As previously mentioned, 2012 was a relatively disappointing year for my portfolio, underperforming the S&P 500 by some 9%.
Baidu (BIDU), American Software (AMSWA), Apache (APA), and Annaly Capital Management (NLY) appear to be the major culprits, of the stocks that I still own. However, unlike some previous years, I am overall very pleased with the composition of my portfolio - and I don't anticipate any major turnover in 2013. (This, of course, is subject to change at any time.)
And now, let's look at all the stocks I've held going into this year, from worst to best - based solely on 2012's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
bebe stores (BEBE)
Bought: Feb @ $8.99
Year-closing price: $4.00 (-56%)
Would have been sold, if not for it's (minor) dividend.
American Software (AMSWA)
Year-opening price: $9.45
Year-closing price: $7.76 (-18%)
Maybe it's time Oracle acquired these guys.
Intel (INTC)
Year-opening price: $24.25
Year-closing price: $20.62 (-15%)
Warren Buffett bailed. Having trouble in mobile.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Bought: Sep @ $31.09
Year-closing price: $26.71 (-14%)
Xbox, Surface, Windows 8, Windows Phone...when will it all come together?
Baidu (BIDU)
Year-opening price: $116.47
Year-closing price: $100.29 (-14%)
China isn't as hot as it has been in past years.
Apache (APA)
Year-opening price: $90.58
Year-closing price: $78.50 (-13%)
Hurt by the low price of natural gas.
McDonald's (MCD)
Year-opening price: $100.33
Year-closing price: $88.21 (-12%)
At a crossroads, much like 1999-2002. It will bounce back.
Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Year-opening price: $15.96
Year-closing price: $14.04 (-12%)
Large dividend continues to cover capital losses.
Vodafone (VOD)
Year-opening price: $28.03
Year-closing price: $25.19 (-10%)
Has some truly poor fundamentals. Saved by the dividend.
F5 Networks (FFIV)
Year-opening price: $106.12
Year-closing price: $97.15 (-9%)
Seems extraordinarily cheap to me.
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
Year-opening price: $84.95
Year-closing price: $79.79 (-6%)
Hurt by the low price of natural gas, part two...
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP)
Year-opening price: $19.07
Year-closing price: $18.47 (-3%)
...and part three.
American Express (AXP)
Bought: Sep @ $58.62
Year-closing price: $57.48 (-2%)
Will be a sleepy dividend stock for as long as I own it.
DuPont (DD)
Year-opening price: $45.78
Year-closing price: $44.98 (-2%)
Still in the right position, over the long term.
International Business Machines (IBM)
Bought: Nov @ $191.23
Year-closing price: $191.55 (0%)
As boring as I expected.
American Capital Agency (AGNC)
Year-opening price: $28.08
Bought more: May @ $31.20
Year-closing price: $28.90 (3%)
The more exciting/volatile of my REIT stocks.
White River Capital (RVR)
Year-opening price: $20.25
Year-closing price: $21.25 (5%)
Thinly traded, small market cap, mystery stock. (Again.)
Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI)
Bought: Aug @ $47.58
Year-closing price: $50.34 (6%)
Should benefit from continued modernization of health care.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Year-opening price: $463.01
Year-closing price: $490.37 (6%)
Resting after an explosive 2011.
Google (GOOG)
Year-opening price: $645.90
Year-closing price: $707.38 (10%)
Android continues to roll; will offer more hardware in 2013.
Blackstone (BX)
Year-opening price: $14.01
Year-closing price: $15.59 (11%)
The best proxy for private equity.
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Bought: Jun @ $51.47
Year-closing price: $57.99 (13%)
So far, so good.
Ace Limited (ACE)
Year-opening price: $70.12
Year-closing price: $79.80 (14%)
Another pleasantly boring year in reinsurance.
MetroPCS (PCS)
Year-opening price: $8.68
Year-closing price: $9.94 (15%)
An excellent bet to be bought out, after flirting with Sprint and T-Mobile.
Prospect Capital (PSEC)
Year-opening price: $9.29
Year-closing price: $10.87 (17%)
Capital gains plus dividend equal a great year.
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Year-opening price: $28.56
Bought more: Apr @ $33.24
Year-closing price: $33.87 (19%)
Was all over the chart in 2012. Execution in 2013 is crucial.
China Mobile
Bought: Jun @ $49.45
Year-closing price: $58.72 (19%)
A less-than-hot China economy didn't hold them back.
La-Z-Boy (LZB)
Year-opening price: $11.90
Year-closing price: $14.15 (19%)
Continues it's turnaround.
Motorola Solutions (MSI)
Year-opening price: $46.29
Year-closing price: $55.68 (20%)
The boring half of Motorola keeps chugging along.
Global Sources (GSOL)
Bought: Feb @ $5.25
Year-closing price: $6.48 (23%)
"B2B in China? Yeah!"
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Year-opening price: $27.56
Bought more: Aug @ $34.12, Sep @ $35.67
Year-closing price: $34.18 (24%)
The best bank money can buy.
Southern Copper (SCCO)
Year-opening price: $30.18
Year-closing price: $37.86 (26%)
One of my favorite dividend stocks for many years running.
Apple (AAPL)
Year-opening price: $405.00
Year-closing price: $532.17 (31%)
Seems disappointing after breaking $700. Will return there soon.
Under Armour (UA)
Year-opening price: $35.90
Year-closing price: $48.53 (35%)
Bounced back nicely from a disappointing 2011.
Amazon (AMZN)
Bought: Feb @ $173.88, May @ $229.40
Year-closing price: $250.87 (44%)
A revolutionary company, firing on all cylinders.
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
2012 Stock Recap: The Departed
2012 was a relatively disappointing year for my portfolio. It returned 7.2% vs. 16.0% for the S&P 500.
That difference is, in part, due to the horribly horrendous stocks listed below. This investing year will be remembered by me as the year that destroyed "The Distressed" experiment once and for all.
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2012's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ)
Bought: Feb @ $7.94
Sold: Aug @ $14.29 (80%)
Year-closing price: $14.38 (81%)
This is how "The Distressed" is supposed to work...in theory.
Netflix (NFLX)
Year-opening price: $69.29
Sold: Apr @ $82.61 (19%)
Year-closing price: $92.59 (34%)
Dying to be bought by Amazon (AMZN).
Chimera Investment (CIM)
Year-opening price: $2.51
Sold: Apr @ $2.90 (16%)
Year-closing price: $2.61 (4%)
The worst REIT I'll ever own.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
Year-opening price: $113.96
Sold: Aug @ $101.00 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $68.54 (-40%)
The last royalty trust stock I'll ever own.
Jones Soda (JSDA)
Year-opening price: $0.37
Sold: Sep @ $0.32 (-15%)
Year-closing price: $0.30 (-19%)
Coca-Cola? Pepsi? Monster? Anyone? Hello?
Electronic Arts (EA)
Year-opening price: $20.60
Sold: Sep @ $14.10 (-32%)
Year-closing price: $14.52 (-30%)
Game software is a brutal industry.
Rubicon Technology (RBCN)
Bought: Feb @ $11.80
Sold: Nov @ $7.22 (-39%)
Year-closing price: $6.11 (-48%)
"Decent fundamentals", I said when I bought this. Hilarious.
ITT Educational Services (ESI)
Year-opening price: $56.89
Sold: Aug @ $31.07 (-45%)
Year-closing price: $17.31 (-70%)
Worthless, in so many ways.
Hansen Medical (HNSN)
Bought: Feb @ $3.51
Sold: Aug @ $1.74 (-50%)
Year-closing price: $2.08 (-41%)
"A much crappier version of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)"? Yes.
Dendreon (DNDN)
Bought: Feb @ $14.30
Sold: Jun @ $6.75 (-53%)
Year-closing price: $5.29 (-63%)
These guys will probably not cure cancer.
Acme Packet (APKT)
Bought: Feb @ $34.20
Sold: Jul @ $15.48 (-55%)
Year-closing price: $22.12 (-35%)
Boring network company.
Zipcar (ZIP)
Bought: Feb @ $15.15
Sold: Aug @ $6.80 (-55%)
Year-closing price: $8.24 (-46%)
Good idea, lousy stock.
MAKO Surgical (MAKO)
Bought: Feb @ $34.62
Sold: Jul @ $14.00 (-60%)
Year-closing price: $12.85 (-63%)
Terrible fundamentals.
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)
Year-opening price: $18.84
Sold: May @ $7.11 (-62%)
Year-closing price: $7.31 (-61%)
Can't truss it. Easily, the most return-damaging stock to my portfolio on this list.
Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT)
Bought: Feb @ $2.10
Sold: Jun @ $0.72 (-66%)
Year-closing price: $1.05 (-50%)
The last drug stock I'll ever own.
That difference is, in part, due to the horribly horrendous stocks listed below. This investing year will be remembered by me as the year that destroyed "The Distressed" experiment once and for all.
Here's a look at all the stocks I've sold in the past year, from best to worst - based solely on 2012's performance, while mostly ignoring any intra-year volatility:
Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ)
Bought: Feb @ $7.94
Sold: Aug @ $14.29 (80%)
Year-closing price: $14.38 (81%)
This is how "The Distressed" is supposed to work...in theory.
Netflix (NFLX)
Year-opening price: $69.29
Sold: Apr @ $82.61 (19%)
Year-closing price: $92.59 (34%)
Dying to be bought by Amazon (AMZN).
Chimera Investment (CIM)
Year-opening price: $2.51
Sold: Apr @ $2.90 (16%)
Year-closing price: $2.61 (4%)
The worst REIT I'll ever own.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
Year-opening price: $113.96
Sold: Aug @ $101.00 (-11%)
Year-closing price: $68.54 (-40%)
The last royalty trust stock I'll ever own.
Jones Soda (JSDA)
Year-opening price: $0.37
Sold: Sep @ $0.32 (-15%)
Year-closing price: $0.30 (-19%)
Coca-Cola? Pepsi? Monster? Anyone? Hello?
Electronic Arts (EA)
Year-opening price: $20.60
Sold: Sep @ $14.10 (-32%)
Year-closing price: $14.52 (-30%)
Game software is a brutal industry.
Rubicon Technology (RBCN)
Bought: Feb @ $11.80
Sold: Nov @ $7.22 (-39%)
Year-closing price: $6.11 (-48%)
"Decent fundamentals", I said when I bought this. Hilarious.
ITT Educational Services (ESI)
Year-opening price: $56.89
Sold: Aug @ $31.07 (-45%)
Year-closing price: $17.31 (-70%)
Worthless, in so many ways.
Hansen Medical (HNSN)
Bought: Feb @ $3.51
Sold: Aug @ $1.74 (-50%)
Year-closing price: $2.08 (-41%)
"A much crappier version of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)"? Yes.
Dendreon (DNDN)
Bought: Feb @ $14.30
Sold: Jun @ $6.75 (-53%)
Year-closing price: $5.29 (-63%)
These guys will probably not cure cancer.
Acme Packet (APKT)
Bought: Feb @ $34.20
Sold: Jul @ $15.48 (-55%)
Year-closing price: $22.12 (-35%)
Boring network company.
Zipcar (ZIP)
Bought: Feb @ $15.15
Sold: Aug @ $6.80 (-55%)
Year-closing price: $8.24 (-46%)
Good idea, lousy stock.
MAKO Surgical (MAKO)
Bought: Feb @ $34.62
Sold: Jul @ $14.00 (-60%)
Year-closing price: $12.85 (-63%)
Terrible fundamentals.
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT)
Year-opening price: $18.84
Sold: May @ $7.11 (-62%)
Year-closing price: $7.31 (-61%)
Can't truss it. Easily, the most return-damaging stock to my portfolio on this list.
Savient Pharmaceuticals (SVNT)
Bought: Feb @ $2.10
Sold: Jun @ $0.72 (-66%)
Year-closing price: $1.05 (-50%)
The last drug stock I'll ever own.
Friday, November 9, 2012
Stock Of The Month: IBM
Some 20 years ago, I told my Dad that he should buy IBM stock because "it was cheap". I didn't know anything about P/E or cash flows back then; I based my stock valuations from the prices listed in tiny print in the business section of the newspaper. IBM's price was less than almost all other companies, most of which I'd never even heard of! The stock is up over 2,000% since then.
I tell you this because 1) I wish I hadn't spent all my money on baseball cards, and 2) IBM has been around for a while, and will continue to be around for a while. They've led the U.S. Patent Office in patents granted for nearly two decades. If someone asked me "which company is going to bring the holodeck from science-fiction to reality?", IBM would top my short list. (Google and Microsoft would be the others.) It is the best proxy for Information Technology - they don't do one thing great, but they do an awful lot of things very, very well.
International Business Machines (IBM)
Positives:
Safe, growing dividend (1.8%).
Fantastic return on equity (74%).
Warren Buffett likes it.
Negatives:
Huge market cap ($214B).
Net -$22B cash minus debt.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Apple (AAPL) 16.19%
Google (GOOG) 8.03%
Baidu (BIDU) 6.98%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 6.86%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 5.70%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4.56%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.52%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.95%
Amazon (AMZN) 3.04%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.02%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 2.69%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.60%
Apache (APA) 2.33%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.27%
Blackstone (BX) 2.25%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.17%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.11%
Intel (INTC) 2.01%
Under Armour (UA) 1.88%
DuPont (DD) 1.81%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.65%
China Mobile (CHL) 1.57%
International Business Machines (IBM) 1.53%
ConocoPhillips (COP) 1.50%
Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI) 1.46%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.42%
American Express (AXP) 1.35%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.28%
Wells Fargo (WFC) 1.26%
The Distressed (BEBE, GSOL, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR) 1.10%
I tell you this because 1) I wish I hadn't spent all my money on baseball cards, and 2) IBM has been around for a while, and will continue to be around for a while. They've led the U.S. Patent Office in patents granted for nearly two decades. If someone asked me "which company is going to bring the holodeck from science-fiction to reality?", IBM would top my short list. (Google and Microsoft would be the others.) It is the best proxy for Information Technology - they don't do one thing great, but they do an awful lot of things very, very well.
International Business Machines (IBM)
Positives:
Safe, growing dividend (1.8%).
Fantastic return on equity (74%).
Warren Buffett likes it.
Negatives:
Huge market cap ($214B).
Net -$22B cash minus debt.
Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.
Apple (AAPL) 16.19%
Google (GOOG) 8.03%
Baidu (BIDU) 6.98%
Southern Copper (SCCO) 6.86%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 5.70%
American Capital Agency (AGNC) 4.56%
Ace Limited (ACE) 4.52%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 3.95%
Amazon (AMZN) 3.04%
American Software (AMSWA) 3.02%
Tesla Motors (TSLA) 2.69%
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) 2.60%
Apache (APA) 2.33%
Prospect Capital (PSEC) 2.27%
Blackstone (BX) 2.25%
McDonald's (MCD) 2.17%
Vodafone (VOD) 2.11%
Intel (INTC) 2.01%
Under Armour (UA) 1.88%
DuPont (DD) 1.81%
BreitBurn Energy Partners (BBEP) 1.65%
China Mobile (CHL) 1.57%
International Business Machines (IBM) 1.53%
ConocoPhillips (COP) 1.50%
Computer Programs and Systems (CPSI) 1.46%
F5 Networks (FFIV) 1.42%
American Express (AXP) 1.35%
Microsoft (MSFT) 1.28%
Wells Fargo (WFC) 1.26%
The Distressed (BEBE, GSOL, LZB, MSI, PCS, RVR) 1.10%
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