Stocks Of The Month: AMD, COST

Keeping it short and sweet this month...Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours.


Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• $44.3B market cap
• no dividend
• $6.0B revenue
• 9% revenue growth
• $0.2B operating cash flow
• $0.02B free cash flow

Costco Wholesale (COST)

• $123.0B market cap
• 0.9% dividend yield
• $152.7B revenue
• 7% revenue growth
• $6.4B operating cash flow
• $2.6B free cash flow

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). You may notice the a-few-green-at-the-top, a-lot-yellow-at-the-bottom pattern here...meaning 1) most of my 2019 goals were achieved; and 2) my 2020 goal is to make my portfolio top-heavy. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

NVIDIA (NVDA) 14.23%
Apple (AAPL) 13.29%
Amazon (AMZN) 12.31%
Tesla (TSLA) 10.77%
Microsoft (MSFT) 10.68%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 5.71%
Facebook (FB) 3.84%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.54%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.47%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.16%
Visa (V) 2.13%
Nike (NKE) 2.07%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 2.06%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 2.02%
Intel (INTC) 1.90%
Comcast (CMCSA) 1.81%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.68%
Waste Management (WM) 1.41%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 1.03%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.95%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.89%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.83%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.79%
CSX (CSX) 0.73%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.35%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.33%

Stock Of The Month: NVDA

Revisiting the catalysts for NVIDIA to outperform the market for the foreseeable future:

• NVIDIA is at the heart of technologies shaping our future: deep learning, artificial intelligence, datacenters/cloud computing, and automated driving.
• Within the semiconductor industry, Intel is the best-in-class manufacturer, while NVIDIA is the best-in-class designer. If someone wants the most powerful chips in the world, they choose NVIDIA.
• NVIDIA's new chip (Turing) being so much better than their old chip (Pascal) was a high-quality problem...now in the rear-view mirror.

Restating my beliefs: NVIDIA deserves the current market cap of Intel (95% upside).


NVIDIA (NVDA)

• $125.9B market cap
• 0.3% dividend yield
• $10.2B revenue
• -17% revenue growth
• $3.0B operating cash flow
• $1.6B free cash flow

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

NVIDIA (NVDA) 14.77%
Apple (AAPL) 13.51%
Amazon (AMZN) 12.85%
Microsoft (MSFT) 10.60%
Tesla (TSLA) 10.42%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 5.82%
Facebook (FB) 3.86%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.51
Adobe (ADBE) 2.31%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.16%
Visa (V) 2.14%
Nike (NKE) 2.06%
Intel (INTC) 2.00%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.88%
Comcast (CMCSA) 1.86%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.67%
Waste Management (WM) 1.42%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.34%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.96%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.89%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.84%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 0.81%
CSX (CSX) 0.79%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.79%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.36%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.35%

Stocks Of The Month: CRM, MSFT

In January, I identified the all of the stocks that I wanted to buy more of during the upcoming year. I've been chipping away at this list ever since, but unfortunately there just aren't enough months in the year to buy them all (at least in significant quantities). So, I set up a battle-royale for this month's non-Microsoft choice between Adobe (ADBE), Autodesk (ADSK), Salesforce (CRM), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). CRM won out, due to superior cash flow and revenue numbers.

Meanwhile, I've bought more Microsoft (MSFT) this year than any other stock in any other year, ever. Their recently announced share buyback and dividend raise confirms my bullish thesis.

Salesforce (CRM)

• $128.0B market cap
• no dividend
• $14.7B revenue
• 22% revenue growth
• $3.9B operating cash flow
• $4.5B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)

• $1.03T market cap
• 1.5% dividend yield
• $125.8B revenue
• 12% revenue growth
• $52.2B operating cash flow
• $30.9B free cash flow

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 13.67%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 13.41%
Apple (AAPL) 13.19%
Microsoft (MSFT) 11.13%
Tesla (TSLA) 8.64%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 6.04%
Facebook (FB) 3.94%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.65%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.56%
Nike (NKE) 2.37%
Visa (V) 2.32%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.26%
Comcast (CMCSA) 2.09%
Intel (INTC) 1.95%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.93%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.83%
Waste Management (WM) 1.65%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.47%
American Water Works (AWK) 1.10%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.87%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.85%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.83%
CSX (CSX) 0.80%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 0.71%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.36%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.35%

Stocks Of The Month: CMCSA, MSFT, SBUX

First, another sale...(definitely) my final of 2019. (We're down to 26 stocks, which is pretty exciting!) BlackRock (BLK) was first bought in May 2013. It went up; I bought some more; then it flattened out - rolled over, really - over the past 2+ years. The anemic -2% revenue growth sealed its fate. I've sold it at a modest 15% gain (2% annualized). I used the proceeds from this sale to help fund additional purchases of three stocks that I identified at the beginning of the year, including one that continues its slow climb from a "5" to a "16"...


Comcast (CMCSA)

• $206.9B market cap
• 1.9% dividend yield
• $103.7B revenue
• 24% revenue growth
• $26.0B operating cash flow
• $13.1B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)

• $1.05T market cap
• 1.3% dividend yield
• $125.8B revenue
• 12% revenue growth
• $52.2B operating cash flow
• $30.9B free cash flow

Starbucks (SBUX)

• $115.0B market cap
• 1.5% dividend yield
• $26.1B revenue
• 8% revenue growth
• $12.4B operating cash flow
• $3.8B free cash flow

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 14.82%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 12.80%
Apple (AAPL) 12.68%
Microsoft (MSFT) 9.59%
Tesla (TSLA) 8.37%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 6.17%
Facebook (FB) 4.28%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.59%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.74%
Visa (V) 2.52%
Nike (NKE) 2.29%
Starbucks (SBUX) 2.26%
Comcast (CMCSA) 2.23%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.14%
Intel (INTC) 1.96%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.96%
Waste Management (WM) 1.79%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.55%
American Water Works (AWK) 1.19%
Union Pacific (UNP) 0.93%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.87%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.86%
CSX (CSX) 0.84%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 0.80%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.40%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.36%

Stocks Of The Month: AMD, NVDA

(Since I'm feeling lazy, and these are the same two stocks chosen in May,...here's May's post with some updated numbers.)


Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• $32.0B market cap
• no dividend
• $5.9B revenue
• -13% revenue growth
• $0.01B operating cash flow
• -$0.06B free cash flow

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• $98.2B market cap
• 0.4% dividend yield
• $10.7B revenue
• -31% revenue growth
• $3.0B operating cash flow
• $1.4B free cash flow

Revisiting the catalysts for NVIDIA to outperform the market for the foreseeable future:

• NVIDIA is at the heart of technologies shaping our future: deep learning, artificial intelligence, datacenters/cloud computing, and automated driving.
• Within the semiconductor industry, Intel is the best-in-class manufacturer, while NVIDIA is the best-in-class designer. If someone wants the most powerful chips in the world, they choose NVIDIA.
• NVIDIA's new chip (Turing) being so much better than their old chip (Pascal) is a high-quality problem. The inventory issues causing so much grief with investors will soon be in the past.

Whereas Intel and NVIDIA have larger market caps as mentioned above, AMD is substantially smaller. It is arguably the only significant competitor for either company, and is inarguably gaining technological ground on both:

• In the cloud, AMD has struck deals with Amazon and Google.
• In gaming, AMD will the chip provider for Microsoft's newest XBOX.
• In desktops, AMD will be the first to sell 7mm CPUs and GPUs, which promise increased capabilities and lower power consumption.

Restating my beliefs: NVIDIA deserves the current market cap of Intel (120% upside), and AMD deserves the current market cap of NVIDIA (206% upside).


Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 15.21%
Apple (AAPL) 12.54%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 12.40%
Tesla (TSLA) 9.01%
Microsoft (MSFT) 8.36%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 6.33%
Facebook (FB) 4.38%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.76%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.87%
Visa (V) 2.49%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 2.19%
Nike (NKE) 2.18%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.08%
Starbucks (SBUX) 2.06%
Intel (INTC) 1.98%
Waste Management (WM) 1.76%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.44%
Comcast (CMCSA) 1.41%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.19%
American Water Works (AWK) 1.10%
Union Pacific (UNP) 1.02%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.93%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.90%
CSX (CSX) 0.85%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 0.77%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.42%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.35%

Searching With My Good Eye Closed: 145 Stocks That I Don't Own, And Wish I Could (2019 Edition)

If I took you for a ride, would you take it wrong?
Or would you make it right, make it right?
Looking for a pedestal that I can put you on
And be on my way, on my way

Fun fact: I have 12 "watchlists", broken out by sector, which in total contain 455 stocks. These watchlists mostly consist of stocks that at some point in time made me say "wow, that is interesting", followed by me forgetting about them entirely, followed by me looking at them and saying "what is this, and why is it here?"

I also have a 13th watchlist entitled "Short List" consisting of the stocks that I actually pay attention to, and have varying degrees of intent for addition to my portfolio in the future.

I have completed the yearly effort to update the "Short List" by combing through all 13 watchlists, looking for one particular characteristic: the stock must have consistently outperformed the market, across several historical time horizons.

The following 145 stocks made the cut. They may have questionable valuation/financials, or lack upside due to shear size, or participate in a boring business, or represent additional risks going forward; but if the point of investing in individual stocks is to beat the broader market, all of these stocks have a history of doing exactly just that...which may be the most fundamental characteristic of all.

I will track these and post an update one year from now. Find out how the choices of the last three years performed: 2018, 2017, 2016.

NAME	SYMBOL	CURRENT MKT CAP	# YEARS ON LIST
Alibaba Group Holding Limited	BABA	452.914B	2
Walmart, Inc.	WMT	318.273B	-
Mastercard Incorporated	MA	278.929B	1
The Walt Disney Company	DIS	257.321B	-
Cisco Systems, Inc.	CSCO	241.776B	-
The Home Depot, Inc.	HD	233.215B	3
SAP SE	SAP	167.375B	-
Netflix, Inc.	NFLX	166.896B	3
McDonald's Corporation	MCD	161.049B	-
Abbott Laboratories	ABT	149.482B	-
PayPal Holdings, Inc.	PYPL	138.266B	2
Honeywell International Inc.	HON	127.23B	-
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.	TMO	122.166B	3
Broadcom Inc.	AVGO	113.407B	-
Texas Instruments Incorporated	TXN	108.776B	-
Danaher Corporation	DHR	102.584B	-
NextEra Energy, Inc.	NEE	99.16B	-
HDFC Bank Limited	HDB	98.802B	3
QUALCOMM Incorporated	QCOM	93.159B	-
Lowe's Companies, Inc.	LOW	80.179B	-
Stryker Corporation	SYK	77.809B	3
CME Group Inc.	CME	73.361B	3
Anthem, Inc.	ANTM	72.2B	2
Intuit Inc.	INTU	70.604B	1
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	ADP	69.515B	1
Sony Corporation	SNE	67.945B	-
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.	EL	67.319B	-
Boston Scientific Corporation	BSX	58.994B	3
Illumina, Inc.	ILMN	55.645B	1
ServiceNow, Inc.	NOW	55.305B	2
Crown Castle International Corp.	CCI	55.278B	-
Deere & Company	DE	51.753B	-
Prologis, Inc.	PLD	51.36B	-
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	APD	50.51B	-
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.	ICE	49.754B	-
The Progressive Corporation	PGR	49.382B	1
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	48.997B	-
Aon plc	AON	46.786B	-
Target Corporation	TGT	44.705B	-
Equinix, Inc.	EQIX	43.227B	-
The Sherwin-Williams Company	SHW	41.979B	-
Aflac Incorporated	AFL	41.918B	-
Analog Devices, Inc.	ADI	41.304B	-
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation	EW	38.947B	3
Moody's Corporation	MCO	38.789B	2
Fiserv, Inc.	FISV	36.98B	1
Monster Beverage Corporation	MNST	35.849B	-
Dollar General Corporation	DG	35.396B	-
V.F. Corporation	VFC	34.926B	-
Shopify Inc.	SHOP	34.168B	-
YUM! Brands, Inc.	YUM	33.746B	-
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited	CP	32.933B	-
Atlassian Corporation Plc	TEAM	32.148B	-
Square, Inc.	SQ	31.74B	2
Xcel Energy Inc.	XEL	30.947B	-
Paychex, Inc.	PAYX	30.534B	-
Tyson Foods, Inc.	TSN	29.973B	-
Xilinx, Inc.	XLNX	29.215B	-
Motorola Solutions, Inc.	MSI	28.075B	-
Republic Services, Inc.	RSG	27.949B	-
AutoZone, Inc.	AZO	27.289B	-
TransDigm Group Incorporated	TDG	26.42B	3
VeriSign, Inc.	VRSN	25.87B	1
Waste Connections, Inc.	WCN	25.772B	3
Dollar Tree, Inc.	DLTR	25.731B	-
Veeva Systems Inc.	VEEV	25.316B	2
Zoom Video Communications, Inc.	ZM	24.643B	-
Lululemon Athletica Inc.	LULU	23.969B	-
Verisk Analytics, Inc.	VRSK	23.917B	-
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.	IDXX	23.715B	1
Total System Services, Inc.	TSS	23.08B	3
TAL Education Group	TAL	22.76B	-
McCormick & Company, Incorporated	MKC	21.51B	-
Mettler-Toledo International Inc.	MTD	20.86B	-
Arista Networks, Inc.	ANET	20.794B	1
CoStar Group, Inc.	CSGP	20.664B	2
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.	CMG	20.139B	-
Ulta Beauty, Inc.	ULTA	19.953B	-
Splunk Inc.	SPLK	19.419B	-
IAC/InterActiveCorp	IAC	19.318B	2
Best Buy Co., Inc.	BBY	19.219B	2
Canopy Growth Corporation	WEED.TO	18.511B	1
Restaurant Brands International Inc.	QSR	17.746B	-
Twilio Inc.	TWLO	17.57B	-
Ansys, Inc.	ANSS	17.44B	2
Nasdaq, Inc.	NDAQ	17.24B	3
Copart, Inc.	CPRT	17.177B	3
HEICO Corporation	HEI	16.202B	3
Okta, Inc.	OKTA	14.553B	-
CarMax, Inc.	KMX	14.474B	-
Paycom Software, Inc.	PAYC	14.152B	3
Extra Space Storage Inc.	EXR	13.677B	-
Fortinet, Inc.	FTNT	13.623B	-
Erie Indemnity Company	ERIE	13.619B	-
Canopy Growth Corporation	CGC	13.515B	-
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.	CRWD	13.225B	-
MarketAxess Holdings Inc.	MKTX	13.219B	-
DexCom, Inc.	DXCM	13.053B	1
NVR, Inc.	NVR	12.2B	3
Leidos Holdings, Inc.	LDOS	11.739B	-
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.	JEC	11.516B	-
Fidelity National Financial, Inc.	FNF	11.184B	-
Roku, Inc.	ROKU	10.789B	1
The Trade Desk, Inc.	TTD	10.411B	-
Zillow Group, Inc.	Z	9.873B	3
EPAM Systems, Inc.	EPAM	9.691B	-
Fair Isaac Corporation	FICO	9.607B	2
Ubiquiti Networks, Inc.	UBNT	9.357B	3
Credit Acceptance Corporation	CACC	9.123B	-
Beyond Meat, Inc.	BYND	9.109B	-
Universal Display Corporation	OLED	8.999B	-
Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.	BFAM	8.994B	-
NICE Ltd.	NICE	8.807B	1
Service Corporation International	SCI	8.585B	-
Guidewire Software, Inc.	GWRE	8.449B	2
Teradyne, Inc.	TER	8.107B	-
Masimo Corporation	MASI	7.95B	-
Alteryx, Inc.	AYX	7.413B	-
Planet Fitness, Inc.	PLNT	7.161B	-
Proofpoint, Inc.	PFPT	6.975B	3
GrubHub Inc.	GRUB	6.959B	1
Columbia Sportswear Company	COLM	6.929B	1
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc.	CRL	6.896B	-
Ciena Corporation	CIEN	6.691B	-
Elbit Systems Ltd.	ESLT	6.69B	-
Mellanox Technologies, Ltd.	MLNX	6.219B	-
Cree, Inc.	CREE	6.1B	1
Pegasystems Inc.	PEGA	5.811B	-
Paylocity Holding Corporation	PCTY	5.542B	-
CyberArk Software Ltd.	CYBR	4.865B	1
Teladoc, Inc.	TDOC	4.761B	1
Churchill Downs Incorporated	CHDN	4.723B	-
Tilray, Inc.	TLRY	4.534B	-
Silicon Laboratories Inc.	SLAB	4.509B	-
The Boston Beer Company, Inc.	SAM	4.473B	-
CoreSite Realty Corporation	COR	4.389B	-
Mercury Systems, Inc.	MRCY	3.942B	-
Baozun Inc.	BZUN	3.365B	1
Fox Factory Holding Corp.	FOXF	3.181B	-
Five9, Inc.	FIVN	3.075B	-
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc.	CCOI	2.824B	-
American States Water Company	AWR	2.79B	-
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.	ALRM	2.532B	-
Inphi Corporation	IPHI	2.374B	-
DMC Global Inc.	BOOM	0.908B	1