Monday, October 5, 2020

An Updated Summary of My Grand Unified Theory of Investing

Check out my previous post for how we landed here...



Account:

IRA

Roth IRA

Stocks & Income

Current percentage of total holdings:

~23%

~7%

~69%

Investment philosophy:

Jack Bogle

George Soros

Warren Buffett

Headline summary:

“Don't Do Something,
Just Stand There!”

“You Call That A Position?”

“Wonderful Companies at Fair Prices”

Account holdings:

• 52% indices (IWM, QQQ, VOO)
• 23% high-yield stocks (VIG, VYM)
• 24% high-yield bonds (HYLB, USHY)

• 53% one “high-conviction” stock (???)
• 47% bonds (AGG)

• 58% stocks (2 core holdings + QQQ)
• 42% preferred stock/bond ETFs
entire portfolio detailed here

Are dividends
reinvested?

Yes

Yes (AGG only)

No

Investment schedule:

N/A

Asynchronous

Synchronous

When do I intend to make changes?

Never

When I have a higher-conviction bet than the existing one (AGG → ???), or no conviction at all (??? → AGG)

Monthly purchases; "I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them"

Is account actively
funded with new contributions?

No

No

Yes

Is account written about on this blog monthly / ever?

No

No

Yes

(Preferred) Stock(/Bond ETF)s Of The Month: HYLB, PFFD, USHY

I'm buying yield.

In a few days, I'll receive the first dividend payments from last month's substantial turn from growth to yield. It is...dare I say...kind of exciting!


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 split between stocks and bonds. As seen below, it is currently 58/42.

I am in no rush to flip into bonds. I would rather let my winners run forever. However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond and/or preferred stock ETFs. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.60T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $321.8B revenue
  • 40% revenue growth
  • $71.4B cash
  • $91.4B debt
  • $51.2B operating cash flow
  • $33.7B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $1.59T market cap
  • 1.1% dividend yield
  • $143.0B revenue
  • 13% revenue growth
  • $136.5B cash
  • $82.1B debt
  • $60.7B operating cash flow
  • $34.3B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETFs - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 13.64%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 11.75%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 11.73%
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) 10.79%
Microsoft (MSFT) 10.13%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 7.47%
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 3.72%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 3.52%
Facebook (FB) 2.75%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.32%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.13%
Salesforce (CRM) 1.81%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.34%
Visa (V) 1.28%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.25%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.63%

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

The End Of The Innocence: Sold TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, AMD

Remember when the days were long
And rolled beneath a deep blue sky
Didn't have a care in the world

I've been meaning to write my September update for a while now, but things kept on happening...

On September 1st, I bought (more) of AGG, HYLB, PFFD, and USHY.
On September 4th, the first of my recently-established stop-losses triggered for TSLA.  I used the (substantial) proceeds from this to buy (even more) AGG, HYLB, PFFD, and USHY; and also establish a new holding in QQQ.
On September 8th, my stop-loss triggered for NVDA.
On September 11th, my stop-loss triggered for AAPL and AMD.

It is difficult to overstate how important these particular stocks have been for my portfolio.

Tesla - due to both the size of the investment, and its extraordinary performance - had an especially large importance.  The gains from TSLA alone exceeded the value of my entire portfolio through the first 19 years of my investing career.

The result of these sales is a lot of cash...now my largest holding.  I plan to use the proceeds primarily towards QQQ, AGG, HYLB, PFFD, and USHY over the upcoming months.


As if that wasn't enough, the super-secret high-conviction stock in my Roth IRA was also sold on September 3rd via stop-loss trigger.  The proceeds from this sale re-established a 50/50 split between AGG and two new high-conviction stocks.  I will soon update my Grand Unified Theory accordingly.


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 split between stocks and bonds. As seen below, it is currently 66/34.

I am in no rush to flip into bonds. I would rather let my winners run forever. However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond and/or preferred stock ETFs. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.58T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $321.8B revenue
  • 40% revenue growth
  • $71.4B cash
  • $91.4B debt
  • $51.2B operating cash flow
  • $33.7B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $1.58T market cap
  • 1.0% dividend yield
  • $143.0B revenue
  • 13% revenue growth
  • $136.5B cash
  • $82.1B debt
  • $60.7B operating cash flow
  • $34.3B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETFs - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 11.90%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 9.55%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 9.53%
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) 9.53%
Microsoft (MSFT) 8.87%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 4.94%
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) 3.27%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 3.20%
Facebook (FB) 2.49%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 2.07%
Adobe (ADBE) 1.92%
Salesforce (CRM) 1.59%
Visa (V) 1.14%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.13%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.06%
Autodesk (ADSK) 0.57%