2017 Stock Recap: The Ongoing Concerns

In case you missed it, a thankfully terse "Departed" recap can be found here.

2017 was a good year.  My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%).  It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%).  I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.

We're going to keep 2018 just like 2017: as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.

And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


Priceline Group (PCLN)
Bought: Aug @ $2044.00
Year-closing price: $1737.74 (-15%)
Bought at the peak.  Will it return to previously uninterrupted growth?

Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Bought: Oct @ $106.90
Year-closing price: $105.22 (-2%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part one.

Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $55.52
Year-closing price: $57.43 (3%)
Two sub-par years in a row.  May be past its prime.

Comcast (CMCSA)
Bought: Feb @ $37.72
Year-closing price: $40.05 (6%)
Slow and steady growth.  Cable cord-cutting seems like more of a problem than it actually is.

Chubb Limited (CB)
Year-opening price: $132.12
Year-closing price: $146.13 (11%)
My longest-held stock (since 2004); in a word, consistent.

CSX (CSX)
Bought: Mar @ $49.21
Year-closing price: $55.01 (12%)
Chaotic year.  Precision Scheduled Railroading now in place.  R.I.P. Hunter Harrison.

Visa (V)
Bought: Aug @ $101.39
Year-closing price: $114.02 (12%)
The best proxy for commerce that money can buy.

Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $160.11
Year-closing price: $186.12 (16%)
The finest (brick and mortar) retailer in the world.

Waste Management (WM)
Year-opening price: $70.91
Bought more: Dec @ $82.38
Year-closing price: $86.30 (21%)
Hot garbage.

Union Pacific (UNP)
Bought: Mar @ $110.07
Year-closing price: $134.10 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part two.

Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $67.40
Year-closing price: $82.50 (22%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part three.

Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $50.83
Year-closing price: $62.55 (23%)
A nice bounceback year.  Adidas is the new competition.

Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Bought: Aug @ $115.54
Year-closing price: $144.90 (25%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part four.

American Water Works (AWK)
Year-opening price: $72.36
Year-closing price: $91.49 (26%)
Finally, a year which they underperformed Aqua America (albeit slightly).

Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $36.27
Year-closing price: $46.16 (27%)
Has been surpassed by NVIDIA, but will still make lots of money.

Aqua America (WTR)
Year-opening price: $30.04
Year-closing price: $39.23 (31%)
Finally, a year which they outperformed American Water Works (albeit slightly).

Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $792.45
Bought more: Feb @ $815.00
Year-closing price: $1053.40 (33%)
The best proxy for tech that money can buy. Automated driving will become a(nother) cash cow.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Bought: Mar @ $47.13
Year-closing price: $63.32 (34%)
Well positioned for future augmented reality/virtual growth opportunities.

BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $380.54
Bought more: Nov @ $469.43
Year-closing price: $513.71 (35%)
Will be owned as long as it continues years like this.

Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $62.14
Bought more: Nov @ $83.28
Year-closing price: $85.54 (38%)
The Satya Nadella winning streak continues.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Year-opening price: $160.04
Bought more: Nov @ $199.20
Year-closing price: $220.46 (38%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.

Autodesk (ADSK)
Year-opening price: $74.01
Year-closing price: $104.83 (42%)
The remainder of my 3D printing thesis; should have known that software is all that matters.

Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $213.69
Bought more: Jan @ $214.75, Feb @ $248.34, Mar @ $249.71, Apr @ $297.00, May @ $324.07, Jul @ $347.24, Aug @ $346.80, Sep @ $353.80, Oct @ $335.90, Nov @ $300.00, Dec @ $306.26
Year-closing price: $311.35 (46%)
Elon Musk believes his Model 3 will change the world. Don't doubt him.

Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $115.82
Bought more: Dec @ $172.45
Year-closing price: $169.23 (46%)
Will inevitably become the world's first trillion dollar company.

Salesforce (CRM)
Year-opening price: $68.46
Year-closing price: $102.23 (49%)
Software-as-a-service, part one.

Facebook (FB)
Year-opening price: $115.05
Bought: Feb @ $133.23
Year-closing price: $176.46 (53%)
Along with Google, monetizes the internet better than anyone else.

Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $749.87
Bought more: Feb @ $836.59, Mar @ $853.08, Aug @ $999.47, Oct @ $958.00
Year-closing price: $1169.47 (56%)
Having wrecked traditional retail, incredibly well positioned to dominate the next decade.

Adobe Systems (ADBE)
Year-opening price: $102.95
Year-closing price: $175.24 (70%)
Software-as-a-service, part two.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $211.39
Year-closing price: $364.94 (73%)
A company without peers.

NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $106.74
Bought more: Jan @ $103.58, Mar @ $102.27, Apr @ $103.17, May @ $105.55, Jul @ $141.90, Aug @ $164.49, Sep @ $167.93, Oct @ $179.55, Nov @ $206.20, Dec @ $200.00
Year-closing price: $193.50 (81%)
The best chipmaker in the world. A quadruple-threat of deep learning, automated driving, virtual reality, and datacenters.

2017 Stock Recap: The Departed

A tradition unlike any other...

2017 was a good year.  My portfolio solidly outperformed the S&P 500, gaining 33.5% vs. 21.8% (+11.7%).  It is my 4th best rate of return after 2003 (46.5%), 2009 (39.0%), and 2013 (34.7%); and 3rd best relative to the S&P 500 after 2003 (+17.8%) and 2009 (+12.5%).  I am most proud of my 62.7% savings return for the year, just below the all-time high of 70.3% in 2009.

As most successful years go, there were not many stocks sold - just 6 - but they were significant in terms of both capital losses, and giving up the ghost on some ill-advised investment decisions.

Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2017's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:


Twitter (TWTR)
Year-opening price: $16.30
Sold: Feb @ $16.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $24.01 (47%)
A rising tide lifts all boats.  Third fiddle to Facebook and Google in social media.

Stratasys (SSYS)
Year-opening price: $16.54
Bought more: Jun @ $27.83
Sold: Aug @ $22.59 (37%)
Year-closing price: $19.96 (21%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part one.

ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA)
Bought: Jan @ $254.94
Sold: Oct @ $226.93 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $223.66 (-12%)
Growth slowing; got in at the wrong time (i.e. late).

ExOne (XONE)
Year-opening price: $10.35
Sold: Aug @ $9.70 (-6%)
Year-closing price: $8.40 (-19%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part two.

3D Systems (DDD)
Year-opening price: $13.29
Sold: Aug @ $13.00 (-2%)
Year-closing price: $8.64 (-35%)
3D printing technology may not be all that compelling, part three.

Under Armour (UAA)
Year-opening price: $29.05
Sold: Feb @ $21.60 (-26%)
Year-closing price: $14.43 (-50%)
In free-fall; showing no signs of a turnaround anytime soon.

Stocks Of The Month: AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, WM

(you already know about NVIDIA (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA))

(and Apple (AAPL) deserves some of that iPhone X money)

(but what if I told you...that one of my best stocks is...garbage?)

Waste Management (WM) has outperformed the market over the short and long term...

WM 2 yr

WM 30 yr

...while paying a consistently growing dividend (currently yielding 2.1%); growing $14B in revenue at 7%, and earnings at 26%; and showing excellent profit (9%) and operating (18%) margins, return on assets (8%), return on equity (24%), and free cash flow of $1.6B.  Simply put, WM checks all the boxes.  (or, it's some real hot trash)

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Tesla (TSLA) 14.83%
Apple (AAPL) 11.94%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.49%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 8.96%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.84%
Facebook (FB) 5.57%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.97%
Microsoft (MSFT) 2.63%
Adobe Systems (ADBE) 2.41%
Nike (NKE) 2.36%
Salesforce.com (CRM) 2.08%
Intel (INTC) 2.04%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.99%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.98%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.93%
Visa (V) 1.92%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.86%
Waste Management (WM) 1.83%
Priceline Group (PCLN) 1.54%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.47%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.97%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.89%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.71%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.59%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.58%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.54%
CSX (CSX) 0.53%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.52%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.50%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.47%