Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Stocks Of The Month: AMZN, MSFT

First, another sale...(probably) my final of 2019. Booking Holdings (BKNG) was bought in August 2017 and, up until that point, a "lower left to upper right" stock. Since then, not so much. I've sold it at a -7% loss (-4% annualized). This is yet another reminder that nobody's giving away extra money for degree-of-difficulty portfolios - and that it is easier to be right in just a few ways rather than in many. Which is exactly the thinking that informed this month's additions to a couple of my "16" stocks...


Amazon (AMZN)
  • $952.3B market cap
  • no dividend
  • $241.5B revenue
  • 17% revenue growth
  • $34.5B operating cash flow
  • $20.1B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $1.05T market cap
  • 1.4% dividend yield
  • $122.2B revenue
  • 14% revenue growth
  • $47.5B operating cash flow
  • $26.2B free cash flow


One comment I'd like to make about both AMZN and MSFT, which also applies to Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL):  the psychological trillion dollar hurdle is real.  One trillion dollars is an almost unimaginable amount of money - a million millions, in fact - and the market has a demonstrable "fear of heights" around these milestone market capitalizations (e.g. AAPL's subsequent retreat, MSFT's current pause).  I also know that these valuations are fully justified.  In particular, AMZN growing revenues by $41B year-over-year seems to be underappreciated; I expect it be the largest company in the world for the foreseeable future.

Here's my current portfolio (buy and hold). As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Amazon (AMZN) 16.19%
Apple (AAPL) 12.50%
NVIDIA (NVDA) 11.86%
Tesla (TSLA) 8.67%
Microsoft (MSFT) 8.37%
Alphabet (GOOGL) 5.91%
Facebook (FB) 4.54%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 3.89%
Adobe (ADBE) 2.95%
Visa (V) 2.47%
Nike (NKE) 2.29%
Salesforce (CRM) 2.20%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 2.14%
Intel (INTC) 1.97%
Starbucks (SBUX) 1.85%
Waste Management (WM) 1.75%
Comcast (CMCSA) 1.42%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.41%
BlackRock (BLK) 1.25%
American Water Works (AWK) 1.10%
Autodesk (ADSK) 1.04%
Norfolk Southern (NSC) 1.02%
Union Pacific (UNP) 1.01%
CSX (CSX) 0.99%
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 0.43%
Canadian National Railway (CNI) 0.42%
Kansas City Southern (KSU) 0.35%