Saturday, October 20, 2007

Stocks Of The Month: LULU, GERN

Time for the monthly (or so) stock housecleaning...

Bought lululemon athletica (LULU) at $46, watched it fall to $41, then pop 36% since to its current price of $55. Which is a nice case study in that its better to be early than late. I find LULU compelling in the same way as Under Armour (UA), in that it has built-in marginalization in its perceived markets. For Under Armour, it was "it's just a specialty football equipment maker" when it's really a broad-market athletic brand like Nike. For lululemon, it is "it's just a specialty yoga clothing maker" - when I think it could be the dominant brand of women's casual clothing for the next decade.

Also bought Geron (GERN) at $8, and it has since fallen to $7.33. This is a flier stock pick on two sure-fire growth segments in the 21st century: 1) stem cell therapy, and 2) intellectual property litigation. I hope that Geron doesn't evolve into just a patent-holding company, and can monetize its R&D findings on its own - but I recognize that in a business area so immature, finding the future game-winner is highly unlikely. Still, investing with the company with the most patents in its industry seems like a decent risk-reward proposition.

On the sell side, Rite Aid (RAD) was let go because it fell to near $4 from its high of $6.74 on June 5th (see, I told you I was going to start following my own rules). I think it still may be a long-term turnaround story, but short-term, there are better places to invest.

Here's my current portfolio. As always, I believe in all of these stocks - until I sell them.

Southern Copper (PCU) 10.16%
Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) 8.02%
Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) 7.85%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 7.59%
PetroChina (PTR) 6.56%
Lululemon (LULU) 6.22%
Baidu (BIDU) 5.57%
Annaly Capital Management (NLY) 5.18%
RMK Advantage Income Fund (RMA) 4.68%
Google (GOOG) 4.54%
Geron (GERN) 4.23%
Apache (APA) 3.94%
Frontline (FRO) 3.90%
Apple (AAPL) 3.60%
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) 3.48%
Capstone Turbine (CPST) 3.38%
Ace Limited (ACE) 2.90%
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) 2.78%
Nokia (NOK) 2.72%
Under Armour (UA) 2.66%