Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Give Up on Sears; Believe in Delphi

After giving Sears Holdings (SHLD) a thumbs-up just a couple of days ago because of Eddie Lampert's presence, I've given up on it.

Really, it's not that I don't like Sears, just that I determined it was the weakest investment in my portfolio, and due to it's lackluster performance, it was becoming a less and less significant part of the portfolio percentage-wise, and I didn't want to add to it...so I dumped it.

But really, what is Eddie Lampert doing at Sears that he can't be doing elsewhere (like ESL Investments)? How much of a difference can he make at Sears when he's tethered a struggling retail operation? Why isn't the turnaround plan being executed, quickly? Does Lampert have a voice in the boardroom, and is it being heard?

There's simply too much uncertainty that Sears Holdings really does equal Eddie Lampert. I realize I very well could be wrong, but Sears' actions don't seem like what Lampert's actions should and would be. I wouldn't be surprised if Lampert cashed out and walked away from Sears. In any case, it's become a "prove it" stock to me.

Meanwhile, Delphi (DPHIQ.PK) was pummeled today (down 17%) on news of its $2.55 billion investment plan with Appaloosa. That is down from a previous investment of $3.4 billion from Cerberus, who pulled out due to buying Chrysler from Daimler (DCX).

All I care about is that smart guys with money are still betting on the post-bankruptcy Delphi. The turnaround plan is intact: shed its old, low-margin, high-cost businesses (mostly auto parts); concentrate on its high-tech, high-margin businesses, like communications, safety, and thermal; and emerge as a smaller, more nimble, more competitive company. The long-term story didn't change one bit today - Delphi doesn't have to reinvent itself, but rather refocus itself. Yet the stock is much cheaper.

So I added to my position. The market will often gift-wrap good investments on bad days, and today that gift was in the form of DPHIQ.