Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Stocks Of The Month: AAPL, MF

Several of my portfolio holdings have taken double-digit-percentage beatings of late. Foster Wheeler had a bad earnings miss. NVIDIA disappointed on forecasted operating expenses. Goldman Sachs is down nearly 40% from its high on Halloween. Once-mighty Google is currently trading at its 52-week low. Everything is on sale!

I've decided to reinforce my current positions in Apple and MF Global, which were previous picks from September and December 2007, respectively.

Apple, along with Google, finds itself in the unusual position of being a value stock, with a forward P/E of just 20, and $18 billion of cash and no debt on the balance sheet. I believe there is still plenty of iPhone and Mac growth ahead.

MF Global has been punished for a "rogue wheat trader" who cost the company $141.5 million. Consequently, the stock has lost $1.2 billion in market value, as investors are concerned about the perceived lack of risk management. Seems excessive for a likely one-time event that doesn't affect the fundamental story of the company, and a quasi-arbitrage opportunity as the stock should return to its previous levels.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Southern Copper (PCU) 12.63%
Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust (DOM) 12.25%
Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) 9.66%
Google (GOOG) 5.99%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.98%
American Capital Strategies (ACAS) 5.30%
Tidewater (TDW) 5.27%
MF Global (MF) 4.90%
Apache (APA) 4.64%
Apple (AAPL) 4.62%
Goldman Sachs (GS) 4.41%
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 4.22%
Frontline (FRO) 3.78%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 3.67%
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 2.76%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 2.72%
Ace Limited (ACE) 2.56%
Nokia (NOK) 2.44%
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) 2.18%