- I did not sell a single stock during a calendar year; and
- I did not purchase a new stock during a calendar year
This is either a sign of newly-found investor maturity, or I'm running out of ideas. Hopefully, the former.
2018 was a good year...through October, then it all went wrong. By the end of the year, my portfolio outperformed the S&P 500, losing -0.6% vs. -4.8% (+4.2%). I'm not particularly pleased about a year of negative returns, but of course, it could have been worse. From a savings return perspective, my portfolio was up 14.9% - which is all that really matters, anyway.
We're going to keep 2019 just like 2018: as boring as possible, and keep hammering away at limited number of winning investments.
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2018's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Year-opening price: $193.50
Bought more: Jan @ $204.20, Feb @ $237.03, Mar @ $228.12, Apr @ $227.84, Jun @ $259.00, Aug @ $243.43, Sep @ $282.95
Year-closing price: $133.50 (-31%)
Fundamentals unchanged, and wildly mispriced. Their new chip (Turing) being so much better than their old chip (Pascal) is a high-quality problem.
Activision Blizzard (ATVI)
Year-opening price: $63.32
Year-closing price: $46.57 (-27%)
Growth story busted, part one.
Facebook (FB)
Year-opening price: $176.46
Bought: May @ $174.30
Year-closing price: $131.09 (-26%)
Sentiment turned negative in all regards. Still a cash cow.
BlackRock (BLK)
Year-opening price: $513.71
Year-closing price: $392.82 (-24%)
Growth story busted, part two.
Comcast (CMCSA)
Year-opening price: $40.05
Year-closing price: $34.05 (-15%)
Good fundamentals. Seems like a bargain.
Aqua America (WTR)
Year-opening price: $39.23
Year-closing price: $34.19 (-13%)
Reversion back to underperforming American Water Works.
Chubb Limited (CB)
Year-opening price: $146.13
Year-closing price: $129.18 (-12%)
Growth story busted, part three.
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Year-opening price: $82.50
Year-closing price: $74.11 (-10%)
The best growth of my railroad stocks; seems to have been unfairly punished.
Kansas City Southern (KSU)
Year-opening price: $105.22
Year-closing price: $95.45 (-9%)
The worst growth of my railroad stocks; seems to have been fairly punished.
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $169.23
Bought more: Jan @ $172.61, Feb @ $166.34, Mar @ $172.67, Apr @ $167.58, Oct @ $227.23
Year-closing price: $157.74 (-7%)
The best company in the world, bar none.
Priceline Group (PCLN)
Year-closing price: $1737.74
Year-closing price: $1722.42 (-1%)
Bought at the peak; underwhelming ever since.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Year-opening price: $1053.40
Year-closing price: $1044.96 (-1%)
The best proxy for tech that money can buy. Automated driving will become a(nother) cash cow.
American Water Works (AWK)
Year-opening price: $91.49
Year-closing price: $90.77 (-1%)
Reversion back to outperforming Aqua America.
Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $46.16
Bought more: Dec @ $49.52
Year-closing price: $46.93 (2%)
Has been surpassed by NVIDIA, but will still make lots of money.
Union Pacific (UNP)
Year-opening price: $134.10
Year-closing price: $138.23 (3%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part one.
Waste Management (WM)
Year-opening price: $86.30
Year-closing price: $88.99 (3%)
Growth story busted, part four.
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Year-opening price: $144.90
Year-closing price: $149.54 (3%)
Hauling heavy things will always be useful, part two.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $311.35
Bought more: Jan @ $321.00, Feb @ $348.44, Jul @ $331.75
Year-closing price: $332.80 (7%)
A volatile year, to say the least. Model 3 an undeniable success.
Costco Wholesale (COST)
Year-opening price: $186.12
Year-closing price: $203.71 (9%)
The finest (brick and mortar) retailer in the world.
Starbucks (SBUX)
Year-opening price: $57.43
Year-closing price: $64.40 (12%)
Strong fundamentals. Finally showing signs of life after 3 years of underperformance.
CSX (CSX)
Year-opening price: $55.01
Year-closing price: $62.13 (13%)
Precision Scheduled Railroading in full effect.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Year-opening price: $220.46
Bought more: Dec @ $286.15
Year-closing price: $249.12 (13%)
Monster revenues, cash flows, dividend.
Visa (V)
Year-opening price: $114.02
Bought more: Dec @ $143.12
Year-closing price: $131.94 (16%)
The best proxy for commerce that money can buy.
Nike (NKE)
Year-opening price: $62.55
Year-closing price: $74.14 (19%)
Continued great performance from last year. Long-term growth story.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Year-opening price: $85.54
Bought more: Jan @ $86.11, Nov @ $106.43
Year-closing price: $101.57 (19%)
The Satya Nadella winning streak continues.
Autodesk (ADSK)
Year-opening price: $104.83
Year-closing price: $128.61 (23%)
Software-as-a-service, part one.
Amazon (AMZN)
Year-opening price: $1169.47
Bought more: Feb @ $1475.88, May @ $1580.98
Year-closing price: $1501.97 (28%)
Having wrecked traditional retail, incredibly well positioned to dominate the next decade.
Adobe (ADBE)
Year-opening price: $175.24
Year-closing price: $226.24 (29%)
Software-as-a-service, part two.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $364.94
Year-closing price: $478.92 (31%)
A company without peers.
Salesforce (CRM)
Year-opening price: $102.23
Year-closing price: $136.97 (34%)
Software-as-a-service, part three.
