Thursday, April 7, 2022

An Updated Summary of My Grand Unified Theory of Investing

 Check out my previous post for how we landed here...




Account:

IRA

Roth IRA

Stocks & Income

Current percentage of total holdings:

~26%

~2%

~72%

Investment philosophy:

Jack Bogle

George Soros

Warren Buffett

Headline summary:

“Don't Do Something,
Just Stand There!”

“You Call That A Position?”

“Wonderful Companies at Fair Prices”

Account holdings:

• 54% index ETFs (IWM, QQQJ, QQQM, VOO)
• 25% high yield stock ETFs (VIG, VYM)
• 21% bond ETFs (HYLB, USHY)

• 100% one “high-conviction” stock (???)

• 31% stocks (AMZN, COST, MSFT, UNH)
• 9% index ETFs (QQQJ, QQQM)
• <1% double/triple leverage ETFs (CWUB, LABU, TQQQ, UPRO, URTY)
• 14% index covered call ETFs (QYLD, RYLD, XYLD)
• 32% preferred stock/bond ETFs (HYLB, PFFD, USHY)
• 14% commodity covered call ETNs (GLDI, SLVO, USOI)

Are dividends
reinvested?

Yes

No

No

Investment schedule:

N/A

Asynchronous

Synchronous

When do I intend to make changes?

Never

When I have a higher-conviction bet than the existing one

Monthly purchases; "I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them"

Is account actively
funded with new contributions?

No

No

No

Is account written about on this blog monthly / ever?

No

No

Yes

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

ETFs Of The Month: CWEB, LABU

Back in June 2021, I asked myself the question "why not dollar-cost average monthly into triple-levered index funds for the next several decades?" - a question so good that I didn't want to know the actual answer - and began a commitment to ongoing purchases of TQQQ, UPRO, and URTY for the foreseeable future.

Nearly a year later, those "risky" investments have not blown up (yay!) and I began to look for additional leveraged investments outside of the indices.  This plan calls for all of the following:

  • Monthly dollar cost averaging, a strategy that has served me well for my first two decades of investing, DCA is an absolute necessity when dealing with...
  • Investment vehicles subject to significant daily/monthly volatility, which double- and triple-leveraged ETFs certainly qualify for, hence the advertised "risk".  To be clear:  the short-term downside potential is a feature, not a bug, when coupling the magic powers of DCA with...
  • Massive multi-decade outperformance potential (duh).
So I put on my Warren Buffett/Rip Van Winkle hat and found two instruments of choice:  SynBio via LABU, and China via CWEB (an investment of which Charlie Munger might approve).

As one last step before diving into the pool that I had dipped my toes in, I asked myself the follow-up question:  "is this really going to work?  really?"  The short answer is yes; the long answer is here, which itself contains links to math and other details that underline the premise that I intuitively knew to be correct immediately upon asking the original question.


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 25/75 split between stocks and yield.  As seen below, it is currently 41/59.

I am in no rush to flip into yield. I would rather let my winners run forever.  However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond, preferred stock, leveraged ETFs and/or covered call ETF/Ns. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.62T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $469.8B revenue
  • 9% revenue growth
  • $96.1B cash
  • $139.4B debt
  • $46.3B operating cash flow
  • $-0.8B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $2.26T market cap
  • 0.8% dividend yield
  • $184.9B revenue
  • 20% revenue growth
  • $125.4B cash
  • $80.4B debt
  • $83.9B operating cash flow
  • $46.5B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell).  As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETF/ETNs - until I sell them.

Microsoft (MSFT) 15.54%
Amazon (AMZN) 12.01%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 11.02%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 10.62%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 10.19%
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) 6.86%
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) 6.19%
Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs (USOI) 5.65%
Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO) 5.42%
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) 4.62%
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) 3.01%
Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI) 2.54%
Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) 2.51%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.84%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.74%
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) 0.11%
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) 0.05%
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 (URTY) 0.03%
Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares (LABU) 0.02%
Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Bull 2X Shares (CWEB) 0.02%

Friday, January 7, 2022

On The Turning Away: Sold GOOGL, ISRG, V

Unaware how the ranks have grown
Driven on by a heart of stone
We could find that we're all alone
In the dream of the proud

The sales of GOOGL, ISRG, and V were not easy.  They had annualized returns of 17%, 11%, and 19% respectively, and comprised nearly 10% of of my portfolio's overall valuation.  One might say that they were victims of their own success.   

The proceeds from this sale were (once again) directed into my favorite basket of yield ETF/Ns:  the index covered calls of QYLD, RYLD, and XYLD; and the gold/silver/oil covered calls of GLDI, SLVO, and USOI.

With this most recent rotation from stocks into yield, my portfolio now yields a projected 6% annually.  This could grow as much as to 8% annually.


Boilerplate time...

As a stretch goal: for dividend income purposes, I'd like this portfolio to eventually be as much as a 50/50 25/75 split between stocks and yield. As seen below, it is currently 40/60.

I am in no rush to flip into yield. I would rather let my winners run forever. However, if in any given month I see no stocks that present themselves as especially good buying opportunities, I have no reservations in simply adding to my bond, preferred stock, and/or covered call ETF/Ns. It is truly a month-to-month situation (as it has always been!).

For the foreseeable future, I want to track my Big Five Two every month, whether I buy them or not.

Amazon (AMZN)
  • $1.66T market cap
  • no dividend
  • $458.0B revenue
  • 15% revenue growth
  • $79.0B cash
  • $155.8B debt
  • $54.7B operating cash flow
  • $9.3B free cash flow

Microsoft (MSFT)
  • $2.36T market cap
  • 0.8% dividend yield
  • $176.3B revenue
  • 22% revenue growth
  • $130.6B cash
  • $78.9B debt
  • $82.0B operating cash flow
  • $49.8B free cash flow


Here's my current portfolio (buy, hold, and sell). As always, I believe in all of these stocks/ETF/ETNs - until I sell them.

Microsoft (MSFT) 15.15%
Amazon (AMZN) 11.58%
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF (PFFD) 11.36%
iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) 11.29%
Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYLB) 11.20%
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) 6.98%
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD) 6.25%
Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETNs (USOI) 5.22%
Credit Suisse X-Links Silver Shares Covered Call ETN (SLVO) 5.01%
Global X Russell 2000 Covered Call ETF (RYLD) 4.53%
Global X S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (XYLD) 2.94%
Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) 2.66%
Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI) 2.42%
Costco Wholesale (COST) 1.70%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 1.52%
ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) 0.10%
ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) 0.04%
ProShares UltraPro Russell 2000 (URTY) 0.03%