Friday, January 4, 2019

Stocks Of The Month: CSX, NSC, UNP

Welcome to the fourth (and final) edition of the The Fourth Quarter Dividend (Overtime Edition). Previous editions can be found here, here, and here.

This month I will choose from the "1"s of my portfolio. (Meaning, each of these stocks are roughly target allocated for 1% of my total portfolio.) The candidate stocks are:

American Water Works (AWK)
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
CSX (CSX)
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Union Pacific (UNP)
Aqua America (WTR)

AWK: 2.04% dividend yield, 69% payout ratio, $3.4B revenue, 4% revenue growth, $1.4B operating cash flow, -$0.6B free cash flow
CNI: 1.86% dividend yield, 23% payout ratio, $10.4B revenue, 15% revenue growth, $4.0B operating cash flow, $0.9B free cash flow
CSX: 1.42% dividend yield, 12% payout ratio, $12.0B revenue, 14% revenue growth, $4.0B operating cash flow, $1.9B free cash flow
KSU: 1.50% dividend yield, 15% payout ratio, $2.7B revenue, 7% revenue growth, $1.0B operating cash flow, $0.2B free cash flow
NSC: 2.15% dividend yield, 14% payout ratio, $11.2B revenue, 10% revenue growth, $3.7B operating cash flow, $1.5B free cash flow
UNP: 2.33% dividend yield, 20% payout ratio, $22.5B revenue, 10% revenue growth, $8.2B operating cash flow, $3.6B free cash flow
WTR: 2.61% dividend yield, 60% payout ratio, $0.8B revenue, 5% revenue growth, $0.4B operating cash flow, -$0.2B free cash flow

Amongst a free cash flow-challenged group, CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Union Pacific are the winners. These three stocks also have a promising combination of low payout ratios and good revenue growth, which should support dividend payout growth.

Looking forward to the rest of 2019 - I have a few goals, reflected in the updated buy/hold assignments below, resulting from the yearly exercise that is The Ongoing Concerns:
  • Reward winners:  Salesforce (+34% in 2018), Intuitive Surgical (+31%), Adobe (+29%), Amazon (+28%), Autodesk (+23%), Microsoft (+19%)
  • Buy values:  NVIDIA (-31% in 2018), Comcast (-15%)
  • Add to high-quality, under-allocated dividend stocks quarterly...as of this writing:  Microsoft, Starbucks (+12% in 2018), Costco Wholesale (+9%), Norfolk Southern (+3%), Comcast

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 15.10%
Tesla (TSLA) 15.05%
Apple (AAPL) 11.26%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 9.25%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 7.05%
Microsoft (MSFT) 4.36%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4.27%
Facebook (FB) 3.95%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.73%
Nike (NKE) 2.48%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.43%
Intel (INTC) 2.37%
Visa (V) 2.32%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 2.11%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.69%
Waste Management (WM) 1.69%
Chubb Limited (CB) 1.39%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.35%
Booking Holdings (BKNG) 1.30%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.28%
Union Pacific (UNP) 1.00%
CSX (CSX) 0.98%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.97%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 0.76%
Comcast (CMCSA) 0.67%
American Water Works (AWK) 0.59%
Aqua America (WTR) 0.44%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.42%
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) 0.40%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.34%