1
|
|
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
|
36.76B
|
-
|
|
Norfolk Southern Corporation
|
35.45B
|
-
|
|
Aon plc
|
35.40B
|
1
|
|
Humana Inc.
|
34.38B
|
-
|
|
State Street Corporation
|
34.19B
|
-
|
|
Electronic Arts Inc.
|
33.26B
|
1
|
|
PPG Industries, Inc.
|
28.44B
|
-
|
|
Restaurant Brands International
Inc.
|
28.39B
|
-
|
|
Corning Incorporated
|
27.86B
|
-
|
|
Cummins Inc.
|
27.57B
|
-
|
|
Franklin Resources, Inc.
|
25.49B
|
-
|
|
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation
|
24.79B
|
1
|
|
Moody's Corporation
|
23.58B
|
-
|
|
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
|
23.43B
|
-
|
|
Expedia, Inc.
|
22.61B
|
1
|
|
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
|
22.18B
|
-
|
|
Republic Services, Inc.
|
21.67B
|
1
|
|
Rockwell Automation Inc.
|
21.19B
|
-
|
|
ServiceNow, Inc.
|
18.06B
|
-
|
|
Best Buy Co., Inc.
|
17.65B
|
-
|
|
Red Hat, Inc.
|
17.14B
|
-
|
|
Waste Connections, Inc.
|
17.13B
|
1
|
|
Equifax Inc.
|
16.63B
|
1
|
|
Weibo Corporation
|
15.18B
|
1
|
|
TransDigm Group Incorporated
|
13.87B
|
1
|
|
Celanese Corporation
|
13.56B
|
-
|
|
Comerica Incorporated
|
13.21B
|
-
|
|
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
|
12.63B
|
-
|
|
Align Technology, Inc.
|
12.21B
|
1
|
|
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.
|
12.16B
|
-
|
|
Nasdaq, Inc.
|
11.83B
|
1
|
|
Raymond James Financial, Inc.
|
11.33B
|
-
|
|
Total System Services, Inc.
|
10.80B
|
1
|
|
Ansys, Inc.
|
10.46B
|
-
|
|
NVR, Inc.
|
9.36B
|
1
|
|
Sociedad QuÃmica y Minera de Chile
S.A.
|
9.25B
|
1
|
|
Torchmark Corporation
|
9.08B
|
1
|
|
Aluminum Corporation Of China
Limited
|
8.96B
|
-
|
|
CoStar Group, Inc.
|
8.87B
|
-
|
|
Square, Inc.
|
8.83B
|
-
|
|
Westinghouse Air Brake
Technologies Corporation
|
8.73B
|
-
|
|
Veeva Systems Inc.
|
8.71B
|
-
|
|
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
|
8.69B
|
1
|
|
Zillow Group, Inc.
|
8.54B
|
1
|
|
IAC/InterActiveCorp
|
8.07B
|
-
|
|
Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
|
8.04B
|
1
|
|
PulteGroup, Inc.
|
7.87B
|
-
|
|
AGNC Investment Corp.
|
7.60B
|
-
|
|
Berry Global Group, Inc.
|
7.46B
|
1
|
|
Copart, Inc.
|
7.13B
|
1
|
|
XPO Logistics, Inc.
|
7.12B
|
-
|
|
Nordson Corporation
|
6.96B
|
1
|
|
H&R Block, Inc.
|
6.50B
|
-
|
|
Erie Indemnity Company
|
6.47B
|
1
|
|
HEICO Corporation
|
5.88B
|
1
|
|
Brunswick Corporation
|
5.58B
|
-
|
|
Universal Display Corporation
|
5.23B
|
1
|
|
Guidewire Software, Inc.
|
5.21B
|
-
|
|
Elbit Systems Ltd.
|
5.19B
|
-
|
|
Charles River Laboratories
International, Inc.
|
4.78B
|
1
|
|
Skechers U.S.A., Inc.
|
4.63B
|
-
|
|
Pegasystems, Inc.
|
4.54B
|
1
|
|
Fair Isaac Corporation
|
4.35B
|
-
|
|
Ubiquiti Networks, Inc.
|
4.21B
|
1
|
|
Paycom Software, Inc.
|
4.02B
|
1
|
|
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
|
3.77B
|
-
|
|
Proofpoint, Inc.
|
3.75B
|
1
|
|
Regal Beloit Corporation
|
3.74B
|
-
|
|
Ellie Mae, Inc.
|
3.68B
|
1
|
|
Healthcare Services Group, Inc.
|
3.39B
|
1
|
|
Barnes Group Inc.
|
3.19B
|
-
|
|
LCI Industries
|
2.50B
|
1
|
|
iRobot Corporation
|
2.29B
|
-
|
|
II-VI Incorporated
|
2.24B
|
-
|
|
Mercury Systems, Inc.
|
2.09B
|
-
|
|
Green Dot Corporation
|
1.96B
|
1
|
|
Fabrinet
|
1.64B
|
-
|
|
Callidus Software Inc.
|
1.51B
|
1
|
|
PetMed Express, Inc.
|
0.84B
|
-
|
|
National Presto Industries, Inc.
|
0.78B
|
-
|
|
Hooker Furniture Corporation
|
0.48B
|
-
|
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