In case you missed it, a thankfully terse "Departed" recap can be found here.
2017 was a good year. My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%). It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%). I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.
We're going to keep 2018 just like 2017: as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Priceline Group (PCLN)
Bought: Aug @ $2044.00
Year-closing price: $1737.74 (-15%)
Bought at the peak. Will it return to previously uninterrupted growth?
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Bought: Oct @ $106.90
Year-closing price: $105.22 (-2%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part one.
Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $55.52
Year-closing price: $57.43 (3%)
Two sub-par years in a row. May be past its prime.
Comcast (CMCSA)
Bought: Feb @ $37.72
Year-closing price: $40.05 (6%)
Slow and steady growth. Cable cord-cutting seems like more of a problem than it actually is.
Chubb Limited (CB)
Year-opening price: $132.12
Year-closing price: $146.13 (11%)
My longest-held stock (since 2004); in a word, consistent.
CSX (CSX)
Bought: Mar @ $49.21
Year-closing price: $55.01 (12%)
Chaotic year. Precision Scheduled Railroading now in place. R.I.P. Hunter Harrison.
Visa (V)
Bought: Aug @ $101.39
Year-closing price: $114.02 (12%)
The best proxy for commerce that money can buy.
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $160.11
Year-closing price: $186.12 (16%)
The finest (brick and mortar) retailer in the world.
Waste Management (WM)
Year-opening price: $70.91
Bought more: Dec @ $82.38
Year-closing price: $86.30 (21%)
Hot garbage.
Union Pacific (UNP)
Bought: Mar @ $110.07
Year-closing price: $134.10 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part two.
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $67.40
Year-closing price: $82.50 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part three.
Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $50.83
Year-closing price: $62.55 (23%)
A nice bounceback year. Adidas is the new competition.
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Bought: Aug @ $115.54
Year-closing price: $144.90 (25%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part four.
American Water Works (AWK)
Year-opening price: $72.36
Year-closing price: $91.49 (26%)
Finally, a year which they underperformed Aqua America (albeit slightly).
Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $36.27
Year-closing price: $46.16 (27%)
Has been surpassed by NVIDIA, but will still make lots of money.
Aqua America (WTR)
Year-opening price: $30.04
Year-closing price: $39.23 (31%)
Finally, a year which they outperformed American Water Works (albeit slightly).
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $792.45
Bought more: Feb @ $815.00
Year-closing price: $1053.40 (33%)
The best proxy for tech that money can buy. Automated driving will become a(nother) cash cow.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Bought: Mar @ $47.13
Year-closing price: $63.32 (34%)
Well positioned for future augmented reality/virtual growth opportunities.
BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $380.54
Bought more: Nov @ $469.43
Year-closing price: $513.71 (35%)
Will be owned as long as it continues years like this.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $62.14
Bought more: Nov @ $83.28
Year-closing price: $85.54 (38%)
The Satya Nadella winning streak continues.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Year-opening price: $160.04
Bought more: Nov @ $199.20
Year-closing price: $220.46 (38%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.
Autodesk (ADSK)
Year-opening price: $74.01
Year-closing price: $104.83 (42%)
The remainder of my 3D printing thesis; should have known that software is all that matters.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $213.69
Bought more: Jan @ $214.75, Feb @ $248.34, Mar @ $249.71, Apr @ $297.00, May @ $324.07, Jul @ $347.24, Aug @ $346.80, Sep @ $353.80, Oct @ $335.90, Nov @ $300.00, Dec @ $306.26
Year-closing price: $311.35 (46%)
Elon Musk believes his Model 3 will change the world. Don't doubt him.
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $115.82
Bought more: Dec @ $172.45
Year-closing price: $169.23 (46%)
Will inevitably become the world's first trillion dollar company.
Salesforce (CRM)
Year-opening price: $68.46
Year-closing price: $102.23 (49%)
Software-as-a-service, part one.
Facebook (FB)
Year-opening price: $115.05
Bought: Feb @ $133.23
Year-closing price: $176.46 (53%)
Along with Google, monetizes the internet better than anyone else.
Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $749.87
Bought more: Feb @ $836.59, Mar @ $853.08, Aug @ $999.47, Oct @ $958.00
Year-closing price: $1169.47 (56%)
Having wrecked traditional retail, incredibly well positioned to dominate the next decade.
Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Year-opening price: $102.95
Year-closing price: $175.24 (70%)
Software-as-a-service, part two.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $211.39
Year-closing price: $364.94 (73%)
A company without peers.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $106.74
Bought more: Jan @ $103.58, Mar @ $102.27, Apr @ $103.17, May @ $105.55, Jul @ $141.90, Aug @ $164.49, Sep @ $167.93, Oct @ $179.55, Nov @ $206.20, Dec @ $200.00
Year-closing price: $193.50 (81%)
The best chipmaker in the world. A quadruple-threat of deep learning, automated driving, virtual reality, and datacenters.
